How Heupel's first 49 games compare to other coaches

[WilcoVolsFan]

JH also inherited a ton of talent from Scott Frost in his first year. Don't want to a jerk about it but the record comparison in this article is nothing more than a laughable "feel good" story.

What about a Negavol who spouts off w/out doing a simple internet check to see if their assertion is correct? Surely that's more laughable than a feel good story right?

Josh Heupel - Head Coach - Football Coaches - UCF Athletics
Heupel is the 11th head coach in the history of UCF football. UCF vice president and director of athletics Danny White announced the hire on Dec. 5, 2017.

UCF Football Class ranks
2016 - 65th - UCF 2016 Football Commits
2015 - 71st - https://247sports.com/college/central-florida/Season/2015-Football/Commits/
2014 - 68th - UCF 2014 Football Commits
2013 - 79th - UCF 2013 Football Commits

"a ton of talent"

 

[WilcoVolsFan]

I like Heupel but....

Heupel inherited a UCF team that was undefeated the year before and the clear top team in his conference. In 3 years, his team had been passed by a couple of other teams in his conference.

The 2017 Memphis Tigers were ranked 25th and lost to 62-55 in double-overtime.
The 2017 South Florida bulls were ranked 21st and lost to UCF 49-42.

Huge gaps there. He really let UCF slide didn't he?

 

[1989Vol]

The 2017 Memphis Tigers were ranked 25th and lost to 62-55 in double-overtime.
The 2017 South Florida bulls were ranked 21st and lost to UCF 49-42.

Huge gaps there. He really let UCF slide didn't he?

Lighten up Francis. It was JMO.

In 2018 JH was handed " a ton of talent" from Scott Frost and led UCF to a 12-1 record. U football much?

I want JH to succeed but it is clear (do your simple internet search) that he got worse during the 3 years he was at UCF.

 

[SoonerVolunteerCavalry]

Great post, OP. JH has been a winner just about everywhere- as a player and coach at OU, as well as UCF. He knows how to win and is a likable guy. Vols are in a tough conference with good programs to compete against, which will elevate the level of play. May not have double digit win figures every year, but I guarantee Vols will compete with the best and win their fair share.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

What about a Negavol who spouts off w/out doing a simple internet check to see if their assertion is correct? Surely that's more laughable than a feel good story right?

Josh Heupel - Head Coach - Football Coaches - UCF Athletics
Heupel is the 11th head coach in the history of UCF football. UCF vice president and director of athletics Danny White announced the hire on Dec. 5, 2017.

UCF Football Class ranks
2016 - 65th - UCF 2016 Football Commits
2015 - 71st - UCF 2015 Football Commits
2014 - 68th - UCF 2014 Football Commits
2013 - 79th - UCF 2013 Football Commits

"a ton of talent"

"A ton of talent" is relative to the competition though, not a lot of recruiting powerhouses on UCF's schedule, and UCF did go 13-0 and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl the year before Heupel got there to be fair. Going 7-6 with Pruitt's depleted charges is more impressive to me than what Heupel did going 12-1, 10-3 and 6-4 at UCF in the subsequent years.

 

[WilcoVolsFan]

"A ton of talent" is relative to the competition though, not a lot of recruiting powerhouses on UCF's schedule, and UCF did go 13-0 and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl the year before Heupel got there to be fair. Going 7-6 with Pruitt's depleted charges is more impressive to me than what Heupel did going 12-1, 10-3 and 6-4 at UCF in the subsequent years.

and still not true

 

[Lawrence Wright]

I have to admit that I was wrong about Dan Mullen.

You’re not alone.

 

[WilcoVolsFan]

You’re not alone.

(Slowly raises hand also.)

What a downfall. In under a year, dude went from giving 'Bama all it could handle in the SEC championship to getting all he could handle from Samford in the Homecoming scheduled-patsy game.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

and still not true

You don't see the difference between taking over a 3-7 team that lost 30+ players to the portal and inheriting a 13-0 team that won a NY6 bowl? Our improvement this year is easily more impressive than anything Heupel did at UCF.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

You don't see the difference between taking over a 3-7 team that lost 30+ players to the portal and inheriting a 13-0 team that won a NY6 bowl? Our improvement this year is easily more impressive than anything Heupel did at UCF.

Don't let the Covid season (2020) mislead you. It was a weird animal for everyone involved. You can't take UCF's 6-4 result that season at face value, nor can you take Tennessee's 3-7 outcome without interpretation.

For instance: you don't have to like Jeremy Pruitt to acknowledge that 3-7 in an all-SEC 2020 schedule is probably about 6-6 in a normal year. And who knows what UCF might've posted if 2020 hadn't been so weird, but probably 6-4 isn't it.

So all you have to go on for Josh Heupel's time at UCF, really, is that he went 12-1 and 10-3 in his two normal seasons. Is that a downtick? Or just the natural vagaries of college football? To help make this point, consider that Saban will go 15-0 one year, then 13-2 the next, and no one assumes things are over for him.

In short: two data points are never enough to establish a trend line.

I agree with you that Heupel and staff did some wonderful things in their first season with the Vols, but from my perspective that's more about the conditions in which they worked (NCAA and school investigations, massive off-season desertions from the roster, complete restart with new scheme, etc) than the change in number of wins from one season to the next.

Sure, at the end of the day, a coach is measured on his wins and losses. But we're not at the end of the day yet, with Josh. Still early in his tenure, we're all hoping. Best perspective, for now, is a wait and see approach.

Go Vols!

 

[butchna]

Fair and the same logic applies to Lincoln Riley as well as he took over a team so much better than anyone else in conference.

But we will have idiots on VN who say Heupel > Saban because of first 49 games without any context

As long as we have dedicated souls to quash such horrible fan sentiment on a fan board.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Don't let the Covid season (2020) mislead you. It was a weird animal for everyone involved. You can't take UCF's 6-4 result that season at face value, nor can you take Tennessee's 3-7 outcome without interpretation.

For instance: you don't have to like Jeremy Pruitt to acknowledge that 3-7 in an all-SEC 2020 schedule is probably about 6-6 in a normal year. And who knows what UCF might've posted if 2020 hadn't been so weird, but probably 6-4 isn't it.

So all you have to go on for Josh Heupel's time at UCF, really, is that he went 12-1 and 10-3 in his two normal seasons. Is that a downtick? Or just the natural vagaries of college football? To help make this point, consider that Saban will go 15-0 one year, then 13-2 the next, and no one assumes things are over for him.

In short: two data points are never enough to establish a trend line.

I agree with you that Heupel and staff did some wonderful things in their first season with the Vols, but from my perspective that's more about the conditions in which they worked (NCAA and school investigations, massive off-season desertions from the roster, complete restart with new scheme, etc) than the change in number of wins from one season to the next.

Sure, at the end of the day, a coach is measured on his wins and losses. But we're not at the end of the day yet, with Josh. Still early in his tenure, we're all hoping. Best perspective, for now, is a wait and see approach.

Go Vols!

I agree with alot of stuff you said in principle. I'd still have to say that we went 4-4 against our all-conference schedule this year, that's an improvement. If last year had been normal, and you look at who we played, we likely end up with a 3-5 conference record and get booty blasted by Oklahoma, so that's 6-6, assuming Pruitt could get his players motivated to play the 3 cupcakes, which I'm not sure you can assume given his history. Anyway, take 30+ players out of Pruitt's roster including many of the most highly rated ones and 7-5 was a helluva job, and in my mind at least, a bit more impressive than inheriting a 13-0 team and then going 12-1 and 10-3.

 

[WilcoVolsFan]

You don't see the difference between taking over a 3-7 team that lost 30+ players to the portal and inheriting a 13-0 team that won a NY6 bowl? Our improvement this year is easily more impressive than anything Heupel did at UCF.

I do. And to be fair, I should have edited the comment down to the “ton of talent” part for clarification that that’s what I was responding to.

Which is still bull$hit you’re doubling down on and moving the goalposts. UCFs recruiting classes during the Frost era were in line w/other AAC programs, several who were nationally ranked in the years prior & post. Frost’s final team went undefeated & was a great team, but it didn’t completely blow away the competition either. Memphis & South Florida we’re right there too and Cincy was about to blow up. This narrative that Heupel was handed the roster equivalent of the 2001 Hurricanes & was playing all Directional State U programs is bull$hit & lazy posting. He inherited a very solid program with competitive talent and kept it going at a very high rate of success.

But sometimes luck has a lot to do with it. One missed catch or one less penalty, and we lose the Kentucky game and suddenly this entire season is looked at differently by people like you. 1 more slightly better thrown ball against Pitt or Ole Miss, or one less blown call against Purdue or Ole Miss and the same is true in the opposite direction.