ESPN Mag: Vols Win All With FPI Win %

#1
Jacksonvol

Jacksonvol

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#1
Don't post very often here but do read what all of you have to say...It's possible that the following has been posted and, somehow, I missed it...If so, I apologize for doing it again...

Just bought a copy of the ESPN College Football Magazine, and according to their staff, the Vols are ranked #5 in FPI and are projected to win all games by the following percentage likelihood:

APSU - 95%
Va Tech - 86%
Ohio - 99%
Fla - 81%
Ga -56%
A&M - 59%
Bama - 59%
USC (east) - 83%
Tenn Tech - 99%
Ky - 94%
Missouri - 93%
Vandy - 89%

Rather impressive that only Ga., A&M, & Bama are even in the ballpark..Articles about Vols are very positive.....Hope, like every Vol fan, that these folks are right!!!
 
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#2
#2
I'll take those odds.

But, multiple CFB numbers gurus have TN at 9-3 because they have TX am, UGA, and Bama as still having a more talented roster than TN (which is true if you just go blindly on the recruiting rankings over the past 4 years).

I'd like our chances at 11-1 much more if our four hardest games were not back to back to back. That is a tough stretch and I think we'll likely drop a couple. I just hope we beat UF and UGA because those are most important for getting to ATL.
 
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#4
#4
Why don't one of you stat guys keep these numbers and repost them with updated ones after the FL or GA game. I am too scatter brained to do it myself:)
 
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#5
#5
Can't believe that magazine had something worth reading! Was given a 2 year subscription to it & it was 99% worthless!
 
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#6
#6
I think 10-2 would get us to ATL.

I think we drop one during that stretch of UGA, aTm, AL
 
#7
#7
Neyland Law Vol said:
I'll take those odds.

I'd like our chances at 11-1 much more if our four hardest games were not back to back to back. That is a tough stretch and I think we'll likely drop a couple. I just hope we beat UF and UGA because those are most important for getting to ATL.
Click to expand...

May have to burn some otherwise freshmen RS's in order to get thru this stretch (to make this THE year)?
 
#8
#8
I think the FPI intentionally does not consider scheduling variables, like venue (home? away?) and timing (after a bye week? after a series of tough games?).

It is only intended to be an "if everything else were equal, who has the better team" kind of comparison.

So that explains how we can be "favored" by the FPI in the GA and Bama games, but pick-em or underdog according to Vegas in both games.
 
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#9
#9
VFL-82-JP said:
I think the FPI intentionally does not consider scheduling variables, like venue (home? away?) and timing (after a bye week? after a series of tough games?).

It is only intended to be an "if everything else were equal, who has the better team" kind of comparison.

So that explains how we can be "favored" by the FPI in the GA and Bama games, but pick-em or underdog according to Vegas in both games.
Click to expand...

I know it considers venue, as we have a higher chance of beating Bama vs Uga.
 
#10
#10
appyvol said:
I know it considers venue, as we have a higher chance of beating Bama vs Uga.
Click to expand...

Ah, good point. Maybe it does consider these variables, and I'm remembering wrong. This is a direct quote from ESPN's site:
"FPI: Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field."
Click to expand...
But perhaps they've added a venue/schedule component to the head-to-head predictions.
 
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#13
#13
Butch has done a great job having our guys ready on the road. We almost beat Bama in Tuscaloosa last year and UGA in Athens the year before. Oh and UF last year in the swamp.
 
#14
#14
Of course Tennessee fortune would have it that the 4 games we have the lowest percent chance of winning are all played in a row in consecutive weeks.
 
#15
#15
QuickSmurf said:
Butch has done a great job having our guys ready on the road. We almost beat Bama in Tuscaloosa last year and UGA in Athens the year before. Oh and UF last year in the swamp.
Click to expand...

Almost! Seriously, they played hard in those games.
 
#17
#17
QuickSmurf said:
Butch has done a great job having our guys ready on the road. We almost beat Bama in Tuscaloosa last year and UGA in Athens the year before. Oh and UF last year in the swamp.
Click to expand...

And still, we lost all of those games. This year has to be different. Significantly different.
 
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