There are only four this year, used to be upwards of ten. Shows how much the regulars have improved as road racers.
Based on qualifying with Said the highest placed at 17th, I don't expect much. If Said can be patient, and the team make a well timed pit stop or two, he can be a contender. He has the ability to pass the field. Magnussen and Ekstrom will not be factors IMO. PJ Jones has never been a contender.
Of the regulars with road racing backgrounds, I give the best chance to Montoya, followed by Ambrose, R. Gordon, Allmendinger, Speed, and Papis. I predict the last three to all be involved in crashes.
I predict a regular without road racing background to win as usually happens. Gordon, Johnson, Stewart, & Kahne being good choices. Ky Busch, Ku Busch, Edwards, Martin, Newman and Truex are possibilities. Dark Horse is Menard.