Fulmer - Down Year or Problem

#1
volinbham

volinbham

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#1
There have been many calls on this board to get rid of CPF.

Here are some factoids from the record book.

1) SEC Championship Performance

Appearances = 4, Wins = 2.

Context: Since CPF took over (first full year 1993), a total of 8 teams (75%) in the SEC have appeared in the SECCG. Six different teams (50%) have won the game. One team has more appearances (UF - 6) and victories (UF - 4). LSU is the only other team with more than one win. Bama has appeared 4 times with one win. LSU has the best winining % (100% 2 for 2).

2) National Championships

UT = 1

Context: 2 other SEC teams have one each during the time period (LSU, UF). Auburn was as close as you can get and UA won in 92.

3) Final Season Rankings

UT = 6 top 10 finishes (50%) of seasons.

Context: Not sure if any other SEC team can match this - UF likely the only other team.

4) Win/loss Performance

Winning % = just under 80%
Least wins in a season = 8
Most losses in a season = 5

Conclusion - Fulmer's record is quite impressive. As can be seen in #1 and #2 - the SEC has been very competitive top to bottom. With regard to SECCG performance, UT is second only UF. Consider the parity in the SEC. During his tenure, 75% of the teams in the conference made the SECCG, 50% of the teams won the SECCG, 25% won outright NC's, 33% had NC seasons (counting Auburn in 2004) (Alabama not included since their NC was in 92). Given the parity in the league, UT managed to end up in the top 10 50% of the time and CPF won nearly 80% of his games.

So, the question is: What is the likelihood that we can find someone that will put up better numbers?
:question:
 
#2
#2
Originally posted by volinbham@Nov 2, 2005 1:18 AM
There have been many calls on this board to get rid of CPF.

Here are some factoids from the record book.

1)  SEC Championship Performance

Appearances = 4, Wins = 2.

Context:  Since CPF took over (first full year 1993), a total of 8 teams (75%) in the SEC have appeared in the SECCG.  Six different teams (50%) have won the game.  One team has more appearances (UF - 6) and victories (UF - 4).  LSU is the only other team with more than one win.  Bama has appeared 4 times with one win.  LSU has the best winining % (100% 2 for 2).

2)  National Championships

UT = 1

Context:  2 other SEC teams have one each during the time period (LSU, UF).  Auburn was as close as you can get and UA won in 92. 

3)  Final Season Rankings

UT = 6 top 10 finishes (50%) of seasons.

Context:  Not sure if any other SEC team can match this - UF likely the only other team.

4)  Win/loss Performance

Winning % =  just under 80%
Least wins in a season = 8
Most losses in a season = 5

Conclusion - Fulmer's record is quite impressive.  As can be seen in #1 and #2 - the SEC has been very competitive top to bottom.  With regard to SECCG performance, UT is second only UF.  Consider the parity in the SEC.  During his tenure, 75% of the teams in the conference made the SECCG, 50% of the teams won the SECCG, 25% won outright NC's, 33% had NC seasons (counting Auburn in 2004) (Alabama not included since their NC was in 92).  Given the parity in the league, UT managed to end up in the top 10 50% of the time and CPF won nearly 80% of his games.

So, the question is:  What is the likelihood that we can find someone that will put up better numbers? 
:question:
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The better question is this. Is Fulmer likely to continue putting up those past numbers that you mention with this current offensive staff and scheme.

I would say with this season as an inidicator, the answer is no. Unless CPF makes changes, instills a little discipline, and makes himself accountable for poor play, past success is all in the past.

A monkey could coach this team to a 3-4 record at this point in the season.

The likelihood is high that this is a wake up call, but CPF will eventually be replaced (retirement or otherwise), and I think there are several coaches who could duplicate this success, and even take it to another level.
 
#3
#3
Seat starts to get hot for Fulmer

Titans coach Jeff Fisher's 2-6 record represents the worst start of his career.

Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer's 3-4 record matches the worst start of his career.

You hear little or no talk about Fisher being in any danger of losing his job.

Everyone, though, seems to want Fulmer's head on a platter.

Fisher gets a pass because the salary cap forced the Titans to blow up the roster in the offseason. It's obvious they don't have enough NFL-ready players.

Fulmer's Vols, on the other hand, are loaded with experienced, former blue-chip recruits. Rivals.com has placed the Vols in the nation's top 11 recruiting classes in four of the past five years.

Fulmer had two quarterbacks who had proven in 2004 that they were capable of handling the position. Now they have digressed to mental basket cases.

Fulmer's team was ranked No. 3 in at least one preseason poll. Fulmer didn't disagree. He said before the season that the wide receivers were the best to roam the Hill in years.

In the wake of the loss to South Carolina, Fulmer announced Monday that offensive coordinator Randy Sanders will remain on the staff, but Fulmer will assume play-calling duties.

Don't be surprised if Sanders, wide receivers coach Pat Washington and offensive line coach Jimmy Ray Stephens aren't on the staff when the Vols kick off next season. There could be others.

Let's put the blame where it belongs.

Fulmer hired these assistants he now finds incapable. If Fulmer is not guilty of poor judgment in the hires, he obviously has allowed them to reach a point of faint accountability. They know Fulmer is loyal to a fault, thus creating a built-in comfort zone.

When Fulmer comes under fire, those in his corner offer his winning percentage over 13-plus seasons as proof he is one of college football's elite coaches.

The cold, hard facts paint a picture no card-carrying Big Orange fan will swallow:


Fulmer has won only two SEC championship in 13 seasons. He has not won one in the past seven seasons.

The Vols won a national championship under Fulmer in 1998. They beat Florida State, 23-16. It was a FSU team that had to play a backup quarterback in Marcus Outzen, who played nothing short of awful.

Six seasons have passed since the Vols played in a BCS bowl.

Although they frequently earn a top 10 ranking in recruiting, it will be four years since they finished in the top 10 of the final AP poll.
This is not a profile of a college football coach earning more than $2 million a year.

Fulmer's record against his SEC peers is equally inept.


With the loss to unranked South Carolina, Fulmer is 3-8 against Steve Spurrier. He is 1-4 against Georgia's Mark Richt and 1-3 against Auburn's Tommy Tuberville.
This is not a profile of a college football coach earning more than $2 million a year.

Demoting Sanders doesn't change those numbers. It's placing a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound.

Fulmer called his team's performance against South Carolina, "unacceptable.'' No one who saw it disagreed. The fact it came against Spurrier had to rub Fulmer raw.

Just when Fulmer thought he had exorcised all the Spurrier demons, the Ball Coach came into Fulmer's backyard with a less talented team and found a way to win. Fulmer's program has already slipped behind Georgia and Florida. South Carolina could be next.

For the first time since he took over for Johnny Majors - in what was deemed a palace coup by some - Fulmer is feeling the heat.

It's not likely to get any better against Notre Dame, no matter who's calling the plays.

Joe Biddle is a columnist for The Tennessean. Reach him a jbiddle@tennessean.com
 
#4
#4
The Vols won a national championship under Fulmer in 1998. They beat Florida State, 23-16. It was a FSU team that had to play a backup quarterback in Marcus Outzen, who played nothing short of awful.
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Revisionist history. The strong part of the Florida State team in 1998 was their defense. However, the Vols rang up 23 points and almost 400 yards of offense.... easily on the vaunted Fla State defense.

Forget Outzen, WR Peter Warrick wasn't open for ANY quarterback that would have played for Florida State.

Florida State was FAVORED entering the game. So don't make it out like the Vols just beat a weak opponent. Florida State was the most dominant team in the nation along with Nebraska during the mid to late '90s and the Vols win over them should not be diminished just because you want to justify why you think that Phil Fulmer should be fired. 13-0 is exactly what it is.

Is Florida giving back their NC because they lost 1 game? They sure didn't finish 13-0. LSU?... USC 3 seasons ago?

13-0 is hard to do and is pretty darn impressive considering that the Vols defeated 6 ranked opponents that season.... 4 of them in the top 10.
 
#6
#6
Originally posted by CHATTAVOL@Nov 2, 2005 9:38 AM
if he had the same record somewhere else would we want him?????
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Dang... that's a good question. Are there any coaches with better records?
 
#7
#7
Originally posted by allvol@Nov 2, 2005 9:32 AM
Revisionist history.  The strong part of the Florida State team in 1998 was their defense.  However, the Vols rang up 23 points and almost 400 yards of offense.... easily on the vaunted Fla State defense.
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...and I also guess it doesn't matter that Jamal Lewis was hurt early in the season and we were running a freshman at tailback.
 
#8
#8
Only Spurrier has shown a better performance in this league. You can complain about the lack of championships but no team save UF has more than UT since Fulmer has been here. UF's came in 4 consecutive years (and one in 2000). Even the Spur lost 2 SECCG's.

If the SECCG wasn't in place, UT would have 4 or 5 SEC championships over the time period.

The big point of the thread is a non-answerable question - is his overall performance the indicator of his ability or is this year the indicator?

If you want him gone - you've gotta ask how many coaches out there could come in and put up a BETTER record?

Of current SEC coaches, who's better?

Richt? He's got one SEC championship and no NC's.
Meyer? He was the hot coach but who's afraid of him now?
Tubs? His record doesn't stand up.
Miles?
Shula?

Even Saban looked good but his record is way too short to say what would have been over a period of 10 years or more.

I'm not saying that changes aren't necessary - just posing the REALITY question - how likely is it that a Fulmer replacement would do better?
 
#9
#9
Originally posted by volinbham@Nov 2, 2005 11:53 AM
Only Spurrier has shown a better performance in this league.
If you want him gone - you've gotta ask how many coaches out there could come in and put up a BETTER record?

Of current SEC coaches, who's better?

Richt?  He's got one SEC championship and no NC's.
Meyer?  He was the hot coach but who's afraid of him now?
Tubs?  His record doesn't stand up.
Miles? 
Shula?
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Fulmer is 3-8 against Steve Spurrier. He is 1-4 against Georgia's Mark Richt and 1-3 against Auburn's Tommy Tuberville.
 
#10
#10
Originally posted by oklavol@Nov 2, 2005 10:57 AM
Fulmer is 3-8 against Steve Spurrier. He is 1-4 against Georgia's Mark Richt and 1-3 against Auburn's Tommy Tuberville.
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Counting last season's 2 wins over Fulmer..... Tuberville is now 3-3 versus Fulmer.
 
#11
#11
Originally posted by Lexvol@Nov 2, 2005 8:00 AM
I think there are several coaches who could duplicate this success, and even take it to another level.
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Who? In recent SEC history (since Fulmer) only Steve Spurrier was capable of this.

Who on the national scene?

Bob Stoops - wonderboy but where are they now?
Pete Carroll - outstanding but 4 years of history.
Tresell - is he winning the big 10 every year?
Coker -
Bowden

?
?

During Fulmer's time, six different teams have won the SECCG (parity - only UF has won more than UT). Two teams have won more than one national championship (USC/Nebraska). That's less than 2% of teams in a twelve year period that have won more than one NC.

Over 98% of teams have not had more success (NC-wise) than UT under Fulmer.

Now, who is it we would bring in that would take us to the next (pretty much non-existant) level?
 
#12
#12
Originally posted by oklavol@Nov 2, 2005 10:57 AM
He is 1-4 against Georgia's Mark Richt and 1-3 against Auburn's Tommy Tuberville.
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How many NC's and SEC Champs do these guys have?

No one denies that Spurrier was a step ahead but the jury is still out on Tubs and Richt.

BTW - Spurrier had a losing record against Terry Bowden - do you think UF fans wanted to get rid of him for that :biggrin2:
 
#13
#13
Originally posted by volinbham@Nov 2, 2005 1:18 AM
There have been many calls on this board to get rid of CPF.

Here are some factoids from the record book.

1)  SEC Championship Performance

Appearances = 4, Wins = 2.

Context:  Since CPF took over (first full year 1993), a total of 8 teams (75%) in the SEC have appeared in the SECCG.  Six different teams (50%) have won the game.  One team has more appearances (UF - 6) and victories (UF - 4).  LSU is the only other team with more than one win.  Bama has appeared 4 times with one win.  LSU has the best winining % (100% 2 for 2).

2)  National Championships

UT = 1

Context:  2 other SEC teams have one each during the time period (LSU, UF).  Auburn was as close as you can get and UA won in 92. 

3)  Final Season Rankings

UT = 6 top 10 finishes (50%) of seasons.

Context:  Not sure if any other SEC team can match this - UF likely the only other team.

4)  Win/loss Performance

Winning % =  just under 80%
Least wins in a season = 8
Most losses in a season = 5

Conclusion - Fulmer's record is quite impressive.  As can be seen in #1 and #2 - the SEC has been very competitive top to bottom.  With regard to SECCG performance, UT is second only UF.  Consider the parity in the SEC.  During his tenure, 75% of the teams in the conference made the SECCG, 50% of the teams won the SECCG, 25% won outright NC's, 33% had NC seasons (counting Auburn in 2004) (Alabama not included since their NC was in 92).  Given the parity in the league, UT managed to end up in the top 10 50% of the time and CPF won nearly 80% of his games.

So, the question is:  What is the likelihood that we can find someone that will put up better numbers? 
:question:
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Great post, shows that Fulmer haters have no idea what there talking about, one bad season in 12 is not bad at all.
 
#14
#14
Spurrier never went 13-0. He had his chance, but his 12-0 Florida squad in 1995 got spanked by Nebraska 62-24.

He did win the NC in 1996, but only after backing into the NC game after losing to Florida State in their last regular season game and then winning the rematch. No. 3 Florida beat #1 Florida State in the rematch 52-20.... The Gators benefit from No. 4 Ohio State's upset of No. 2 and previously unbeaten Arizona State in the Rose Bowl.

Spurrier's big success was winning 4 straight SEC Championship games culminating in the 1996 NC. He won another SECCG in 2000. However, that was the only championship he won in his final 5 seasons at Florida (after winning the NC).
 
#15
#15
Originally posted by volinbham@Nov 2, 2005 12:08 PM
How many NC's and SEC Champs do these guys have?

No one denies that Spurrier was a step ahead but the jury is still out on Tubs and Richt.

BTW - Spurrier had a losing record against Terry Bowden - do you think UF fans wanted to get rid of him for that  :biggrin2:
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You are going to have a difficult time convincing me or many other people that Fulmer is a better coach then say Spurrier, Richt, Tubberville, Saban, etc. if Fulmer has a losing record against them. (Since Tubberville has been at Auburn Fulmers record against him is 1-3.) The bottom line is, if Fulmer was a better coach then he wouldnt be losing when he plays them.

You say who could you replace Fulmer with? I think Fulmer could be replaced with all those guys I just named, and thats just from the SEC. There are a many other coaches and o.c.'s in the NFL who are as capable.

I think our program has realistically slipped to 5th the SEC over the last 5 years. LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida all seem to be getting better while we have gotten worse.
 
#16
#16
Originally posted by oklavol@Nov 2, 2005 11:45 AM
You are never going to convince me or many other people that Fulmer is a better coach then Spurrier, Richt, Tubberville, Saban, etc.  when Fulmer has a losing record against them. He is not even close to having a winning record against any of these guys. (Since Tubberville has been at Auburn Fulmers record against him is 1-3.)  The bottom line is, if Fulmer was a better then they are, then he wouldn't lose when he plays them.

You say who would you replace Fulmer with? I would replace Fulmer with all those guys I just mentioned, and thats only from the SEC.  There are a myriad of coaches and o.c.'s in the NFL who are just as capable or better.

We are probably the 5th best program in the SEC now.  LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida all have owned Fulmer for the past 5 years. Look at Fulmers record against them.
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Count me in the you'll never convince me camp as well - just on the other side.

I've already acknowledged that Spurrier is a step-up.

Saban - not enough data - Bowden had a winning record against Spurrier - would you use the same argument and say he was better than Spurrier? No way.

Tuberville? - his Auburn wins against us were with the same team - let's see how he does year in and out without Cadillac, Ronnie Williams, Jason Campbell, etc.

Richt - looks to be the best of the current bunch but his 6 best consecutive years still don't match Fulmer's best 6 consecutive years. If Richt stays for 12 we'll see how he looks then.

 
#17
#17
It may be worthy of mention that, when you are the king of the hill, everyone guns for you.

What I mean is, that UT was for the most part the big dog in the SEC east. Doesn't it stand to reason that everyone else might have geared their season towards knocking Fulmer and the Vols out?

The better indicator is still overall winning %, SECC and NCs. Fulmer holds his own quite well there.
 
#18
#18
Originally posted by oklavol@Nov 2, 2005 11:45 AM
You are going to have a difficult time convincing me or many other people that Fulmer is a better coach then say Spurrier, Richt, Tubberville, Saban, etc.  if Fulmer has a losing record against them. (Since Tubberville has been at Auburn Fulmers record against him is 1-3.)  The bottom line is, if Fulmer was a better coach then he wouldnt be losing when he plays them.

You say who could you replace Fulmer with? I think Fulmer could be replaced with all those guys I just named, and thats just from the SEC.  There are a many other coaches and o.c.'s in the NFL who are as capable.

I think our program has realistically slipped to 5th the SEC over the last 5 years.  LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida all seem to be getting better while we have gotten worse.
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I totally agree. Looking at the winning percentages against those teams, Fulmer isn't better than either coach. Folks supporting Fulmer need to factor in quality of wins. LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida are teams that can give you quality wins if you defeat them. Wins against UAB, Wyoming, Memphis, Vanderbilt don't mean anything. UT is suppose to beat those team. Defeat the other powerhouses, on a consistent basis, in the SEC if you want to be legit.
 
#19
#19
Uh - every team plays the same type schedule as UT. :crazy:

If other teams are getting the quality wins, why don't they have the same record of achievement over the same time period? What other teams have the same winning % over that time?

Richt vs Fulmer was mentioned. Well, during the Richt era UT has reached the SECCG the same number of times. If Richt was beating us, MORE teams were beating him otherwise we wouldn't make it to the SECCG. Were his losses against quality or non-quality teams?

With 117 teams, there is a natural regression to the mean. Find me the programs since Fulmer has been on board with a better 12 year record of accomplishment. There aren't many and there's only 1 in the SEC (UF). That one in the SEC has lost 17 games over the last 3 seasons (and this season).
 
#20
#20
Originally posted by volinbham@Nov 2, 2005 1:30 PM
Uh - every team plays the same type schedule as UT.    :crazy:

If other teams are getting the quality wins, why don't they have the same record of achievement over the same time period?  What other teams have the same winning % over that time?
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The reason Fulmers winning % is so high is because he inherited a program from Majors that was loaded with talent and a top 20 team. Richt, Tubberivlle, Saban, Spurrier, all had to build a top 20 program, they didnt inherit one like Fulmer.

Fulmer has now lost more games over the last 4 years then Majors did in his last 4 years. This winning % has actually gotten worse the last 4 years then it was the previous 4 years before Fulmer took over.

Tubberville, Spurrier, Richt, Saban, etc all show huge improvements in their program over the previous head coach.
 
#21
#21
Originally posted by CHATTAVOL@Nov 2, 2005 10:38 AM
if he had the same record somewhere else would we want him?????
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Better question....does anybody else want him? You never hear his name come up for other jobs! IMO CPF is at the only place where he can suceed!
 
#22
#22
i think that between playcalling of randy and ainge not being up to snuff
hurt us, not phil. he recruted the 5 stars
 
#23
#23
Originally posted by TJ_dap@Nov 2, 2005 1:54 PM
i think that between playcalling of randy and ainge not being up to snuff
hurt us, not phil. he recruted the 5 stars
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I've seen some mutts better trained than some pure breeds!
 
#24
#24
Originally posted by oklavol@Nov 2, 2005 12:46 PM
The reason Fulmers winning % is so high is because he inherited a program from Majors that was loaded with talent and a top 20 team.  Richt, Tubberivlle, Saban, Spurrier, all had to build a top 20 program, they didnt inherit one like Fulmer. 

Fulmer has now lost more games over the last 4 years then Majors did in his last 4 years.  This winning % has actually gotten worse the last 4 years then it was the previous 4 years before Fulmer took over.

Tubberville, Spurrier, Richt, Saban, etc all show huge improvements in their program over the previous head coach.
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Well stated. :matrix:
 
#25
#25
Originally posted by oklavol@Nov 2, 2005 12:46 PM
The reason Fulmers winning % is so high is because he inherited a program from Majors that was loaded with talent and a top 20 team.  Richt, Tubberivlle, Saban, Spurrier, all had to build a top 20 program, they didnt inherit one like Fulmer. 

Fulmer has now lost more games over the last 4 years then Majors did in his last 4 years.  This winning % has actually gotten worse the last 4 years then it was the previous 4 years before Fulmer took over.

Tubberville, Spurrier, Richt, Saban, etc all show huge improvements in their program over the previous head coach.
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Now for the reply :D

Richt inherited plenty of talent. UGA was an annual underachiever GIVEN THEIR TALENT. Look at the number of players from the Donnan era that are in the pros. They were loaded but couldn't take the next step. Georgia was not short on talent when Richt came in.

Saban was only there 3 or 4 years

Only Spurrier demonstrated sustainability and consistency. We simply do not know how Richt and Tuberville will fair for the next 6 or 7 years. Fulmer's first 6 are as good or better than either of those guys first 6.

Bottomline - if it was so easy to replace someone with Fulmer's record with someone that will have a better record, why can't more teams do it? Why didn't Florida even come close (Zook and Meyer is a ?)?
 
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