ESPN FPI says 87% Vols

[BanditVol]

Florida vs. Tennessee - Game Summary - September 24, 2022 - ESPN

I am pretty sure that's the highest ever against them, by a wide margin. I get that it's just a computer, but look at the numbers in that link.

1. We score twice as much as they do.
2. We allow slightly more than half as many points as they do.
3. We have an above average rush attack, they are 113th in the country in run defense.


The grain of salt is that we have played a much easier schedule, both Ball State and Akron are just putrid teams....but at the same time UF only has two wins because both Utah and USF self-destructed at the end of the respective games.

I know the history of this series, I know all about the "mental hangups", etc....

But THIS Vol is very confident that we win comfortably, and may just beat the brakes off of them.

Heupel is only 15 games in, but seems to do a good job of having the team approach every game the same way.

We will see! I am really looking forward to it. I honestly can't recall the last time I said that, maybe 2015 or 2016, but I am confident we win.

 

[NeverWe'llSever]

Regardless, I will be there in Neyland Stadium at 3:30 PM and give my all for Tennessee.

 

[General Jack]

I doubt CJH has much mental hang-up with this game. Players too for that matter... its mainly just us long suffering fans. For that reason, WGWTFA Saturday.

 

[VolBricks]

BVS aside, I am cautiously optimistic with the FPI @87%


Edit: All it takes is for Richardson to get hot and make a few big runs and the "win tracker" will move significantly closer to 50/50

 

[casetopia]

please let this finally be the year to get this monkey off our back. Go Vols!

 

[orangebloodgmc]

I think the key difference this year, is that the 2022 Vols can trail on the road at ranked Pitt, keep their composure, and get back on track. We may trail at some point vs. FLA, but if we just put on more steam, we can get 'em this year.

 

[Gandalf]

There is no question it is ours to lose. Based on what I have seen so far, Florida can't beat us this game but we absolutely can lose it to them if we let ourselves be stupid and make crazy mistakes or come out of the tunnel out of sync.

The one benefit is I think that even if we struggle early, FL offense just will not be able to jam a bunch of points on the board to get it away from us early. Our D is not world beaters but they are doing much better IMO and should be able to keep it honest long enough for the O to kick in. Once it does, I cant see Gator D stopping the deep downfield.

 

[Capt Straight]

I'll be there with grandson screaming until my voice is lost! Florida sucks!

 

[DaddyChad]

Fact is that Florida could be sitting at 0-3 right now and on the edge of self destructing. However I think it’s more satisfying for them to be coming in ranked and have some expectations of a decent season.

 

[allvol123]

Not watched UF much, that said I’ve not seen us look great yet. 2 cupcakes and we did enough bad things at Pitt to get beat. I have a lot of VBS with regards to UF.

 

[NeverWe'llSever]

Not watched UF much, that said I’ve not seen us look great yet. 2 cupcakes and we did enough bad things at Pitt to get beat. I have a lot of VBS with regards to UF.

If we play like that, we could lose.

 

[Other_Guy]

Regardless, I will be there in Neyland Stadium at 3:30 PM and give my all for Tennessee.

Which is plenty of

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

ESPN doesn't hate us???

 

[MAD]

 

[PayingUTKTuition]

I would be all in, but I can't get the last 17 or so years out of my mind. Too many times we had the better team and lost the game. Or Florida would come up with some miracle at the end. Cautiously optimistic.

 

[Jeff Clark]

Tennessee is going to smoke a really weak Florida team.

 

[USMC-TNVOL]

Previous FPIs:
2015-56% for TN
2016-56% for TN
2017-65% for FL
2018-62% for FL
2019-86% for FL
2020-84% for FL
2021-88% for FL

Well we can’t say the FPI has heavily favored us at any point against FL yet like this.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Previous FPIs:
2015-56% for TN
2016-56% for TN
2017-65% for FL
2018-62% for FL
2019-86% for FL
2020-84% for FL
2021-88% for FL

Well we can’t say the FPI has heavily favored us at any point against FL yet like this.

That 2015 game still pisses me off.

 

[rocketskates]

We are the better team and by a decent margin. Just gotta execute. USF is awful and Utah was overrated. Still, both should’ve beaten the lizards. Ideally, I don’t want a good game. I want to beat the snot out of them and establish a new era.

 

[08Vol]

This is going to be the best defense we’ve played this year so our offense won’t look as good. We are weak at RB right now and that hurts with the matchups.

The officials will play a HUGE role in this game as I expect UF defenders to grab and hold our WRs and force the officials to throw a flag. On that same point, UF defenders will be more than happy to take a 15 yd PI over a WR blowing by them for a 40+ yd TD.

It is very likely one reason UF looked so bad against USF is b/c they spent most of last week practicing and game planning for UT. AR didn’t run much against USF to protect his ankle. That limitation won’t be there against us. UF’s game plan is to run it down our throats. If our offense has a lot of quick 3 & outs then our D will get tired quick and UF will bust some big runs.

 

[TennEddie]

I moved to Florida in 1990, the same year SOS returned to UF.
I have been battered more than a Captain D’s filet.
Now I am like Dusty Springfield, “ Wish’n and Hope‘n “.

 

[Southeastern VFL]

We just have to be focused and ready to play come Saturday. This Florida be in the moment as if it was the game they are every going to play. If Tennessee plays with passion and stays discipline on both sides of the ball then we could control this game from start to finish. Do to them what Spurrier did to us put it in there mind that if you slip against us we will have no mercy.

 

[Walkman]

Previous FPIs:
2015-56% for TN
2016-56% for TN
2017-65% for FL
2018-62% for FL
2019-86% for FL
2020-84% for FL
2021-88% for FL

Well we can’t say the FPI has heavily favored us at any point against FL yet like this.

Good work and thank you….GO VOLS!

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

That 2015 game still pisses me off.

If you think about it Butch should have had a 3 game winning streak against UF.

 

[vegasvolfan]

Florida vs. Tennessee - Game Summary - September 24, 2022 - ESPN

I am pretty sure that's the highest ever against them, by a wide margin. I get that it's just a computer, but look at the numbers in that link.

1. We score twice as much as they do.
2. We allow slightly more than half as many points as they do.
3. We have an above average rush attack, they are 113th in the country in run defense.


The grain of salt is that we have played a much easier schedule, both Ball State and Akron are just putrid teams....but at the same time UF only has two wins because both Utah and USF self-destructed at the end of the respective games.

I know the history of this series, I know all about the "mental hangups", etc....

But THIS Vol is very confident that we win comfortably, and may just beat the brakes off of them.

Heupel is only 15 games in, but seems to do a good job of having the team approach every game the same way.

We will see! I am really looking forward to it. I honestly can't recall the last time I said that, maybe 2015 or 2016, but I am confident we win.

3 games is a small sample size.