How Heupel's first 49 games compare to other coaches

#3
#3
wmcovol said:
I’d say screwed in 3 games. (Pitt, Ole Miss & Purdue)

If you heard the comments by the ACC commissioner this past week regarding CFP expansion, you realize there is some animosity toward the SEC from the ACC.
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I still think if Hooker starts the Pitt game we win. But the other 2 most definitely was the finest screw jobs of all year.
 
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#5
#5
Not sure how much weight AAC wins have compared to Power 5 wins in CFB. JH also inherited a ton of talent from Scott Frost in his first year. Don't want to a jerk about it but the record comparison in this article is nothing more than a laughable "feel good" story.

Look no further than the insufferable UF fans who are boasting that Billy Napier will have them in the CFB playoff in 2-3 years because he was successful at ULL. The talent at ULL is a dayum joke compared to Power 5 talent. That's WHY they were playing CFB at ULL.

I appreciate what the article was doing but Coach Heupel has work to do, past records elsewhere don't mean squat. Pruitt just about destroyed this program by the time he left. In all fairness JH needs 3 seasons (starting 2022) to recruit his own talent before we can evaluate his coaching abilities. Hopefully we get better with each season leading up to his 4th year. JMO
 
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#7
#7
I like Heupel but....

Heupel inherited a UCF team that was undefeated the year before and the clear top team in his conference. In 3 years, his team had been passed by a couple of other teams in his conference.
 
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#8
#8
VolForLife83 said:
He's in good company and we all know we were screwed in 2 losses😎

How Josh Heupel's record through first 49 games of career compares to other coaches
Click to expand...
I like the premise of Zach Ragan's article: compare Heupel's start to successful active head coaches, see if we can discern anything. Unfortunately, Zach didn't do much with it. I'll try to push a little further.

Since our goal at Tennessee is to get back to winning championships, let's compare Josh's record to date with the first 49 games of every active head coach with a national title. Five guys meet that criterion: Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, and Mack Brown.

What I'd like to do is chart out their winning percentage over time. From game to game. See if there's anything in the curve of each coach that might tell us something.

But first, we need to acknowledge all these coaches didn't get the same kind of start. I'd group them into three categories, based on their first head coaching gigs:

-- Given the keys to a finely tuned muscle car: Jimbo Fisher certainly inherited a sweet ride from Bobby Bowden at Florida State. And Kirby Smart was given an already-well-tuned machine at Georgia. These two fellas had every advantage...they started in the Power 5, and they started in a winning program with a mature, rich roster. One would expect them to start fast, and stay fast.

-- Jumping behind the wheel of a well-tuned Pinto: listen, starting out in the Group of 5, as Nick Saban (Toledo) and Josh Heupel (UCF) did, isn't all bad. Gives a fellow a chance to get his footing before he has to face the big boys of the Power 5 conferences. On the other hand, one might expect a dip in success as the coach makes the step up to the big leagues. Funny enough, we see just that in the early career arc of both these coaches.

-- Taking over under a yellow caution flag...and your car was involved in the wreck: Some folks just gotta follow the dude who got fired. And he got fired for a reason. The program wasn't doing so well. This implies rebuild...which implies a slow start. Dabo Swinney (Clemson) and Mack Brown (App State, Tulane, and UNC) both certainly started slow...but Dabo found a way to get things moving a lot earlier than Mack.

Okay, so does the data support these expectations? Here's the chart. It tracks each coach's winning percentage, game by game, over their first 49 games. For each of them, most or all of four seasons of football are included. For a few, the early games of their fifth season got in as well.

1642366880119.png

So what, if anything, does that tell us?

First thing it tells me is, it's amazing Mack Brown was allowed to keep a head coaching job long enough to get good. It truly took him a while to get back up to a 50% win rate, much less the 70%+ win rate most title-winning head coaches end up with.

The other thing I get from this is, the first 49 games aren't long enough to know much. Aside from Mack, after giving the first 10-15 games for things to settle in, there simply isn't much difference between any of these guys. Nick and Dabo end up at the 49th game with a win rate around 60%, Josh around 70%, while Kirby and Jimbo are near 80%. But I don't think any of us are concluding that Jimbo and Kirby are better coaches than Nick and Dabo.

Maybe I was wrong. Maybe this isn't an interesting hypothesis Zach came up with, after all. Maybe there's not much to learn from the first 49 games.

Screw that guy. Terrible article.


[lol just kidding at the end...but really, there's not a lot to learn here, it doesn't seem, except Mack Brown must've had compromising photos of his AD to keep his job beyond year 5]

Go Vols!
 
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#10
#10
If Tennessee had one of the Miss St as a crossover instead of bama, then Heupel winning % would probably be about 8% higher each year too.

Also, if we only played Florida and Pitt later in the year then I think we definitely win at least one of those games. Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda!
 
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#11
#11
Coach JH needs to show improvement next year. Losing Hooker next year will be a set back just about no matter who ends up being his younger replacement. So, next year 8-9 wins but 2023 is a ???? GBO
 
#12
#12
BigOrangeMojo said:
I like Heupel but....

Heupel inherited a UCF team that was undefeated the year before and the clear top team in his conference. In 3 years, his team had been passed by a couple of other teams in his conference.
Click to expand...

That’s fair. Although the Covid year included a lot of caveats, like enormous injuries and opt outs.

It’s also fair to also consider that he inherited a decimated roster at Tennessee and overachieved by a lot.
 
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#13
#13
BigOrangeMojo said:
I like Heupel but....

Heupel inherited a UCF team that was undefeated the year before and the clear top team in his conference. In 3 years, his team had been passed by a couple of other teams in his conference.
Click to expand...
He inherited McKenzie Milton at QB...not a team loaded with talent. Milton was a dark horse Heisman contender and Heupel's first season at UCF was great. Milton got hurt and that changed everything. I would argue that Heupel did a solid job after Milton went down, considering the circumstances.
 
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#14
#14
utvols83 said:
He inherited McKenzie Milton at QB...not a team loaded with talent. Milton was a dark horse Heisman contender and Heupel's first season at UCF was great. Milton got hurt and that changed everything. I would argue that Heupel did a solid job after Milton went down, considering the circumstances.
Click to expand...

Fair and the same logic applies to Lincoln Riley as well as he took over a team so much better than anyone else in conference.

But we will have idiots on VN who say Heupel > Saban because of first 49 games without any context
 
#15
#15
BigOrangeMojo said:
I like Heupel but....

Heupel inherited a UCF team that was undefeated the year before and the clear top team in his conference. In 3 years, his team had been passed by a couple of other teams in his conference.
Click to expand...

I know what I saw at Tennessee this year. It was a complete train wreck & he made something of it. With a few breaks, it could have been special. I don’t give a damn about UCF. If I’m wrong, I’ll admit it.
 
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#17
#17
VFL-82-JP said:
I like the premise of Zach Ragan's article: compare Heupel's start to successful active head coaches, see if we can discern anything. Unfortunately, Zach didn't do much with it. I'll try to push a little further.

Since our goal at Tennessee is to get back to winning championships, let's compare Josh's record to date with the first 49 games of every active head coach with a national title. Five guys meet that criterion: Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, and Mack Brown.

What I'd like to do is chart out their winning percentage over time. From game to game. See if there's anything in the curve of each coach that might tell us something.

But first, we need to acknowledge all these coaches didn't get the same kind of start. I'd group them into three categories, based on their first head coaching gigs:

-- Given the keys to a finely tuned muscle car: Jimbo Fisher certainly inherited a sweet ride from Bobby Bowden at Florida State. And Kirby Smart was given an already-well-tuned machine at Georgia. These two fellas had every advantage...they started in the Power 5, and they started in a winning program with a mature, rich roster. One would expect them to start fast, and stay fast.

-- Jumping behind the wheel of a well-tuned Pinto: listen, starting out in the Group of 5, as Nick Saban (Toledo) and Josh Heupel (UCF) did, isn't all bad. Gives a fellow a chance to get his footing before he has to face the big boys of the Power 5 conferences. On the other hand, one might expect a dip in success as the coach makes the step up to the big leagues. Funny enough, we see just that in the early career arc of both these coaches.

-- Taking over under a yellow caution flag...and your car was involved in the wreck: Some folks just gotta follow the dude who got fired. And he got fired for a reason. The program wasn't doing so well. This implies rebuild...which implies a slow start. Dabo Swinney (Clemson) and Mack Brown (App State, Tulane, and UNC) both certainly started slow...but Dabo found a way to get things moving a lot earlier than Mack.

Okay, so does the data support these expectations? Here's the chart. It tracks each coach's winning percentage, game by game, over their first 49 games. For each of them, most or all of four seasons of football are included. For a few, the early games of their fifth season got in as well.

View attachment 428708

So what, if anything, does that tell us?

First thing it tells me is, it's amazing Mack Brown was allowed to keep a head coaching job long enough to get good. It truly took him a while to get back up to a 50% win rate, much less the 70%+ win rate most title-winning head coaches end up with.

The other thing I get from this is, the first 49 games aren't long enough to know much. Aside from Mack, after giving the first 10-15 games for things to settle in, there simply isn't much difference between any of these guys. Nick and Dabo end up at the 49th game with a win rate around 60%, Josh around 70%, while Kirby and Jimbo are near 80%. But I don't think any of us are concluding that Jimbo and Kirby are better coaches than Nick and Dabo.

Maybe I was wrong. Maybe this isn't an interesting hypothesis Zach came up with, after all. Maybe there's not much to learn from the first 49 games.

Screw that guy. Terrible article.


[lol just kidding at the end...but really, there's not a lot to learn here, it doesn't seem, except Mack Brown must've had compromising photos of his AD to keep his job beyond year 5]

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

Mack Brown's head coaching career started in 1983. His first 49 games are completely irrelevant to any sort of discussion about modem football coaching.
 
#19
#19
BigOrangeMojo said:
I like Heupel but....

Heupel inherited a UCF team that was undefeated the year before and the clear top team in his conference. In 3 years, his team had been passed by a couple of other teams in his conference.
Click to expand...
To be fair, that had more to do with Heupel being down to his 3rd or 4th string QB due to injury. Dillon Gabriel turned out good, but he was still green that year.
 
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#20
#20
VolForLife83 said:
He's in good company and we all know we were screwed in 2 losses😎

How Josh Heupel's record through first 49 games of career compares to other coaches
Click to expand...

In summary and what we all know:
With Heupel, we'll be fine; he's a good coach and knows how to run a program
Those curves have a lot of SEC coaches; competition going forward will be very tough
We need more talented players, especially on defense to compete at the top tier level of the SEC; probably 2 years off
Staff cohesion is key to prevent those downward bumps; Heupel seems like a good guy to work for
 
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#21
#21
Doesn't work. You can't compare coaches using these metrics. They all inherit different situations when hired. How bad was the program when hired? It's been a while since a program as high profile as our has fallen this far thanks to the transfer portal. NCAA investigation, top talent transferring out en mass, revolving door of failing coaches for 14 years, in the toughest conference, and don't even get us started on the Athletic Directors. Short of a player killing someone on the field, I don't know how it could have gotten worse.
I don't k now how we lured any coach here. And let's be honest, no one in our fan base considered CJH a home run hire.
 
#22
#22
BigOrangeMojo said:
I like Heupel but....

Heupel inherited a UCF team that was undefeated the year before and the clear top team in his conference. In 3 years, his team had been passed by a couple of other teams in his conference.
Click to expand...
They were undefeated the year after Frost left too and lost in the fiesta bowl to LSU by 7 and lost more than half the team to graduation and CJH still had a winning record in the next 2 seasons...One of them the covid season where several players opted out.
 
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#24
#24
VFL-82-JP said:
I like the premise of Zach Ragan's article: compare Heupel's start to successful active head coaches, see if we can discern anything. Unfortunately, Zach didn't do much with it. I'll try to push a little further.

Since our goal at Tennessee is to get back to winning championships, let's compare Josh's record to date with the first 49 games of every active head coach with a national title. Five guys meet that criterion: Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, and Mack Brown.

What I'd like to do is chart out their winning percentage over time. From game to game. See if there's anything in the curve of each coach that might tell us something.

But first, we need to acknowledge all these coaches didn't get the same kind of start. I'd group them into three categories, based on their first head coaching gigs:

-- Given the keys to a finely tuned muscle car: Jimbo Fisher certainly inherited a sweet ride from Bobby Bowden at Florida State. And Kirby Smart was given an already-well-tuned machine at Georgia. These two fellas had every advantage...they started in the Power 5, and they started in a winning program with a mature, rich roster. One would expect them to start fast, and stay fast.

-- Jumping behind the wheel of a well-tuned Pinto: listen, starting out in the Group of 5, as Nick Saban (Toledo) and Josh Heupel (UCF) did, isn't all bad. Gives a fellow a chance to get his footing before he has to face the big boys of the Power 5 conferences. On the other hand, one might expect a dip in success as the coach makes the step up to the big leagues. Funny enough, we see just that in the early career arc of both these coaches.

-- Taking over under a yellow caution flag...and your car was involved in the wreck: Some folks just gotta follow the dude who got fired. And he got fired for a reason. The program wasn't doing so well. This implies rebuild...which implies a slow start. Dabo Swinney (Clemson) and Mack Brown (App State, Tulane, and UNC) both certainly started slow...but Dabo found a way to get things moving a lot earlier than Mack.

Okay, so does the data support these expectations? Here's the chart. It tracks each coach's winning percentage, game by game, over their first 49 games. For each of them, most or all of four seasons of football are included. For a few, the early games of their fifth season got in as well.

View attachment 428708

So what, if anything, does that tell us?

First thing it tells me is, it's amazing Mack Brown was allowed to keep a head coaching job long enough to get good. It truly took him a while to get back up to a 50% win rate, much less the 70%+ win rate most title-winning head coaches end up with.

The other thing I get from this is, the first 49 games aren't long enough to know much. Aside from Mack, after giving the first 10-15 games for things to settle in, there simply isn't much difference between any of these guys. Nick and Dabo end up at the 49th game with a win rate around 60%, Josh around 70%, while Kirby and Jimbo are near 80%. But I don't think any of us are concluding that Jimbo and Kirby are better coaches than Nick and Dabo.

Maybe I was wrong. Maybe this isn't an interesting hypothesis Zach came up with, after all. Maybe there's not much to learn from the first 49 games.

Screw that guy. Terrible article.


[lol just kidding at the end...but really, there's not a lot to learn here, it doesn't seem, except Mack Brown must've had compromising photos of his AD to keep his job beyond year 5]

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
Certainly enjoyed your writings better than the original by Ragan. GBO
 
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#25
#25
This article is just a bunch of meaningless numbers. There is a lot more to look at than this. Really can’t make any determination from it. If I just take meaningless numbers, tell me something isn’t wrong with this:

2020 - Jeremy Pruitt against 10 P5 teams: 3-7
2021 - Josh Heupel against 10 P5 teams: 4-6

There’s no way you’re telling me those two seasons are only 1 game difference.
 
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