Evaluating Our Opponents

#1

DiderotsGhost

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#1
VolNation,

What are your thoughts on our opponents after three weeks? Here are my rankings based on what I've seen so far.

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
5. Missouri
6. Kentucky
7. Arkansas
8. Bowling Green
9. South Carolina
10. Vanderbilt
11. North Texas
12. Western Carolina

And if you don't trust my opinion, here are Sagarin's ratings based on all of college football. Note I included UT in this list for comparative purposes.

2. Alabama
3. Georgia
14. Oklahoma
21. Tennessee
38. Florida
44. Missouri
45. Arkansas
46. South Carolina
54. Kentucky
65. Bowling Green
81. Vanderbilt
146. North Texas
180. Western Carolina

I've watched a bit of our next three opponents in action, so thought it would be worthwhile to analyze.

Florida

I'm already seeing a ton of posts on how terrible Florida is this year. Don't buy it. Florida still has loads of talent. Florida struggled against East Carolina and Kentucky, but they ended up winning in the end. I'd say Florida has actually looked better than expected thus far.

Florida's defense is still among the best in the country. They forced a few key turnovers versus East Carolina that really won them the game. East Carolina couldn't run the ball at all on Florida. Defense also won the game versus Kentucky. Florida's D could prove to be a major issue for us.

Florida's offense, on the other hand, is not looking too great. Florida only put up about 240 yards against Kentucky. They've had a few key turnovers.

Based on everything I've seen, I'd say Tennessee should be a slight favorite against Florida. However, saying this is an "easy game" or that we're terrible if we lose to Florida is simply wrong. Florida isn't a top 10 team, but they are a good team. Our weak pass protection could be a big issue against them, but conversely, their O-line is also a weakness.

Arkansas

Similar to Florida, I think too many people at VN are concluding Arkansas is horrible based on a few games. That said, I do think Arkansas is looking more vulnerable now than they might have preseason. The loss to Toledo was only shocking because most people don't know how good Toledo is. Likewise, Texas Tech is a good team. Nevertheless, both of those games were in Fayetteville and going 0-2 in that stretch doesn't bode well for Arkansas.

Right now, I'd say that we look like bigger favorites versus Arkansas. I wouldn't write Arky off and they'll be desperate for a big win when they get to Knoxville (particularly if they lose to A&M next week), but their defense struggled against Texas Tech and their offense struggled against Toledo. They have not looked very impressive so far and I don't see their D giving us the same problems that Oklahoma's did. Even more critically, our run defense has looked much improved this season, and that doesn't bode well for run-heavy Arkansas.

Georgia

If Florida looks winnable and we look like decent favorites versus Arkansas, Georgia is looking like a very tough game. I'd go so far as to say that Georgia might be the best team in the SEC.

I watched both of UGA's games the past two weeks versus Vandy and SC. UGA's defense is looking national championship caliber. Their pass rush is going to be a MAJOR CHALLENGE for our offensive line. Jeremy Pruitt has been a huge upgrade over Todd Grantham and the results are starting to show.

UGA's offense looks very good, but not quite great. The running game is spectacular with Chubb, Michel, and several other capable backs. Their wide receivers aren't quite as good as ours, but they are more than capable. Their O-line is probably one of the best in the nation and held up very well vs SC.

The only real question mark is Quarterback. Greyson Lambert may not be the second-coming of Peyton Manning, but he's OK. His completion percentage is about 75% and he has zero INTs on the season. He was 24/25 against South Carolina. Let's not forget that QB was also our "question mark" in our national championship season. This UGA team is loaded pretty much everywhere but QB.

Strangely, it seems like almost everyone is writing off UGA this season. I'm not sure why, except that that they've been disappointing in the past. Yet, this is a completely different team than the one two years ago. I'd almost certainly consider UGA and Alabama as our two most difficult opponents.

The Rest


Missouri. Has looked awful the first few weeks. But don't forget they looked awful the beginning of last season, as well. If there's any certainty, it's that Mizzou gets better as the season goes on. Also, the defense has looked pretty good; the struggles have mostly been on offense.

Kentucky. Don't have a full read on Kentucky yet. Hope to see them play a few more opponents first.

Vanderbilt. The defense for Vandy is actually much better than anticipated. Offense is still pretty bad.

South Carolina.
Not a good looking team right now. More struggles on offense than expected. Defense looking improved over last year, but I'd say SC looks like the 2nd worst team in the SEC right now.

Alabama. Come on, VN. One loss against a very tough Ole Miss team is not proof that Bama is weak this year. This is still one of the best teams in the nation. A win against Bama would be a big upset.

That's all I got. I still think the expectation is probably around 8-4. UGA and Bama look better than us so far. We play enough "good" opponents that I'd expect us to lose against at least one. Think we'll learn a lot more the next two weeks.

GO BIG ORANGE!
 
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#2
#2
VolNation,

What are your thoughts on our opponents after three weeks? Here are my rankings based on what I've seen so far.

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
5. Missouri
6. Kentucky
7. Arkansas
8. Bowling Green
9. South Carolina
10. Vanderbilt
11. North Texas
12. Western Carolina

And if you don't trust my opinion, here are Sagarin's ratings based on all of college football. Note I included UT in this list for comparative purposes.

2. Alabama
3. Georgia
14. Oklahoma
21. Tennessee
38. Florida
44. Missouri
45. Arkansas
46. South Carolina
54. Kentucky
65. Bowling Green
81. Vanderbilt
146. North Texas
180. Western Carolina

I've watched a bit of our next three opponents in action, so thought it would be worthwhile to analyze.

Florida

I'm already seeing a ton of posts on how terrible Florida is this year. Don't buy it. Florida still has loads of talent. Florida struggled against East Carolina and Kentucky, but they ended up winning in the end. I'd say Florida has actually looked better than expected thus far.

Florida's defense is still among the best in the country. They forced a few key turnovers versus East Carolina that really won them the game. East Carolina couldn't run the ball at all on Florida. Defense also won the game versus Kentucky. Florida's D could prove to be a major issue for us.

Florida's offense, on the other hand, is not looking too great. Florida only put up about 240 yards against Kentucky. They've had a few key turnovers.

Based on everything I've seen, I'd say Tennessee should be a slight favorite against Florida. However, saying this is an "easy game" or that we're terrible if we lose to Florida is simply wrong. Florida isn't a top 10 team, but they are a good team. Our weak pass protection could be a big issue against them, but conversely, their O-line is also a weakness.

Arkansas

Similar to Florida, I think too many people at VN are concluding Arkansas is horrible based on a few games. That said, I do think Arkansas is looking more vulnerable now than they might have preseason. The loss to Toledo was only shocking because most people don't know how good Toledo is. Likewise, Texas Tech is a good team. Nevertheless, both of those games were in Fayetteville and going 0-2 in that stretch doesn't bode well for Arkansas.

Right now, I'd say that we look like bigger favorites versus Arkansas. I wouldn't write Arky off and they'll be desperate for a big win when they get to Knoxville (particularly if they lose to A&M next week), but their defense struggled against Texas Tech and their offense struggled against Toledo. They have not looked very impressive so far and I don't see their D giving us the same problems that Oklahoma's did. Even more critically, our run defense has looked much improved this season, and that doesn't bode well for run-heavy Arkansas.

Georgia

If Florida looks winnable and we look like decent favorites versus Arkansas, Georgia is looking like a very tough game. I'd go so far as to say that Georgia might be the best team in the SEC.

I watched both of UGA's games the past two weeks versus Vandy and SC. UGA's defense is looking national championship caliber. Their pass rush is going to be a MAJOR CHALLENGE for our offensive line. Jeremy Pruitt has been a huge upgrade over Todd Grantham and the results are starting to show.

UGA's offense looks very good, but not quite great. The running game is spectacular with Chubb, Michel, and several other capable backs. Their wide receivers aren't quite as good as ours, but they are more than capable. Their O-line is probably one of the best in the nation and held up very well vs SC.

The only real question mark is Quarterback. Greyson Lambert may not be the second-coming of Peyton Manning, but he's OK. His completion percentage is about 75% and he has zero INTs on the season. He was 24/25 against South Carolina. Let's not forget that QB was also our "question mark" in our national championship season. This UGA team is loaded pretty much everywhere but QB.

Strangely, it seems like almost everyone is writing off UGA this season. I'm not sure why, except that that they've been disappointing in the past. Yet, this is a completely different team than the one two years ago. I'd almost certainly consider UGA and Alabama as our two most difficult opponents.

The Rest


Missouri. Has looked awful the first few weeks. But don't forget they looked awful the beginning of last season, as well. If there's any certainty, it's that Mizzou gets better as the season goes on. Also, the defense has looked pretty good; the struggles have mostly been on offense.

Kentucky. Don't have a full read on Kentucky yet. Hope to see them play a few more opponents first.

Vanderbilt. The defense for Vandy is actually much better than anticipated. Offense is still pretty bad.

South Carolina.
Not a good looking team right now. More struggles on offense than expected. Defense looking improved over last year, but I'd say SC looks like the 2nd worst team in the SEC right now.

Alabama. Come on, VN. One loss against a very tough Ole Miss team is not proof that Bama is weak this year. This is still one of the best teams in the nation. A win against Bama would be a big upset.

That's all I got. I still think the expectation is probably around 8-4. UGA and Bama look better than us so far. We play enough "good" opponents that I'd expect us to lose against at least one. Think we'll learn a lot more the next two weeks.

GO BIG ORANGE!

Great analysis. I agree with everything you said, although I tend to believe that we will be 9-3 after the regular season, potentially playing in the SECCG, depending on how many bullets are in the gun Mark Richt perpetually keeps pointed at his foot.
 
#3
#3
If we can count on O-Bama to turn the ball over 5 times like they did last night, we will beat them. Grease that football! Bummer may still be the best team we face. They still were within a score of pulling out last night.

Geo only beat Vandy by 17! I'm not sold on Lambert yet either. We'll find out just how good they are or aren't in about 2 weeks when they host the Crimson Turd.

Mizzou: their cupboard is bare and the loss of Russell Hansborough hurts them a lot. Still a respectable defense.

SCAR: Dumpster fire in the making. If they played next week, I would take Vandy over SCAR.

Ark: Season-ending injuries are taking their toll and now they have morale problems to boot. If Toledo can beat them in Fayetteville, we can beat them in Knoxville.

Flo: Weak offense, worst Oline in SEC. Good-to-Great defense.

Vandy: Good Defense. Not much else.

KY: had a chance to go 3 or 4-0 in SEC and blew it (SCAR, Flo, Mizzou, Aub).
 
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#4
#4
Good analysis, fair assessment. I think we lose to UGA and Bama, and we're too inconsistent to sweep all 7 remaining games besides that. Loss will likely come to UF, UK or Mizzou on the road. Not amazing, but I would take 8-4 (5-3) this year.
 
#5
#5
Great analysis. I agree with everything you said, although I tend to believe that we will be 9-3 after the regular season, potentially playing in the SECCG, depending on how many bullets are in the gun Mark Richt perpetually keeps pointed at his foot.

I think this is the year all the stars align for Richt. Let's all remember that CPF's vols perpetually dropped a game or two every year too...
 
#6
#6
Ole Miss is the best team in the SEC but I agree with the rest. LSU is a close second for the best team as well. Georgia game is gonna be difficult for us to win. I think it's a loss right now.
 
#7
#7
Arkansas fans are having a meltdown now. Our defense is a sieve, injuries are mounting and many of us fear we will not win a conference game. Still, I will be coming to Knoxville next month because I've always wanted to experience Neyland Stadium. I may stay drunk all weekend.
 
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#8
#8
Man I started reading and thought I'd scroll back up to the top and make sure its a recent post. But it is. Have you actually watched Arkansas? I did...and they straight out suck. Florida has looked terrible as well. How have they looked better than us so far? We had two total blowouts and a loss to a ranked opponent. Georgia has looked ok but vandy and sc are both terrible. We should have our best record in years but who knows.
 
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#9
#9
Good read OP. I see much of the same items, being close to even in most games and likely 8-4 / 9-3 type season. Barring additional injuries to the limited depth, this is a good season to measure the coaches - game plans, adjustments, and player match-ups.

Starts this week with Florida. Stout D's against and schizophrenic offenses.
 
#10
#10
Arkansas fans are having a meltdown now. Our defense is a sieve, injuries are mounting and many of us fear we will not win a conference game. Still, I will be coming to Knoxville next month because I've always wanted to experience Neyland Stadium. I may stay drunk all weekend.

Tough season so far for your team. Thought they were a bit overrated but my goodness. I did't think it'd be this bad.
 
#11
#11
Arkansas fans are having a meltdown now. Our defense is a sieve, injuries are mounting and many of us fear we will not win a conference game. Still, I will be coming to Knoxville next month because I've always wanted to experience Neyland Stadium. I may stay drunk all weekend.

We've had a lot of injuries this year, too, but I definitely think the Hogs have had the worst injuries in the SEC. Pretty brutal in the SEC West, too.
 
#12
#12
Good post and I agree with the analysis. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win. The 5-7 years are behind us now.
 
#13
#13
Florida has a very strong defense. I haven't seen an over/under line yet but am leaning toward under (for entertainment purposes only)
Georgia has a ton of talent. They also have Richt which makes up for having so much talent.
'Bama is loaded but can't seem to figure out what they do have.
Mizzoo is struggling to find themselves. I hope they don't find "it."
Arkansas might be in a death spiral.
Kentucky might be in a rising spiral -- not there yet but turning the corner.
Vandy is still Vandy.
So Carolina is beat up with a difficult recruiting path. The Ole Ball Coach is on his way to playing golf.
 

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