I agree with your prediction. Because of the restructure on Dooley's contract when he got us to a bowl game in year 1 (or zero), the large buyout number was extended to 2015 as I understand it. It'll cost the same to fire him this year, next year or the year after. There's pretty much zero chance that the product on the field will produce better results next year and each year that the Vols are down equals huge downticks in revenue for the UTAD and the very real possibility that some people who turn away out of frustration will never come back. Additionally, DD is not going to be able to sign the kind of recruiting class he needs to compete for an SEC championship with all of the noise about his job security and that noise will not end until he either wins some big games or goes away. The AD cannot wait until 2015 for the buyout to go down.
If Dooley really wants to stay here for another year to try and prove himself, he'd renegotiate his contract immediately so that the buyout would go down by at least a couple of million $ (the amount he will earn in salary during 2013) after the 2013 season. If Dooley really thinks he can turn it around with another season, this move would incentivize keeping him for another season.