ESPN still says we go 6-6

#27
#27
chatt-townVOL said:
Not every defense is Florida/Oklahoma/Ole Miss. After this weekend you will start seeing a lot more production out of the offense.

And yes I said Florida. For all their faults, their defense is stout.
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wow .your saying against Kentucky and Candy our offense will be improved?
 
#28
#28
volgrad500 said:
Your eagerness to be a @#$ made you miss the point. I don't think they would be a subpar opponent, I just don't think we should give an instate team the exposure of playing us. If I'm not mistaken, UT even has this in writing in regards to the Liberty Bowl. But please keep being an obnoxious poster.
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Yeah that's what you meant. Whatever. That instate team has already had plenty of exposure this year. They played Ole Miss too.
 
#29
#29
BigOrangeTrain said:
Yeah that's what you meant. Whatever. That instate team has already had plenty of exposure this year. They played Ole Miss too.
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Uh yeah, that's what I meant. Your statement comparing playing us as opposed to playing Ole Miss demonstrates that you still don't understand what I'm saying.
 
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#30
#30
volgrad500 said:
What the @#$# is the Duck Commander Independence Bowl?? ALso, I see no upside in playing the Memphis Kitties.
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Huge upside... Low travel costs=more money in our pocket, and even bigger is fact we will be on Tv and playing in the backyard of a heavy recruit population..
 
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#31
#31
The Missouri game is the key IMO. We have to win that one. I don't believe we get 6 unless we get that one. South Carolina will be tough on the road and given the fact they will be up for that game due to last year's loss. Kentucky at home and the way Vandy is playing are promising, but Missouri is our make or break game. They looked very beatable in the Georgia Game and their defense and special teams won the Florida game for them.
 
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#32
#32
DocVOLiday said:
Does that mean they kinda like us (not quite love, but not hate)?
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I think they like and respect CBJ. They seem to acknowledge that he's turning things around. The improvements still haven't found their way into the W/L record yet but it's obvious that there has been a culture change. We're not that far away. I really believe that we're about three o lineman away from being 5-2 or maybe 6-1.
 
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#33
#33
I think we will do well to go 5-7. Time to look forward to next year. Problem is we will have a lot of freshman playing....go figure
 
#36
#36
Any Bowl and a 6-6 would be (at this point in time) Fantastic!!!!! We need something, CBJ promised us a bowl, that would help his street creds.
Our team is beat-up, Worley has been stomped on and yet keeps going.
Getting to a bowl may give our Vols the lift they will need to start next year, and shouldn't hurt recruiting efforts in the future.
A 5-7 or worse would be devastating for both recruiting and team moral.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed-Damn would I love to see UT back on top- an SEC powerhouse, just like the good old days!!!
 
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#37
#37
VolFootballIsLife said:
Here's the deal...I was really excited about a 7-5 season that included a big statement win. I didn't expect our OLine to be this far behind the rest of the league. Beating Bama is the only chance left to make this year a success. I probably shouldn't let myself succumb to the feeling of hope but I'll be watching Saturday with optimism and belief. I would take a win Saturday over a &$@)ing Duck Commander Independence Bowl!!

Anything to send our Seniors off in style.
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We need a bowl. Period.
 
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#38
#38
chatt-townVOL said:
Not every defense is Florida/Oklahoma/Ole Miss. After this weekend you will start seeing a lot more production out of the offense.

And yes I said Florida. For all their faults, their defense is stout.
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Agree 100%...I say we go 6-6 as well and may go 7-5 with a little luck.
 
#40
#40
chatt-townVOL said:
Not every defense is Florida/Oklahoma/Ole Miss. After this weekend you will start seeing a lot more production out of the offense.

And yes I said Florida. For all their faults, their defense is stout.
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I pray to eight pound six ounce infant baby Jesus that you are right.
 
#41
#41
jlindsa4 said:
Explain. Please. I want to hear this rationale.
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It's math, not rationale/logic. Just convert all of the percentages to decimals and add them up. You get 2.5.

Add that to the 3 wins we already have and you get 5.5 --which means ESPN's system is basically saying there is an equal chance of winning 5 or 6.

Don't beleive me,

the expected value of a discrete random variable is the probability-weighted average of all possible values. In other words, each possible value the random variable can assume is multiplied by its probability of occurring, and the resulting products are summed to produce the expected value.
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Expected value - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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#43
#43
Where is the link to the projection of us in bowls vs either Pitt or Memphis? Only projection I found was the Texas bowl...

Thanks.
 
#44
#44
WesternKyVol said:
It's math, not rationale/logic. Just convert all of the percentages to decimals and add them up. You get 2.5.

Add that to the 3 wins we already have and you get 5.5 --which means ESPN's system is basically saying there is an equal chance of winning 5 or 6.

Don't beleive me,



Expected value - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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90 percent on here will not understand this. But they know that Dooley and Hamilton are responsible for all the bad in the program and that butch will turn it around if given four years.
 
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#46
#46
WesternKyVol said:
It's math, not rationale/logic. Just convert all of the percentages to decimals and add them up. You get 2.5.

Add that to the 3 wins we already have and you get 5.5 --which means ESPN's system is basically saying there is an equal chance of winning 5 or 6.

Don't beleive me,



Expected value - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Click to expand...


For fun, because I'm bored, and also due to a conversation with a friend earlier, I decided to calculate our projected outcomes based on ESPN's percentages per game.

Bama - 18.2%
USC - 37.8%
UK - 66.8%
Mizzou - 57.9%
Vandy - 82.8%

Based on this, our projected records are as follows:

3-9: 1.2%
4-8: 11.0%
5-7: 31.8%
6-6: 37.0%
7-5: 16.7%
8-4: 2.2%

So with those odds, the expected value is:

(3*.012)+(4*.11)+(5*.318)+(6*.37)+(7*.167)+(8*.022) = 5.631

Projected number of wins is 5.6 wins. Not very flattering. The way I choose to look at this is we stick to the individual odds and end up with 6 wins.

OfficialStamp-gif-red.gif
 
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#48
#48
6 wins is doable

It may require some tweaks to our offense. If the coaches remain stubborn about the process instead of actually game planning for each team then it won't happen. I'll remain loyal to the Vols and trust the staff to get the job done until it doesn't -- I would rather cheer and be disappointed than be a defeatist (or realist or whatever they are calling themselves these days)
 
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#50
#50
BSGVOL said:
The Missouri game is the key IMO. We have to win that one. I don't believe we get 6 unless we get that one. South Carolina will be tough on the road and given the fact they will be up for that game due to last year's loss. Kentucky at home and the way Vandy is playing are promising, but Missouri is our make or break game. They looked very beatable in the Georgia Game and their defense and special teams won the Florida game for them.
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The Mizzu game was key for Doofus as well. Remember...? When we had 5-6 NFL skill position players on offense and Doofus let the time expire with 30+ seconds left to go into overtime and ultimately lose?
I don't think CBJ would have done that, but the game may be key for him as well.
 
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