Finish this sentence. For the Vols to make the 2024 playoffs…

#52
#52
3 factors all come together. NIL, Portal and the 2.5 super conferences.
These all combine to create more parity than we have seen in a long time in college football. The bottom is still the bottom but the middle class is stronger than ever.

Michigan and OSU no longer get a free ride through their conference schedules. Competition in the SEC is gonna rise. Even the ACC is going to be more competitive. Having an undefeated season in those conferences is gonna be rare. Late season undefeateds will mostly be schools from tiny conferences. The james madisons and liberties of the world. 2 loss teams in championship games will be a normal thing.

Every regular season game becomes more important because now 1-2 losses does not end your playoff hopes anymore. Crap like Georgia missing the playoffs with 1 loss wont happen. FSU being left out made sense. Had they been left in a 4 team playoff they become a round 1 roadbump. They had no QB period. They won the ACC championship despite their QB against an overated Louisville team. The season ended crazy and I think the committee made the best choices they could.

For the vols to make the playoffs we need to win 10 regular season games period. We dont have to make the SEC championship. With our schedule if we can win 10 games we are in. Possibly if we win 3. It really comes down to IF our opponents early on are as good as advertised. Because its not just a out us winning games its about what our opponents do also.

Here is an example. NC State abd Oklahoma we play both early in the season. They will both likely be ranked too 20 when we face them. Lets say qe beat them both..great. What they do next matters. Say they both go on to win 8-9 games abd are ranked end of season? Thats very good for our SOS and SOR. But say one or both of them craps out barely makes a bowl and tumbles out of rankings. That hurts our rating.

SOS and SOR which are huge parts of the playoff rankings are not set numbers. They change as the season goes on based on results. OSU started off with a fairly low SOS and High SOR. As the season went on their SOR went down and their SOS went up because they played (and lost to michigan and Missouri) before that theyd only played 2 teams with a pulse. Penn State and ND. By end of season OSU had a higher SOS than Georgia which is ridiculous if you look at who they both played. But Georgias SOR is higher because OSU lost their big 2 games. Bama losing to Michigan actually boosted OSUs ratings and hurt UGA in final rankings.

Its all complex but simple. Play a decent schedule win lots of games the rest will work itself out. I predict that OSU and UT likely have very similar records next year.
 
#58
#58
Open up the offense more like 2022, and I think we will be in the playoffs. Need much more downfield passing, and the middle of the field. And more up tempo than this year.
 
#63
#63
- Nico needs to learn to let it fly (away when needed)

- Seldon needs to become a strong #2 back. Starter caliber

- Heard and Johnson need to keep Nico clean.

- Somebody has to emerge opposite of Pearce Jr
- Turrentine continue to surge.
- McCoy and Gibson need play above average at CB.

- Thornton and Matthews need to stretch the field

- Heupel use the TEs
 
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#64
#64
Offensive line has to solidify.

DBs need to be able to cover in man and make plays.

Pierce and combust stay healthy. If we can get pressure with four, we are going to be golden in defense. If it takes five or six, we are not very good.

Nico needs to be efficient and keep the offense on the field or celebrating scores. He seemed to have some good situational awareness in the bowl game, so hopefully he can build on that. Milton missed a lot of opportunities to get a new set of downs. We go fast and a 3-out with our offense can be devastating for our defense.

We need to avoid the head scratcher loss. We have had them all three seasons with Heupel. If we can escape the regular season with only two losses, we should be in the playoff. Alabama is a total crapshoot. Georgia will be tough. We somehow turn Florida into the best team in the NCAA once week a year for most of the last 40 years. We cannot afford to lose more than one of those with the rest of the schedule. Oklahoma early in the season with a Freshman QB and Nc State early as well will be tough games.

We can make it, but a lot has to go right and we can’t have injuries.
 
#65
#65
If we only lose to Georgia and Oklahoma, we're probably in.

Edit: as long as Oklahoma isn't straight hot dog water that is
 
#70
#70
cgrish said:
I don't think a 3 loss team will make it. Too many on the committee that goes by the won loss record, regardless of who they played.
Click to expand...
Incorrect. Its more about timing than anything else. If you lose early in the season to a good team its held against you less. Its all about timing. But look at the final top 12 after championship games this year. Multiple teams would have made the playoffs. Thats first. Secondly the reorganizing of the top 3 conferences means its almost a given there will be multiple too teams with 2-3 losses.
 
#73
#73
The media already loves Nico 10-2 the Vols are in no daubt. And I believe they will...
 
#75
#75
I think we will be in good shape at the beginning of the year. If we stay relatively healthy then I don’t see why we wouldn’t be in the playoffs. That’s a big key though. We’ve are thin in the defensive backfield. I think the starters will be improved. Turrentine and Gibson looked like sure upgrades and we have the OR State and MTSU kid coming in.

OL now looks good but we will need the young guys be ready to contribute this year.
 
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