How difficult it is to win cws

#1
U

ut_eyedoc

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#1
I don't post ever, but I have loved watching our beloved vols baseball this year. They have been so dominate that you almost expect them to win every game. I'm so pumped about the upcoming games that I'm rearranging my schedule so I can watch them. Our beloved fan base (and there is none like it) feel like I do that this team is destined to win it all. I did a little research and it is really eye opening to see the statistics. Only 1 time has the overall #1 seed won the CWS. (since 1999) Now the chances of getting to the CWS (If ranked #1 ) is around 75%. Not to be the Debbie Downer, but I didn't appreciate just how difficult it is to win once you get to the super regionals. It really doesn't compare to #1 ratings in football and basketball winning it all. None the less we CAN do it. Go Vols Here's how often each seed makes the Men's College World Series
 
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#5
#5
First things first, let's get there.
The best part is it's not one and done like basketball.
You can lose one and still have an opportunity. Obviously you want to stay out of the losers bracket but is not a death sentence.
A stout pitching staff can pull you through it. Something the Vols have.
 
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#7
#7
ut_eyedoc said:
I don't post ever, but I have loved watching our beloved vols baseball this year. They have been so dominate that you almost expect them to win every game. I'm so pumped about the upcoming games that I'm rearranging my schedule so I can watch them. Our beloved fan base (and there is none like it) feel like I do that this team is destined to win it all. I did a little research and it is really eye opening to see the statistics. Only 1 time has the overall #1 seed won the CWS. (since 1999) Now the chances of getting to the CWS (If ranked #1 ) is around 75%. Not to be the Debbie Downer, but I didn't appreciate just how difficult it is to win once you get to the super regionals. It really doesn't compare to #1 ratings in football and basketball winning it all. None the less we CAN do it. Go Vols Here's how often each seed makes the Men's College World Series
Click to expand...

Glad you posted, Doc!
 
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#8
#8
Thinking big picture .... from a conference point of view .... not hard at all if you are an SEC fan. I estimate the odds are about 50%, based on the reasonable potential that there will be 4 SEC teams in the final 8. (I hope not, but I would not bet against it!) Secretly, I am hoping there is only 1 ACC team that makes the final eight.

SEC - 5 [TN, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss]
ACC - 4 [Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Louisville]
Big 12 - 2 [Texas, Oklahoma]
Pac 12 - 2 [Stanford, Oregon State]
AAC - 1 East Carolina
Big East - 1 UConn
Sunbelt - 1 Southern Miss

Notes:
Really there are 7 SEC teams in the supers (when you add in TX and OK :^)))) !
There are 3 POWER Conference Clashes SEC vs ACC! (4 if you were to count OK vs VT)
1 'GRUDGE' match: SM vs OM.
 
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#9
#9
SN-A-C Orange said:
Thinking big picture .... from a conference point of view .... not hard at all if you are an SEC fan. I estimate the odds are about 50%, based on the reasonable potential that there will be 4 SEC teams in the final 8. (I hope not, but I would not bet against it!) Secretly, I am hoping there is only 1 ACC team that makes the final eight.

SEC - 5 [TN, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss]
ACC - 4 [Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Louisville]
Big 12 - 2 [Texas, Oklahoma]
Pac 12 - 2 [Stanford, Oregon State]
AAC - 1 East Carolina
Big East - 1 UConn
Sunbelt - 1 Southern Miss

Notes:
Really there are 7 SEC teams in the supers (when you add in TX and OK :^)))) !
There are 3 POWER Conference Clashes SEC vs ACC! (4 if you were to count OK vs VT)
1 'GRUDGE' match: SM vs OM.
Click to expand...
Basically we’ve already won it.
 
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#10
#10
nashvillepanther said:
The hardest title to win out of the main male sports. Size, strength, and talent aren't the end-all factors like football, basketball, etc.
Click to expand...
Disagree. Basketball (NCAA Tournament) is much more random and doesn’t allow for a mulligan via double elimination, nor a second mulligan via three-game series in the championship. Basketball requires perfection across a 6-game tournament. No margin for error. In the baseball postseason, you can lose up to 4 games in the NCAA Tournament across Regionals, Super Regionals, and the College World Series and still win the title.
 
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#11
#11
cncchris33 said:
Disagree. Basketball (NCAA Tournament) is much more random and doesn’t allow for a mulligan via double elimination, nor a second mulligan via three-game series in the championship. Basketball requires perfection across a 6-game tournament. No margin for error. In the baseball postseason, you can lose up to 4 games in the NCAA Tournament across Regionals, Super Regionals, and the College World Series and still win the title.
Click to expand...

Aren't Regionals, Super Regionals, and CWS all double elimination up to a point? You can't lose 4 games and win the CWS. Losing 4 games means you lost 2 games in the CWS and you are out.
 
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#12
#12
theroyz71 said:
Aren't Regionals, Super Regionals, and CWS all double elimination up to a point? You can't lose 4 games and win the CWS. Losing 4 games means you lost 2 games in the CWS and you are out.
Click to expand...

You can lose 1 in regionals, 1 in super regionals, 1 in the double elimination bracket of CWS, but then when it gets down to 2 teams, it's best out of 3, so you can lose 1 more, 4 total.
 
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#13
#13
Volprofch05 said:
You can lose 1 in regionals, 1 in super regionals, 1 in the double elimination bracket of CWS, but then when it gets down to 2 teams, it's best out of 3, so you can lose 1 more, 4 total.
Click to expand...

Ah, I didn't realize the championship series was separate from the double elimination portion. Thanks.
 
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#14
#14
cncchris33 said:
Disagree. Basketball (NCAA Tournament) is much more random and doesn’t allow for a mulligan via double elimination, nor a second mulligan via three-game series in the championship. Basketball requires perfection across a 6-game tournament. No margin for error. In the baseball postseason, you can lose up to 4 games in the NCAA Tournament across Regionals, Super Regionals, and the College World Series and still win the title.
Click to expand...

In basketball, the SEC champion typically wins around 80% of their conference games. In baseball that is more like 70%. Baseball is slightly more random. Without double elimination, you might as well pull names out of a hat. Only once has the #1 seed won the WS. In comparison, 3 overall #1 seeds have won the NCAAT in the same time period. Again, both very random but baseball slightly moreso.
 
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#17
#17
cncchris33 said:
Disagree. Basketball (NCAA Tournament) is much more random and doesn’t allow for a mulligan via double elimination, nor a second mulligan via three-game series in the championship. Basketball requires perfection across a 6-game tournament. No margin for error. In the baseball postseason, you can lose up to 4 games in the NCAA Tournament across Regionals, Super Regionals, and the College World Series and still win the title.
Click to expand...
True but you'd have to play 16 games and go 12-4. That's pretty difficult in baseball.
 
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#18
#18
I don’t think comparing sports makes much sense. It’s hard to win a Championship in any sport. I believe the Zags, were 31-1 last year, that’s like half a season for baseball, Pat’s undefeated season, Phil’s undefeated’98 team…this baseball team has a chance to be in that discussion.
 
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#20
#20
37620VOL said:
In basketball, the SEC champion typically wins around 80% of their conference games. In baseball that is more like 70%. Baseball is slightly more random. Without double elimination, you might as well pull names out of a hat. Only once has the #1 seed won the WS. In comparison, 3 overall #1 seeds have won the NCAAT in the same time period. Again, both very random but baseball slightly moreso.
Click to expand...
Over the last 10 NCAA Basketball Tournaments and the last 10 NCAA Baseball Tournaments, 3 basketball teams outside of the top 16 seeds have made it to the finals while only 2 baseball teams outside of the top 16 seeds have made the finals, despite the added benefit of double elimination. It is the double elimination element that helps to cut down on the randomness to a degree. The cream more often than not, rises to the top in baseball thru the benefit of additional chances.
 
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#21
#21
txbo said:
True but you'd have to play 16 games and go 12-4. That's pretty difficult in baseball.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying it's easy. I'm just saying it's easier than asking a team to go 6-0 with zero margin for error.
 
#23
#23
txbo said:
I disagree and I bet it's rare that a team actually lost 4 games and still won it all. Coming out of the losers bracket puts you at a huge disadvantage.
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Again, I'm not saying it doesn't create a disadvantage. It certainly does. Being at a disadvantage beats heading home, though, doesn't it? I'm sure the men's basketball team would love to have had the opportunity to play out of the loser's bracket. I'm just shocked that I have to justify the idea that a single-elimination tournament is a more difficult envioronment than a double-elimination tournament, much less what equates to 4 small double-elimination tournaments (Regionals, Supers, CWS, CWS Final series).

And it doesn't really have to be an extreme example to justify it. If Tennessee goes 2-1 against Notre Dame, this weekend and then runs thru the CWS to the title, then they were still afforded a misstep that no NCAA basketball champ ever received.

I respect your opinion, I just can't bring myself to agree with it.
 
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#24
#24
cncchris33 said:
Disagree. Basketball (NCAA Tournament) is much more random and doesn’t allow for a mulligan via double elimination, nor a second mulligan via three-game series in the championship. Basketball requires perfection across a 6-game tournament. No margin for error. In the baseball postseason, you can lose up to 4 games in the NCAA Tournament across Regionals, Super Regionals, and the College World Series and still win the title.
Click to expand...

Interesting perspective. Baseball has more upsets and less talent disparity across all levels of competition, which was the basis of my thinking. Some Florida JUCO teams are better than northern D-1 teams.

Would Fresno State (or a similar team) ever win March Madness?
 
#25
#25
One thing I will add to the discussion, because I do believe it’s mostly apples and oranges. It seems we are comparing football and both Men’s and Women’s basketball, seems like we should consider softball as well.

It’s a much steeper climb scholarship wise, in baseball and softball. Baseball should, and softball to a degree,should take longer to build. I think we would all agree from a resources stand point…the Football, Basketball programs and due to the longevity of the Weekly’s, Softball, have all been given the resources to be at least competitive. CTV has earned what he will be getting but he’s been at a deficit for most of his tenure. IMO it makes his accomplishments pretty remarkable.

GBO!!!
 
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