FPI predictions

#26
#26
These numbers are too negative for sure. We have three schedule wins, three schedule losses.

So we only have 5 games left to make or break the season now:

Florida
So Car.
Kentucky
Mizzou
Vandy

FPI probabilities say we have around a 1 in 300 chance of winning all 5, if you calculate from their odds. That definitely seems off.

I don't think we sweep all 5, and go 8-4, but it wouldn't be THAT shocking of an event if we did.

We should be in striking distance in all these games, and if Florida doesn't make some strides against the run, then we will be favored there. I mean, Kentucky manhandled them and the final score was not indicative of how easily they moved the ball.
 
#27
#27
Cutting through the noise, everything hinges on the Florida game.

Even with these FPI odds, we'd have a 98% percent chance to play in a bowl if we beat the Gators.

If we lose, then we are a long shot to win 6.
 
#28
#28
I wish we had a 5% chance of beating Alabama...

Both Kentucky and Vandy have a greater than 50% chance of beating us... That's just where we are right now. It's a temporary reality, but a reality nonetheless.
 
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#29
#29
No reason to look more than one game ahead. Honestly. The spread will probably change dramatically week-to-week.

We know it'll take something magical to beat Bama, Georgia, and Auburn. We know UTEP and Charlotte will be wins. I expect every other game to be a fight and the spread will depend on how we performed the previous week.

My orange-colored prediction? I expect us to do well enough the next few weeks to be a favorite our last 5 games (that includes SC). Injuries are the key. If this team stays healthy, I think the coaching staff will have them playing at a different level by mid-season.
 
#30
#30
I think we've got a reasonable chance to beat Florida, regardless the key will be to keep the team together mentally through that murderer's row of GA, AUB, and BAMA, the team and our staff will need our support, especially if we lose each one by 4-5 touchdowns which is a distinct possibility. If we can come through that still fighting, we have a shot at all the remaining games. We always say we have the best fans in the country, here is where we prove it, GBO!
 
#31
#31
Other_Guy said:
Beating Florida wouldn't exactly be an upset.
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According to ESPN's FPI predictions the Vols beating anyone in the SEC would be a major upset as everyone is at least a 60% + chance of beating us. Very sad to see what the college football world thinks of us.
 
#32
#32
Another thought on this... it will be interesting to see how these percentages change throughout the season. Predicting late-season games at the beginning of the year is not going to be very accurate. Those %'s against teams like South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vandy especially could change by a lot as the season unfolds. We'll see..
 
#37
#37
SweetDaddy said:
That article sounds about right to me.

There isnt an SEC game we'll play that wont be a 4 quarter dog fight to win.
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The key will be to stay in the fight to the bitter end. We lost 2 games last year that we could have won late. Those being USCe and Kentucky. Also UF resorted to last play heroics and we had them beat until then. This years team is nasty and also well-coached. No turn-overs yet, few injuries, lack of unnecessary penalties are a reflection of discipline. The talent is there, it just has to blend and bond. There is no easy formula for this. We're going to get our azzes handed to us this year and that's part of the process. Hopefully UT comes out with minimum injuries and the experience makes them better. 6 wins and a bowl bid would be an achievement IMO. gO bIG oRANGE!!!
 
#39
#39
1974Vol said:
According to ESPN's FPI predictions the Vols beating anyone in the SEC would be a major upset as everyone is at least a 60% + chance of beating us. Very sad to see what the college football world thinks of us.
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Hopefully similiar to the being predicted to finish 13th in basketball last season. Just thought I'd illustrate how much I or many UT fans buy into their BS. UT is going to the top in due time and ain't no blind sports journalist got a damn clue as to what's gonna happen on any given saturday. I'm gonna 'member this shat when dey come crawling back wanting to do gameday in K-Town again. My eggs are ripening in the sun but better yet ESPN isn't welcome in knoxville in my opinion......what say you?
 
#40
#40
tbones0711 said:
Hopefully similiar to the being predicted to finish 13th in basketball last season. Just thought I'd illustrate how much I or many UT fans buy into their BS. UT is going to the top in due time and ain't no blind sports journalist got a damn clue as to what's gonna happen on any given saturday. I'm gonna 'member this shat when dey come crawling back wanting to do gameday in K-Town again. My eggs are ripening in the sun but better yet ESPN isn't welcome in knoxville in my opinion......what say you?
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I get what you're saying but ESPN, Game Day, all the analyist are like dogwood blossoms...when you see them coming back you know spring is on the way! :p
 
#41
#41
Slightly better chance of beating Alabama than Georgia, I guess due to Pruitt playing his old team. However, I believe Alabama is head and shoulders above everyone else this year so far thanks to having a quarterback that will throw the ball first and run 2nd
 
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