East Tennessee Weather

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#7,101
#7,101
Major updates:

1. There's now an Enhanced Risk for most areas of East TN (mountains and southeastern TN are still in the slight risk) today. There's now a possibility that we could see a derecho move in Monday night into Tuesday morning. Primary threat will be widespread damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH.

2. Below is an excerpt from the day 2 outlook (Tuesday) issued by the NWS SPC. I bolded some key threats that are possible:

..CNTRL AND ERN KY AND TN INTO FAR WRN VA...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF AN
MCS...TO BE ONGOING EARLY TUE ACROSS NERN KY...SRN OH...AND WV.
GIVEN A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...STORMS MAY PERSIST IN THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH SOME BACK-BUILDING ACROSS ERN KY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
TN AFTER 18Z. BY THIS TIME...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WITH MID 70S F DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT....ALL BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL. A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS A
RESULT OF A LIKELY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...CONDITIONALLY INCREASING THE
TORNADO THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO GIVEN A SSEWD STORM MOTION NEAR THE ZONE OF ENHANCED
SRH. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS NRN AL/GA BY EVENING. THE
GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN KY AND TN.
Click to expand...
 
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#7,102
#7,102
Small update:

We are still under an enhanced risk today, but the 10%+ significant wind area has shifted west and north of our area. No changes to Tuesday's outlook as of now, but I'll give an update on tomorrow around 1:30 PM.
 
#7,103
#7,103
Also, the NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement for all of East TN today and tomorrow.

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TUESDAY...

AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF
60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DEPENDING ON HOW TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY EVOLVES...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...A
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL
EXIST WITH THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALONG
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS...WITH A STRONG TORNADO
POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD ESPECIALLY PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION...AND HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE ANY WATCHES AND
WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED!
Click to expand...

When they mention a Strong tornado, they are talking about a Tornado rated EF-2 or higher is possible.
 
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#7,106
#7,106
That zone of low-level sheer due to outflow boundaries is worth noting. That's probably where rotating storms will pop up in this scenario.

The current line that is well to our north has storms that are very tall. Easily tall enough to tap jet stream energy and pull it to the ground.
 
#7,107
#7,107
FalcoVol said:
That zone of low-level sheer due to outflow boundaries is worth noting. That's probably where rotating storms will pop up in this scenario.

The current line that is well to our north has storms that are very tall. Easily tall enough to tap jet stream energy and pull it to the ground.
Click to expand...

I know it's not a Derecho right now, but it was last night when it was in the Minnesota/Wisconsin area.
 
#7,108
#7,108
Something else worth noting is that dew points are in the low to mid 70s. It's definitely moist enough for really bad storms.
 
#7,109
#7,109
Vol knight said:
I know it's not a Derecho right now, but it was last night when it was in the Minnesota/Wisconsin area.
Click to expand...

Right now it's still somewhat connected to the main system, although being strung out due to the northwest flow in the jet stream. Might see a MCS or a Derecho later in the day from what develops along the tail or outflow of the current squall line.
 
#7,110
#7,110
Also, I don't really root for severe weather too much, especially with all the cleanup I had to do last year. That said, if you look at the national infrared radar and water vapor loop it is quite impressive. You can easily see the jet stream energy diving toward us from the NW.

Pretty neat.

Satellite Images
 
#7,111
#7,111
FalcoVol said:
Also, I don't really root for severe weather too much, especially with all the cleanup I had to do last year. That said, if you look at the national infrared radar and water vapor loop it is quite impressive. You can easily see the jet stream energy diving toward us from the NW.

Pretty neat.

Satellite Images
Click to expand...

Wow, that is neat.
 
#7,113
#7,113
DarthVisor said:
Are we talking 2011-2012 bad as far as the strength and potential of these storms?
Click to expand...

Tornado wise? Probably not. There's a chance for a few, but the 2011 storm was a bigger Tornado threat.

Hail wise? Maybe in some areas, but not everywhere.

Wind wise? Yeah.
 
#7,114
#7,114
Vol knight said:
Tornado wise? Probably not. There's a chance for a few, but the 2011 storm was a bigger Tornado threat.

Hail wise? Maybe in some areas, but not everywhere.

Wind wise? Yeah.
Click to expand...

Just wondering this --- why ? the vast difference with the NOAA site and the Weather Channel site ?
 
#7,116
#7,116
I know it's been said, but you guys do a fantastic job with the weather discussion.

Honestly, I do appreciate it. I feel like you guys do a pretty good job aggregating info and explaining it for those of us with only a mild understanding of weather.
 
#7,117
#7,117
WallyBalls said:
I know it's been said, but you guys do a fantastic job with the weather discussion.

Honestly, I do appreciate it. I feel like you guys do a pretty good job aggregating info and explaining it for those of us with only a mild understanding of weather.
Click to expand...

Thank you. :hi:
 
#7,120
#7,120
Now, if you could just master weather control.. I feel like we live on Mercury now.
 
#7,124
#7,124
Update:

It looks like we could see a derecho move in tonight.

...IND/OH/KY/TN...
A LARGE BOWING MCS IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
IND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
MIDDLE/EASTERN TN. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT AHEAD
OF THE STORMS...ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. PRESENT
CONDITIONS SUGGEST STORMS MAY INTENSIFY INTO A LONG-LIVED AND
DAMAGING BOW ECHO WITH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
/DERECHO/.
Click to expand...
 
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#7,125
#7,125
apevol said:
Now, if you could just master weather control.. I feel like we live on Mercury now.
Click to expand...

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