Fuzzy math.35+/85 in the same class?

#76
#76
I don't post much over here anymore, but this one got me to thinking...

Back in 2007 we signed 32 kids. As I look back on it, maybe Fulmer realized he needed to shake it up, maybe that's just the way it worked out.

Those kids were not suspecting a coaching change.

Anthony Anderson
Eric Berry
Kevin Cooper
Art Evans
CJ Fleming
Gerald Jones
Ben Martin
Nevin McKenzie
Denarius Moore
Cody Pope
Dennis Rogan
Chris Walker

Those above, and a few others, all lasted through the various coaching changes and we lost, one way or another, highly rated guys like Lennon Creer, Chris Donald, Kenny O'Neil, Ahmad Paige, Brent Vinson, along the way.

2008 (we signed 18) came and went, Kiffin comes in and signs 24...

I guess what I'm trying to say is, over the course of 2, 3, years, guys come and go based on many factors. We need a roster overhaul in the worst way. Redshirts, practice players, leadership, heck, just some depth for next year in a "I realize it's a short sided view point" kind of way.

I don't like it, don't like to say it, but it's the game now.
 
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#77
#77
BOP said:
People are going to be upset that I post this but the math is terrible here. How can you have over 40% of your scholarships in the same class? I'm sorry, but that's not smart and that's not how you sustain. This class is good, it ain't THAT good, if the idea is to weed out the weaker players than that is very unethical, particularly when you can see who the weaker players are right now and you are still accepting commitments from them.
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What is unethical about it? Life is about winners and losers. Kids may as well get used to it now to prepare them for later. Have you ever heard of Darwin? It's reality. It's natural.

In 2 years, Butch will be judged on wins and not carrying a bunch of weaker players on the roster. For me, I want wins and I would guess you do too.

I agree with you about one thing. It is NOT good that 40%the team is from one class. But that is the hand he was dealt. You may really believe that some of the players who are forced to leave are better than the new ones. That's fine. You have a right to your opinion. But, we hired Butch to make those decisions to win games and it is his call and not ours.
 
#78
#78
I'm not sure I would be passing on people given our talent and depth. What OP is doing isn't math, it's trolling.
 
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#79
#79
BOP said:
People are going to be upset that I post this but the math is terrible here. How can you have over 40% of your scholarships in the same class? I'm sorry, but that's not smart and that's not how you sustain. This class is good, it ain't THAT good, if the idea is to weed out the weaker players than that is very unethical, particularly when you can see who the weaker players are right now and you are still accepting commitments from them.
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I trust Butch knows more about it than you or me, so I'm not worrying about it...
 
#80
#80
In Phil, I mean, in Lane, um, sorry, in Dooley, wait. In butch we trust. It is butch, right?
 
#81
#81
Morpheus said:
Not sure I follow. He obviously doesn't see them as "fillers" or he wouldn't be recruiting them.

I assume he's planning to redshirt quite a few, and he feels a year of development will have them ready to start working their way up the depth chart. They won't all be immediate impacts obviously.
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My point is simple. If they aren't all immediate impact, why do you need to sign 35. If they are all immediate impact caliber, they still wont all be immediate impact because you aren't going to have 35 freshman make an immediate impact. And if you can sign 35 players that can make an immediate impact, why would you not be able to sign 20+ immediate impact players next year. The iron is hot, it aint that hot. If you are telling me that the 35th best guy he can sign in this class is better than the 20th best guy he can sign next year, I have a serious problem with that.

And yes there will be attrition with this class, there will be attrition with a 20 man class. Its going to be a general percentage. Say 20%, that means if 7 guys in a 35 man class don't make it, 4 in a 20 man class don't make it. The numbers wont magically even out, if they do, there was never a reason to sign 35 anyway and this class would have been a failure.
 
#82
#82
ETNVol said:
It will likely be 30 with a couple greyshirts. Hubbs and others at vq have downplayed the notion of blueshirting as too risky.

All this 35 and 36 hype is just message board fantasy.
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Then why would Jashon Robertson commit now? He shouldn't be part of the top 30 I wouldn't think.
 
#83
#83
volroadwarrior said:
What is unethical about it? Life is about winners and losers. Kids may as well get used to it now to prepare them for later. Have you ever heard of Darwin? It's reality. It's natural.

In 2 years, Butch will be judged on wins and not carrying a bunch of weaker players on the roster. For me, I want wins and I would guess you do too.

I agree with you about one thing. It is NOT good that 40%the team is from one class. But that is the hand he was dealt. You may really believe that some of the players who are forced to leave are better than the new ones. That's fine. You have a right to your opinion. But, we hired Butch to make those decisions to win games and it is his call and not ours.
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First of all, I don't want a program that is good in 2 years, I want a program that is good every year. I don't want a program that has a good year or 2 and then falls off the map because it graduates 19 seniors and 30 in the 2 deep. You say this is the hand he was dealt, I don't see it.
 
#84
#84
vol66 said:
I don't post much over here anymore, but this one got me to thinking...

Back in 2007 we signed 32 kids. As I look back on it, maybe Fulmer realized he needed to shake it up, maybe that's just the way it worked out.

Those kids were not suspecting a coaching change.

Anthony Anderson
Eric Berry
Kevin Cooper
Art Evans
CJ Fleming
Gerald Jones
Ben Martin
Nevin McKenzie
Denarius Moore
Cody Pope
Dennis Rogan
Chris Walker

Those above, and a few others, all lasted through the various coaching changes and we lost, one way or another, highly rated guys like Lennon Creer, Chris Donald, Kenny O'Neil, Ahmad Paige, Brent Vinson, along the way.

2008 (we signed 18) came and went, Kiffin comes in and signs 24...

I guess what I'm trying to say is, over the course of 2, 3, years, guys come and go based on many factors. We need a roster overhaul in the worst way. Redshirts, practice players, leadership, heck, just some depth for next year in a "I realize it's a short sided view point" kind of way.

I don't like it, don't like to say it, but it's the game now.
Click to expand...

Well that was one of the most overrated classes in college football and certainly not the type of attrition you would want to replicate.
 
#85
#85
It's not that difficult. If you take 35, you have 4 that are JUCOS. So, over 10% starts in the junior class. You probably have close to a third of them that could redshirt because of development or injury, so they are in the 2015 freshman class. Then, you have a couple that may greyshirt, so they are either in the 2015 or even 2016 freshman class. That leaves roughly 18-20 guys in the freshman class of 2014. That doesn't even include natural attrition. You can manipulate the numbers.
 
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#86
#86
I am on the fence with large classes.
Here are the reasons.
OP is correct in so far as it throws the balance off in year to year talent.
I think the thing he isn't taking into account is that all teams, even NC teams have talent drops. It has always went in cycles, and always will.
However, Recruiting is like game day.
Momentum is the game changer.
We are recruiting this large of a class because we have momentum.
CBJ is gambling that our Offense will keep that momentum.
If it pays off, then next year will be High Quality, Low Quantity.
The large group this year, as a previous poster points out is still spread out.
They are not all going to leave at the same time.
The momentum takes me off the fence.
A larger class is harder to coach, and that puts me back on the fence.
In the end, its a gamble. It could pay off to the tune of an SECCG, or NC title.
Or it could back fire.
The Coaches ability to coach, is still not a guarantee.
I do feel pretty solid about it though.
GBO, and let's keep the Momentum going right into 2016.
Win the Bristol Bowl, and ride that right into a Championship game.
 
#87
#87
BOP said:
People are going to be upset that I post this but the math is terrible here. How can you have over 40% of your scholarships in the same class? I'm sorry, but that's not smart and that's not how you sustain. This class is good, it ain't THAT good, if the idea is to weed out the weaker players than that is very unethical, particularly when you can see who the weaker players are right now and you are still accepting commitments from them.
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Between redshirts and jucos we want have that many in one class.
 
#88
#88
Given the fact that CBJ is the one getting paid the big bucks to coach this team and it's his job on the line if he can't win enough games in his 2nd and 3rd season I think he can pretty much do anything he wants (legally) to make sure he and his teams are successful.
 
#89
#89
BOP said:
Well that was one of the most overrated classes in college football and certainly not the type of attrition you would want to replicate.
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Well, if it makes you feel any better...Saban went 7-6 in 2007, he signed 32 players in 2008. The very next year he signed 28. They were undefeated in 2009.
 
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#91
#91
It's funny that everyone is against the OP's way of thinking.

Way to help unify the fanbase!:thumbsup:
 
#92
#92
BOP:

#1 depth. You play as good as you practice. When you limit your depth you limit your performance in games. If your first teamers go against lousy second or scout teamers you will not be ready. Plus the second teamers roll up with injuries, dismissals, and graduation.

#2 momentum. Future recruiting is impacted by current recruiting. The perception of everybody wants to go to UT builds momentum with the players as they participate in camps, their seasons, all star games, etc. Which means the staff can cherry pick more in subsequent years.

#3 - it works. One major loaded class can take a bad program and make it good for several years while the staff focuses on higher end recruits in future years. There are probably 15 RS's in this class that project to be good, starter level players by the time they are juniors. This covers for the others that hit the field sooner and graduate or go pro early.

How they get the class done is really none of our business as long as it is according to NCAA requirements. It is no skin off your nose if they use EE or gray shirt or blue shirt or preferred walk on.

Now if that is not logical enough for you go troll yourself.
 
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#94
#94
BOP said:
Actually I didn't say that he certainly was. I simply made the common sense case that the possible risks with signing 35+ guys far outweigh the rewards. Actually I have yet to hear any rewards. All I hear is that it will work itself out magically. It doesn't need to work itself out, because it doesn't need to happen.
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BOP said:
Absolutely absurd. Hes adding freshman class fillers, to upperclassman class fillers. But lets pretend you are right and all 35+ are Sec caliber players, is he he not going to be able to sign Sec caliber players next year? Wouldn't it be more beneficial to spread the Sec players our a little?
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I highly doubt we have 35 players in the 2014 class. But if we did, so what?!? The reward is that it gives us the best possible roster we can have right NOW. If all we are taking are "fillers", please list me the 5-8 names of these fillers off of our commit list.
 
#95
#95
Many of these players will redshirt. Some will go elsewhere. Some won't pan out for whatever reason. You worry too much. I am going to call you Whiskers from now on.
 
#96
#96
I'm ALMOST convinced that adding 35 talented players will unequivocally hurt our team :)...just need one of those frogs that secrete hallucinogenic substance to seal the deal.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
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#98
#98
Dust10 said:
Have to put my iPhone in PC mode just so I can ignore this thread.

Later, rednecks.
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Nah, this thread is pure comedy gold. CBJ is putting together the best class we've had in over a decade and this guy is whining about it. Must be a Vandy troll.
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#100
#100
BOP said:
Well that was one of the most overrated classes in college football and certainly not the type of attrition you would want to replicate.
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You talk about unethical way of handling things and oversigning. Would this be your way of thinking if we did not have the 25 number class restrictions?

The point you are making, I understand. And I think the main reason you are making the point is because you are unaware of any successfull programs oversigning/weeding out players to become successful. Let me give you a few examples of this practice being used successfully and then I will give you some instances of where it should have been used and wasn't and the teams struggled.

Nick Saban did it his first 2 classes at Bama and his first 2 classes at LSU. 4 rings later kids still love Saban.

Spurrier at South Carolina built his current program on oversigning.

Sumlin at Texas A&M has been doing the same.

When Mark Richt first came to UGA he did it.

Pete Carroll at USCw typically had large classes that he weeded out.

Would you be upset for Tennessee to have the success these programs have had?

Here are few that shold have done more oversigning...

Derek Dooley could have helped his depth by a little creativity recruiting.

Houston Nutt doomed himself by not recruiting enough players consistently and relying on transfers to fill gaps.

Randy Shannon at Miami had difficulty taking over for Coker because he did not weed out he very players that Coker got fired using.
 
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