FPI per game projections for UT in 2022

#1
unfrozencvmanvol

unfrozencvmanvol

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#1
Ball State, 95.1% chance of a Vol victory.
@Pitt, 37.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Akron, 97.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Florida, 60.2% chance of a Vol victory.
@ LSU 32.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Alabama, 11.9% chance of a Vol victory.
UT Martin, 98.5% chance of a Vol victory.
Kentucky, 47.4% chance of a Vol victory.
Georgia, 7.4% chance of a Vol victory.
Missouri, 78.5% chance of a Vol victory.
@South Carolina, 55.9% of a Vol victory.
@ Vandy, 87.9% of a Vol victory.

So that's a 7-5 projection if you go straight percentages though several games: LSU, Pitt, Kentucky and South Carolina are pretty close.

For those that don't know:

“Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special team component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.” It is meant to be a predictive measure, and its projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using the FPI, past results and remaining schedule, and it changes on a weekly basis during the season. The preseason FPI is determined by four factors: Performance over the past four seasons with the greatest emphasis on this past season; returning starters at quarterback and on offense and defense overall; whether a team has a returning head coach; and recruiting rankings over the past four seasons.

How has the preseason FPI done predicting the Vols recently?

2018: Gave Tennessee a better than 50% chance of winning five games and the Vols went 5-7 (the Auburn upset and Vanderbilt loss were the lone “misses” from the preseason projection).

2019: Projected win total for Tennessee was 7.6 and the Vols had a better than 50% chance of winning in nine games – they won seven in the regular season even after losing the first two to Georgia State and BYU.

2020: Predicted the Vols would go 4-6 after the move to the SEC-only schedule, and they went 3-7.

2021: Projected win total was 6.6 games – the Vols won seven games, including two they were given around a 40% chance of winning.

The whole article: ESPN FPI projects every game on Tennessee’s 2022 schedule
 
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#6
#6
turbovol said:
I wouldn't say the LSU and Pitt percentages are pretty close. The Vols chances are in the 30s--32 against LSU. That's a 68 percent chance of losing, and 63 against Pitt. It's projecting more of the same for the Vols, essentially.
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That can't be.
Have they not been reading all the posts this summer on VN that say we are back and going 10-2 ??
New coach the COY?
Hooker the Heisman Trophy?
Pitt lost everybody, easy win?
LSU new coach, easy win?
Kentucky is Kentucky, easy win?
 
#7
#7
turbovol said:
I wouldn't say the LSU and Pitt percentages are pretty close. The Vols chances are in the 30s--32 against LSU. That's a 68 percent chance of losing, and 63 against Pitt. It's projecting more of the same for the Vols, essentially.
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It's more than a puncher's chance, which isn't the case for Akron, Ball State, Vandy or Missouri against us, or us against Alabama and Georgia.
 
#8
#8
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Ball State, 95.1% chance of a Vol victory.
@Pitt, 37.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Akron, 97.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Florida, 60.2% chance of a Vol victory.
@ LSU 32.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Alabama, 11.9% chance of a Vol victory.
UT Martin, 98.5% chance of a Vol victory.
Kentucky, 47.4% chance of a Vol victory.
Georgia, 7.4% chance of a Vol victory.
Missouri, 78.5% chance of a Vol victory.
@South Carolina, 55.9% of a Vol victory.
@ Vandy, 87.9% of a Vol victory.
Click to expand...

Those are the pre-season chances. We all know FPI's chances change weekly. Heck, they change constantly, including during the course of a game.

So here are what I think will be the Vols' chances at kickoff of each game:

Ball State: 98.3%
@ Pitt: 45% (because we'll have blown out Ball State, and Pitt will have struggled with WVa in week 1)
Akron: 99.0%
Florida: 68.3% (because we'll be 3-0 while Florida is either 2-1 or 1-2)
@ LSU: 47.5% (because we'll be 4-0 while LSU is 4-1, more or less a toss-up...but we play in Death Valley)
Alabama: 24.0%
UT Martin: 99.8%
Kentucky: 85.0% (because it's Kentucky and FPI finally looks at Vols-KY history)
Georgia: 33.0% (6-2 Vols against 6-2 Dawgs will be the SEC-East championship game)
Mizzou: 88.2%
@ South Carolina: 75.8%
@ Vandy: 99.1%

That's how it will be at game time. Go Vols!
 
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#11
#11
Pitt is a Top 20 team by most because they have a really good line of scrimmage team and 3 to 5 year players throughout there Roster in same system. That is why many believe they will challenge for ACC Crown. That saying they do open up with back yard brawl so can they get emotionally charged back to back weeks playing our offense. At this moment in time Tn 38- 31. Let's see who emerges through camp and Injury situation as well. In CHRIST Alone
 
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#12
#12
VFL-82-JP said:
Those are the pre-season chances. We all know FPI's chances change weekly. Heck, they change constantly, including during the course of a game.

So here are what I think will be the Vols' chances at kickoff of each game:

Ball State: 98.3%
@ Pitt: 45% (because we'll have blown out Ball State, and Pitt will have struggled with WVa in week 1)
Akron: 99.0%
Florida: 68.3% (because we'll be 3-0 while Florida is either 2-1 or 1-2)
@ LSU: 47.5% (because we'll be 4-0 while LSU is 4-1, more or less a toss-up...but we play in Death Valley)
Alabama: 24.0%
UT Martin: 99.8%
Kentucky: 85.0% (because it's Kentucky and FPI finally looks at Vols-KY history)
Georgia: 33.0% (6-2 Vols against 6-2 Dawgs will be the SEC-East championship game)
Mizzou: 88.2%
@ South Carolina: 75.8%
@ Vandy: 99.1%

That's how it will be at game time. Go Vols!
Click to expand...
You're right, they do change weekly, but the Pre-Season FPI has been pretty accurate the last 4 years on the Vols, as the article notes.
 
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#14
#14
tnutater said:
That can't be.
Have they not been reading all the posts this summer on VN that say we are back and going 10-2 ??
New coach the COY?
Hooker the Heisman Trophy?
Click to expand...
Nice try at poisoning the well.

Pitt lost everybody, easy win?
Click to expand...
They didn't lose everyone. Just everyone who made a difference when they played UT. Pickett accounted for 304 of Pitt's 397 yds vs UT. Their run game which they'll depend on MUCH more this year could not move the ball against UT's D. The only receiver who had a catch vs UT that returns is Wayne who totaled 56 yds on 3 catches. Addison is gone. Krull is gone. Mack is gone. Jacques-Louis is gone.

They expect their best WR to be a transfer from Akron. They lost their top 2 TE's.
LSU new coach, easy win?
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Easy? No. I personally don't think anyone and especially folks like you or those who choose to be optimistic know enough about them to know how good they might be. We know they will have a new QB and I wouldn't want to pick from that group. They replace 3 OL's. Their leading returnee at RB had 108 yds last year. They do return talent and depth at WR.

Nine of their top 15 tacklers (anyone with more than 18 tackles on the season) are not on their current projected defensive depth chart. They did get some portal help. But again, we don't have enough info to make a prediction or to justify your negativity.

Kentucky is Kentucky, easy win?
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UK is less talented than UT. They just are. I made a post about Levis that you should find. I cannot remember a QB with more mediocre production AND significant losses at WR who got more "love" than he's getting.

They project only 5 returning offensive starters with a new OC. Robinson is gone along with Ali, Rigg, and Epps at WR. That's 4 of their 5 top receivers. The one returning top 5 guy was Cummings who had 195 yds last year while listed as a WR is now listed as a back up TE. They lose 3 OL's.

They lose some good DL's but return some good players... to a D that had no clue how to stop UT's O last fall. If the D could have just gotten off the field a few times... that could have turned very ugly in UT's favor.... and apparently Heupel has installed more of the O and Hooker has mastered it all.

Don't know about "easy" but I do think UT is at the point of restoring order in that series.
 
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#15
#15
dduncan4163 said:
Pitt, Florida, LSU, CanTurjey, are USCjr all look like toss ups right now. We go 10-2 best case and 5-7 worst case. I'm sticking with 8-4 with a real possibility of 9-3
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IMHO, if they win less than 8 regular season games it will be an indication of some significant problems. At a minimum, it will mean that Banks isn't getting it done.
 
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#16
#16
sjt18 said:
IMHO, if they win less than 8 regular season games it will be an indication of some significant problems. At a minimum, it will mean that Banks isn't getting it done.
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I don't dusagree. Injury and depth is the reason way I say 8-4. 10-2 wouldn't shock me at all but history has taught me to expect major injuries that cost us a couple Ws. Hopefully that changes this season.
 
#17
#17
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Nonetheless, they've been pretty good at prognosticating the Vols the last 4 years.
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To the extent that is true... it becomes "the test" for Heupel or anyone else who takes the job. The coach that lifts UT out of the ditch will do two things. They will win more than projections like this say they will. They will find 4/5* talent with 3* labels.

I like Heupel. I love his leadership. Though my kneejerk preference is "old school" Pro I football... he is a genius and very innovative. Gotta love that video game feel when the O goes out. But if he can't find talent without going nose to nose with UGA and Bama and/or he cannot coach his guys up to defy predictions like these... we're going to end up with just more of the same mediocrity or worse.
 
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#18
#18
dduncan4163 said:
I don't dusagree. Injury and depth is the reason way I say 8-4. 10-2 wouldn't shock me at all but history has taught me to expect major injuries that cost us a couple Ws. Hopefully that changes this season.
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Even with a lack of depth, injuries were managed pretty well last year. The quality of the depth should be better this year and particularly on the OL. Like you I hope that injuries are even less of an obstacle this year.
 
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#19
#19
sjt18 said:
IMHO, if they win less than 8 regular season games it will be an indication of some significant problems. At a minimum, it will mean that Banks isn't getting it done.
Click to expand...
I don't dusagree. Injury and depth is the reason way I say 8-4. 10-2 wouldn't shock me at all but history has taught me to expect major injuries that cost us a couple Ws. Hopefully that changes this season.
sjt18 said:
Even with a lack of depth, injuries were managed pretty well last year. The quality of the depth should be better this year and particularly on the OL. Like you I hope that injuries are even less of an obstacle this year.
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I can dig it. Hell you have made me more optimistic. I say 9-3 with losses to UGA BAMA and either LSU USCjr or CanTurkey. iI just don't see us not stumbing at least once in those games.
 
#20
#20
dduncan4163 said:
I don't dusagree. Injury and depth is the reason way I say 8-4. 10-2 wouldn't shock me at all but history has taught me to expect major injuries that cost us a couple Ws. Hopefully that changes this season.

I can dig it. Hell you have made me more optimistic. I say 9-3 with losses to UGA BAMA and either LSU USCjr or CanTurkey. iI just don't see us not stumbing at least once in those games.
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I think you are right with 8-10 wins. As you said, lots of things will happen. Someone will get hit hard by critical injuries which could either add a win or subtract one. Say if UF lost Richardson or even if LSU has injuries at QB or the battle doesn't resolve itself cleanly.

Bama and UGA have a lot of quality depth to the point you wouldn't expect a drop off unless they had Butch Jones level injuries... but does UK have anyone who scares you if Rodriguez gets hurt? USCe may not have any quality WR's... if Vann gets hurt then that's just a disaster. They're hanging their hopes at WR on transfers from James Madison and Arkansas State.

I personally have no clue about LSU except they will have a LOT of new faces. They replace a lot of guys from last year which could be good or bad.
 
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#21
#21
dduncan4163 said:
I don't dusagree. Injury and depth is the reason way I say 8-4. 10-2 wouldn't shock me at all but history has taught me to expect major injuries that cost us a couple Ws. Hopefully that changes this season.

I can dig it. Hell you have made me more optimistic. I say 9-3 with losses to UGA BAMA and either LSU USCjr or CanTurkey. iI just don't see us not stumbing at least once in those games.
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8-4 is a good season. Obviously I hope for better and I think 9-10 wins is possible, but nobody should be bummed if we go 8-4. It will be another step in the right direction, with Nico on the way.
 
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#22
#22
sjt18 said:
I think you are right with 8-10 wins. As you said, lots of things will happen. Someone will get hit hard by critical injuries which could either add a win or subtract one. Say if UF lost Richardson or even if LSU has injuries at QB or the battle doesn't resolve itself cleanly.

Bama and UGA have a lot of quality depth to the point you wouldn't expect a drop off unless they had Butch Jones level injuries... but does UK have anyone who scares you if Rodriguez gets hurt? USCe may not have any quality WR's... if Vann gets hurt then that's just a disaster. They're hanging their hopes at WR on transfers from James Madison and Arkansas State.

I personally have no clue about LSU except they will have a LOT of new faces. They replace a lot of guys from last year which could be good or bad.
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USCjr only worries me because it's gonna be a very hostile environment. LSU for the same reason. We got the horses to win those games but it won't be easy. Kentucky we should win but our offense has to be humming. They are stout on the lines of scrimmage and we will get their best shot. I will also say that if we are healthy against Bama and UGA we have a real shot at splitting those games. They are more talented but they will definitely get our best shot. If they come out flat we can get the W. First time in years I have genuinely believed that.

I'm all in on Heup. I'm confident he's the guy we've been waiting for. Beating Florida is the key to the season imo. If he gets that monkey off our back then the sky could be the limit. If we can be 5-0 when Bama comes calling Neyland will be rocking like it's the late 90s For the first time in a LONG time I won't be shocked with double digit wins. 2007 was a long time ago but Heup has these kids believing.
 
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#23
#23
VFL-82-JP said:
Those are the pre-season chances. We all know FPI's chances change weekly. Heck, they change constantly, including during the course of a game.

So here are what I think will be the Vols' chances at kickoff of each game:

Ball State: 98.3%
@ Pitt: 45% (because we'll have blown out Ball State, and Pitt will have struggled with WVa in week 1)
Akron: 99.0%
Florida: 68.3% (because we'll be 3-0 while Florida is either 2-1 or 1-2)
@ LSU: 47.5% (because we'll be 4-0 while LSU is 4-1, more or less a toss-up...but we play in Death Valley)
Alabama: 24.0%
UT Martin: 99.8%
Kentucky: 85.0% (because it's Kentucky and FPI finally looks at Vols-KY history)
Georgia: 33.0% (6-2 Vols against 6-2 Dawgs will be the SEC-East championship game)
Mizzou: 88.2%
@ South Carolina: 75.8%
@ Vandy: 99.1%

That's how it will be at game time. Go Vols!
Click to expand...

You wanta give me uga's 2 losses to be 6-2 ? Asking for a betting friend.
 
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#24
#24
bray2milton said:
They have a formidable defensive line and the transfer qb Slovis from Southern Cal but I think we win by 10. If Hooker had started last year against them we win that game by 20+.
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Our defense is suspect again this yr. It depends if they can get off the field and if the offense can drain clock in4th quarter.
 
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