Here Comes the Recession

#201
#201
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Some can but it's mostly luck. It's not wise to be concentrated in any individual security, but that's what it would take to outperform a market index. You can buy funds that mirror those averages, but funds, especially large ones, have to also include the crappy companies.
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Wow, I thought you were a stock picker type and swore by your individual stock picks.
 
#202
#202
Thunder Good-Oil said:
CAT hasn't been the best place to be while the US$ is strong and China's economic growth flattens. But most of the damage to the stock price is probably behind us. I like Deere for the agriculture exposure. As long as our trade negotiators pressure China to buy more US goods if they want to have access to the US consumer, it bodes well for the AG industry.
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I’ve been with cat since 1990. My dad since the early 80s , it’s been quite the ride .
 
#203
#203
VolStrom said:
Wow, I thought you were a stock picker type and swore by your individual stock picks.
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I buy funds and individual stocks. I never swore by any pick. I just look for opportunities which are easier to find in individual names rather than broad averages. I haven't traded as much in recent years, but I've added a lot to the buy and hold returns. Traders find opportunities with volatility. Individual stocks are more volatile than broad averages. Another case for individual stocks is that you can actually see which companies are doing well. It's easy to see when the Home Depot or Costco parking lots are packed or when your flight has a lot of empty sets or if the company that you work for is adding or laying off employees. You don't get that information if investing in QQQQ, DIA, SPY, etc.

For those focused on managing their tax liability, individual stocks give them much more control over harvesting loses. Some mutual funds could distribute their cap gains in the 4th quarter, only to lose a lot of value early in the following year thereby leaving their investors with a tax bill and assets with less value to sell to raise funds to cover their tax bill.
 
#204
#204
0nelilreb said:
I’ve been with cat since 1990. My dad since the early 80s , it’s been quite the ride .
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I can't remember when I bought it. Maybe around 10 years ago. I think I've done better with MasterCard bought around that time. Blackrock and Home Depot have been good to me. 2 of my largest holdings.
 
#205
#205
Stock market had a great run. All good things must come to an end. The deep state will make certain Trump's stock market victories come to an end before the election. ;-)
 
#206
#206
#207
#207
MontyPython said:
More indication that it's time to sell...
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump

The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
123K
4:42 PM - Feb 24, 2020
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He’s absolutely right on the bolded part. They’re looking very good to me also.

You should sell though Mortimer!
 
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#208
#208
Self-induced recession is coming. This may be the tip of the iceberg. I think a full blown, sharp, but short contraction is now highly probable.

Disney Shut Down
 
#210
#210
  • The average correction for the S&P 500 since World War II lasts four months and sees equities slide 13 percent before bottoming.
  • But bear markets average a loss of 30.4 percent and last 13 months; it takes stocks nearly 22 months, on average, to recover.
  • “The inability of oversold markets to bounce suggests investors worried by either systemic financial market event or recession,” BofAML’s Michael Hartnett writes.
The average correction for the S&P 500 since World War II lasts four months and sees equities slide 13 percent before bottoming, according to analysis at Goldman Sachs and CNBC.

# # #

We're at -8% or so prior to this morning's open. Still a ways to go down.

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#212
#212
"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked all elementary, middle and high schools nationwide on Thursday to close until late March to help control the spread of the new virus in the country. "

Goodbye worldwide economy. This is gonna get really screwy apparently.
 
#213
#213
MontyPython said:
"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked all elementary, middle and high schools nationwide on Thursday to close until late March to help control the spread of the new virus in the country. "

Goodbye worldwide economy. This is gonna get really screwy apparently.
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Buh bye.
 
#214
#214
MontyPython said:
"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked all elementary, middle and high schools nationwide on Thursday to close until late March to help control the spread of the new virus in the country. "

Goodbye worldwide economy. This is gonna get really screwy apparently.
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Japan is concerned with the Olympic Games.
 
#215
#215
MontyPython said:
"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked all elementary, middle and high schools nationwide on Thursday to close until late March to help control the spread of the new virus in the country. "

Goodbye worldwide economy. This is gonna get really screwy apparently.
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I’m starting to think you have more in common with wacko preppers than you realize.
 
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#216
#216
MontyPython said:
"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked all elementary, middle and high schools nationwide on Thursday to close until late March to help control the spread of the new virus in the country. "

Goodbye worldwide economy. This is gonna get really screwy apparently.
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serveimage
 
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#217
#217
DancingOutlaw said:
I’m starting to think you have more in common with wacko preppers than you realize.
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Confused. Are you denying reality? Do you not agree this sort of activity is going to cause severe economic disruption?

Repeat: All Japanese schools are going to close for a month.
 
#223
#223
utvolpj said:
There's nothing wrong with being prepared. Some may take it a little more extreme than others but a huge segment of the population lacks even the most basic survival skills
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That would be an interesting break down in demographics.
 
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#224
#224
MontyPython said:
Confused. Are you denying reality? Do you not agree this sort of activity is going to cause severe economic disruption?

Repeat: All Japanese schools are going to close for a month.
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I didn’t realize Japanese schools produced goods.
 
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#225
#225
MontyPython said:
A coronavirus outbreak in the US could be cause for global recession: Moody’s Mark Zandi
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Zandi.
Perfect.

The guy who was declaring monthly, all the way down during the mortgage crisis, that we'd reached bottom. A few years later, he was finally right.
Who testified to Congress they didn't see the looming problem with junk mortgages. Even as Moody's was rubber stamping them as investment grade instruments which allowed them to be purchased for pension and mutual funds, and banks.

He also predicted Trump would crash the economy and lose 4 million jobs if elected. In 2018, he forecast 700K lost jobs in 2019. In 2017, stated the Republican tax plan would not significantly impact job growth.

But hey! - maybe, against all odds, Mark came up snake-eyes this time.
Wheel....of....Fortune - YAAAAAY!
 
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