Gun control debate (merged)

[RockyTop85]

No, they are not relevant in the least when discussing a correlation between gun ownership and violent crime. First they include suicide in their firearm suicide statistics, suicide is not a violent crime. Second they go into the statistics of being shot while in possession of a firearm vs not being in possession while being being assaulted. That is nonsense since the assault is a violent crime.

I don’t think you understood it.

Siegel, Ross, and King III (2013) examined firearm prevalence and firearm homicides from 1981 to 2010. The authors collected information for the fifty states from 1981 to 2010 and used suicide by firearm as a proxy for firearm prevalence. Using a negative binomial regression model the researchers found that firearm prevalence was a significant predictor of firearm homicide. In fact, Siegel, Ross, and King III (2013) stated that a one standard deviation increase in firearm prevalence was associated with a 12.9% increase in the homicide rate.

The part in bold is the exact same correlation you were trying to say didn’t exist on a national level. They look at it regionally and say the data supports a correlation.

So it seems like that, at least, deserves a response that doesn’t mischaracterize it or ignore it, right?

 

[hog88]

I don’t think you understood it.


The part in bold is the exact same correlation you were trying to say didn’t exist on a national level. They look at it regionally and say the data supports a correlation.

So it seems like that, at least, deserves a response that doesn’t mischaracterize it or ignore it, right?

Again, suicide is not a violent crime. It seems like it is you that don't understand.

 

[RockyTop85]

Again, suicide is not a violent crime. It seems like it is you that don't understand.

... it doesn’t say that it is?

Maybe five sentences was too much for you. Let’s try just the conclusion:

In fact, Siegel, Ross, and King III (2013) stated that a one standard deviation increase in firearm prevalence was associated with a 12.9% increase in the homicide rate.

That’s the inverse of your own argument with different supporting evidence. You’re saying that’s not relevant?

 

[hog88]

... it doesn’t say that it is?

Maybe five sentences was too much for you. Let’s try just the conclusion:

In fact, Siegel, Ross, and King III (2013) stated that a one standard deviation increase in firearm prevalence was associated with a 12.9% increase in the homicide rate.

That’s the inverse of your own argument with different supporting evidence. You’re saying that’s not relevant?

Siegel, Ross, and King III (2013) examined firearm prevalence and firearm homicides from 1981 to 2010. The authors collected information for the fifty states from 1981 to 2010 and used suicide by firearm as a proxy for firearm prevalence. Using a negative binomial regression model the researchers found that firearm prevalence was a significant predictor of firearm homicide. In fact, Siegel, Ross, and King III (2013) stated that a one standard deviation increase in firearm prevalence was associated with a 12.9% increase in the homicide rate.

.

 

[RockyTop85]

.

Tell me what you think that sentence means.

 

[hog88]

Tell me what you think that sentence means.

You go first.

 

[RockyTop85]

You go first.

They estimated the number of guns in a particular place by looking at the number of deaths by suicide involving a firearm.

Your turn.

 

[hndog609]

I don’t think you understood it.


The part in bold is the exact same correlation you were trying to say didn’t exist on a national level. They look at it regionally and say the data supports a correlation.

So it seems like that, at least, deserves a response that doesn’t mischaracterize it or ignore it, right?

So over this time period not only has there been a very large increase in firearms purchased but a massive increase in civilian carry up to and including outright degrees of permitless carry.

U.S. Murder/Homicide Rate 1990-2021

There seems to be a lot of people, usually ideologically driven, that will parse the ever living hell out of whatever stats they can make fit. (note I didn't pick one side or the other in that observation) For instance, some would contend that more guns and people carrying (which is absolutely an inarguable fact) is the actual cause of this mostly steady drop in homicide rate. I think that would be a little fast and loose with other variables. What I can absolutely state is that general downturn in homicide rate is absolutely taking place during a time of increased firearms and the bearing thereof.

 

[hog88]

They estimated the number of guns in a particular place by looking at the number of deaths by suicide involving a firearm.

Your turn.

They included suicides in their homicide numbers.

 

[Tastylicks]

They included suicides in their homicide numbers.

and why shouldn't they? Suicides are a concern

 

[hog88]

So over this time period not only has there been a very large increase in firearms purchased but a massive increase in civilian carry up to and including outright degrees of permitless carry.

U.S. Murder/Homicide Rate 1990-2021

There seems to be a lot of people, usually ideologically driven, that will parse the ever living hell out of whatever stats they can make fit. (note I didn't pick one side or the other in that observation) For instance, some would contend that more guns and people carrying (which is absolutely an inarguable fact) is the actual cause of this mostly steady drop in homicide rate. I think that would be a little fast and loose with other variables. What I can absolutely state is that general downturn in homicide rate is absolutely taking place during a time of increased firearms and the bearing thereof.

I don't think there is a correlation up or down in the homicide or violent crime rate with the number of guns owned or in circulation.

 

[hog88]

and why shouldn't they? Suicides are a concern

We are talking about violent crimes. If a person is going to off themselves they will find a way.

 

[Tastylicks]

We are talking about violent crimes. If a person is going to off themselves they will find a way.

just wish they would do that before they off others

 

[RockyTop85]

They included suicides in their homicide numbers.

Ok. Pretend it means what I said it means (because it does) and then respond to it. That should be easy.

 

[hog88]

Ok. Pretend it means what I said it means (because it does) and then respond to it. That should be easy.

Then it's a terribly inaccurate way to estimate the number of households that own guns.

 

[midnight orange]

Evidently some on this board believe your basic human rights are subject to statistical approval. I think this sentiment has been a strategy of the grabbers because they know a large portion of Americans will buy in to the appeal to emotion. They also know they can make statistics say whatever they want a gullible public to believe.

 

[Tastylicks]

Then it's a terribly inaccurate way to estimate the number of households that own guns.

God that would be an impossible task. like every household..... Like TV sets, you just assume they do have one by now

 

[RockyTop85]

Then it's a terribly inaccurate way to estimate the number of households that own guns.

Except that the study discussed in the paragraph before the one we’ve been discussing showed a strong correlation between firearm prevalence and unintentional death/suicide by firearm.

 

[hog88]

Except that the study discussed in the paragraph before the one we’ve been discussing showed a strong correlation between firearm prevalence and unintentional death/suicide by firearm.

So? People serious about wanting to kill themselves use the most effective tool.

A better way to estimate the number would be to take the number of BGCs ran over the last 20 years and multiply that by 10 (maybe 20).

 

[hndog609]

I don't think there is a correlation up or down in the homicide or violent crime rate with the number of guns owned or in circulation.

Well technically per what I posted there is an actual correlation with a general drop in homicide rate vs increase in firearms being purchased and carried. Now if one were to posit there is little apparent causation between the two I'd probably agree. Some of the most gun friendly states have lower homicide rates and some of the most draconian anti-gun states have the highest. The whole "But...guns!" thing is pretty dubious. There's too many variables that people don't want to even acknowledge much less investigate. (which is why I don't give a fat fig when people try to bring other countries into the comparison mix)

 

[RockyTop85]

So over this time period not only has there been a very large increase in firearms purchased but a massive increase in civilian carry up to and including outright degrees of permitless carry.

U.S. Murder/Homicide Rate 1990-2021

There seems to be a lot of people, usually ideologically driven, that will parse the ever living hell out of whatever stats they can make fit. (note I didn't pick one side or the other in that observation) For instance, some would contend that more guns and people carrying (which is absolutely an inarguable fact) is the actual cause of this mostly steady drop in homicide rate. I think that would be a little fast and loose with other variables. What I can absolutely state is that general downturn in homicide rate is absolutely taking place during a time of increased firearms and the bearing thereof.

Thanks. That’s a fair statement.

I think there are issues with such big aggregates of data. The larger the timeframe and number of municipalities, the more room there is for other factors to have an influence.

The assault weapons ban was passed in 1994 and Congress doesn’t just roll out of bed and do most things. So one could argue that increased awareness and concern about gun violence, if not legislation, could be another source of causation.

It seems to me that the decline in firearm homicides is a sign that the concern about mass shootings is being inflamed by the availability and tone of media coverage. School shootings, church shootings, and this new trend of grocery store shootings are tragedies that we should absolutely try to prevent, but point of the constitution is to protect the rights of the minority against an inflamed majority.

That said, even Scalia in Heller acknowledged that the second amendment isn’t absolute. So those are the two boundaries and the problem is finding an overlap, if any, on the Vinn diagram of what passes constitutional muster and what will lessen these shootings.

I don’t know what that is, or if there is such a thing, I’m not sure anybody does. I think making it a regional issue and keeping the federal government out of it is the best approach. Having 50 States taking different cracks at the same issue seems preferable to trying whatever the hell the federal government would do that would then spend 4 years in court and then some years seeing if it works.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

we should all be allowed to have nuclear bombs? I dont think so...

You know people in this country own artillery pieces right? Tanks? Tens of thousands of fully automatic small arms? Do you ever hear about those people committing crimes?

 

[RockyTop85]

So? People serious about wanting to kill themselves use the most effective tool.

A better way to estimate the number would be to take the number of BGCs ran over the last 20 years and multiply that by 10 (maybe 20).

It’s definitely a universal truth that complete made up numbers are superior to reliance on a known correlation.

 

[OHvol40]

I don’t think you understood it.


The part in bold is the exact same correlation you were trying to say didn’t exist on a national level. They look at it regionally and say the data supports a correlation.

So it seems like that, at least, deserves a response that doesn’t mischaracterize it or ignore it, right?

I’m all for discussing facts, but here it’s mostly hyperbole. I’m genuinely open to listening to most any point of view on firearms because I can see the relevance of most positions. The problem is most on the right have dug into an absolutists stance, and there is a faction of the left who have done the same. It’s complete nonsense and creates an environment where we can’t even discuss or debate serious issues sincerely.

 

[C-south]

I’m all for discussing facts, but here it’s mostly hyperbole. I’m genuinely open to listening to most any point of view on firearms because I can see the relevance of most positions. The problem is most on the right have dug into an absolutists stance, and there is a faction of the left who have done the same. It’s complete nonsense and creates an environment where we can’t even discuss or debate serious issues sincerely.

The fact is you can’t get in someone’s head. You can’t know what someone’s breaking point is until it happens. You always screech something about “scientific” study this and that so you can put a finite number on something when there’s no way to do it. The fact is the places with the strictest gun laws have the most gun violence yet they blame it on other places that have virtually none.