Dooley vs. History

#1
First&Tenn

First&Tenn

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#1
I was a wait-and-see fan for the last two years, and I said repeatedly that we didn't have enough data to judge Dooley. After this years UF game, I decided to take some time to do some research. I wanted to find out what the history of the SEC said about Dooley's chances of future success, because (as the old saying goes) if we don't learn from history we are doomed to repeat it.

I went back and compiled the records for every coach that has won an SEC title since the beginning of the championship game in 1992. That gives us 20 years of data. For each coach, I examined their first three years at the program where they won the title. I compiled win/loss statistics along with their wins and losses over Top 25 opponents. I wanted to get a baseline of performance for a coach capable of winning the SEC title.

Here are the numbers:

Stallings (Bama)
  • Year 1: 7-5
  • Year 2: 11-1
  • Year 3: 13-0
  • 3 Year Total: 31-6
  • Win %: 83.78%
  • vs Top 25: 9-2
  • % vs Top 25: 81.82%

Spurrier (UF)
  • Year 1: 9-2
  • Year 2: 10-2
  • Year 3: 9-4
  • 3 Year Total: 28-8
  • Win %: 77.78%
  • vs Top 25: 8-8
  • % vs Top 25: 50.00%

Fulmer (UT)(Beginning with first full year)
  • Year 1: 10-2 (Tie with #2 Bama was forfeited and counted here as a win)
  • Year 2: 8-4
  • Year 3: 11-1
  • 3 Year Total: 29-7
  • Win %: 80.56%
  • vs Top 25: 9-6
  • % vs Top 25: 60.00%

Dubose (Bama)
  • Year 1: 4-7
  • Year 2: 7-5
  • Year 3: 10-3
  • 3 Year Total: 21-15
  • Win %: 58.33%
  • vs Top 25: 5-8
  • % vs Top 25: 38.46%

Saban (LSU)
  • Year 1: 8-4
  • Year 2: 10-3
  • Year 3: 8-5
  • 3 Year Total: 26-12
  • Win %: 68.42%
  • vs Top 25: 7-7
  • % vs Top 25: 50.00%

Richt (UGA)
  • Year 1: 8-4
  • Year 2: 13-1
  • Year 3: 11-3
  • 3 Year Total: 32-8
  • Win %: 80.00%
  • vs Top 25: 10-7
  • % vs Top 25: 58.82%

Tuberville (Auburn)
  • Year 1: 5-6
  • Year 2: 9-4
  • Year 3: 7-5
  • 3 Year Total: 21-15
  • Win %: 58.33%
  • vs Top 25: 5-8
  • % vs Top 25: 38.46%

Meyer (UF)
  • Year 1: 9-3
  • Year 2: 13-1
  • Year 3: 9-4
  • 3 Year Total: 31-8
  • Win %: 79.49%
  • vs Top 25: 11-5
  • % vs Top 25: 68.75%

Miles (LSU)
  • Year 1: 11-2
  • Year 2: 11-2
  • Year 3: 12-2
  • 3 Year Total: 34-6
  • Win %: 85.00%
  • vs Top 25: 15-5
  • % vs Top 25: 75.00%

Saban (Bama)
  • Year 1: 7-6
  • Year 2: 12-2
  • Year 3: 14-0
  • 3 Year Total: 33-8
  • Win %: 80.49%
  • vs Top 25: 11-5
  • % vs Top 25: 68.75%

Chizik (Auburn)
  • Year 1: 8-5
  • Year 2: 14-0
  • Year 3: 8-5
  • 3 Year Total: 30-10
  • Win %: 75.00%
  • vs Top 25: 9-6
  • % vs Top 25: 60.00%

And for the sake of comparison:

Dooley (UT)
  • Year 1: 6-7
  • Year 2: 5-7
  • Year 3: 3-2 (So Far)
  • Total (So Far): 14-16
  • Win %: 46.67%
  • vs Top 25: 0-12
  • % vs Top 25: 0.00%

Also for comparison, I put together a best case scenario for Dooley this year. This scenario has UT winning every possible game left on the schedule (including the SEC title game and a bowl game over a ranked opponent) to get to 12-2.

Dooley (Best Case Scenario)
  • Year 1: 6-7
  • Year 2: 5-7
  • Year 3: 12-2
  • 3 Year Total: 23-16
  • Win %: 58.97%
  • vs Top 25: 5-12
  • % vs Top 25: 29.41%

Takeaways:

1. Coaches who win the SEC title very rarely have losing seasons. Only Dubose and Tuberville had any losing seasons, and in both cases only in their first year.

2. Coaches who win the SEC title have good records against the top 25. Dubose and Tuberville are the only two to post an average below .500.

3. The Dubose case was unique and interesting. Dubose started right after the Stallings era ended. Bama had just been punished with severe NCAA sanctions that caused them to lose 26 scholarships over a 3 year period and a 2 year bowl ban (Started as a 3 year ban, but was later reduced). The NCAA considered the death penalty for the program. I think it is fair to argue that Dubose had a situation as difficult or more so than Dooley's

4. Les Miles has the best overall win % in the first 3 years. It can be argued that he was winning with Saban's players, but it is still an impressive feat.

5. Even in a best case scenario for Dooley, his win % is low and his % vs the Top 25 would be the lowest in history. I have no doubt that Dooley will get a raise and extension if this team wins 12 games, an SEC title, and a major bowl game, but he still looks bad in comparison to the others.

6. Dooley already has more losses in his first 3 years than any coach that has won an SEC title in the title game era.

History is not always the best indicator of the future, but it can be revealing. Dooley did have several issues to face when he accepted the UT job, but it does not look like he will be the one to take the program back to the championship level.

Extra Historical Fact: 2010 & 2011 are the first back-to-back losing seasons for UT since 1910 & 1911.
 

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#2
#2
excellent post!

It's great to talk statistics rather than intangibles.

Of course, I know the Dooley-lovers will come in with "well Johnny Majors was terrible at UT for 5 years before he did anything" or "Saban had a tough 3 years at a second tier Big Ten school" or whatever their excuse is today, but it's nice to talk about statistics over the last 20 years and more relevant to the current football landscape.
 
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#6
#6
Great post.

Statistics need to be used with a bit of caution, however, and with some context. How many of those guys started coaching in the SEC when the SEC was as dominant as now? The current polls have 4 of the top 6 teams in the country from the SEC, and the SEC is in an unprecedented run of consecutive national championships. How many of those coaches played an SEC opponent that won a national championship?
 
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#7
#7
First&Tenn doing the work! Good analysis. First I have seen on VN in a long time.

Dools only hope is to beat Bama and USCe. Missy State is not enough. These facts are not lost on the UTAD and major boosters.
 
#8
#8
Unfortunately, cold statistics cannot measure everything, and intangibles are important. If we consider UT alone, the team Majors left for Fulmer was miles ahead of the one the one he inherited. Similarly, Dooley had so few players that he had to play true freshmen. The roster was so short he couldn't even substitute. Considering the quality of Dooley's first team, a much better comparison would be with how long it has taken coaches to win at Vandy, KY, and Ole Miss.

I am neither a Dooley lover or hater. I have fired quite a few people, and emotions played no part in the decisions.
 
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#11
#11
Great information. I think it points to what most fans looking at things going toward the future have already said. Derek Dooley is not going to all a sudden become a good football coach. Most any coach who has been successful in the SEC has done it somewhere else first. If you lose against the smaller schools, you will get beat on vs SEC schools. The sad part is the Dooley supporters are hoping for anything positive to maybe buy the guy another year. You would think a chance at winning would be worth more than letting the guy stick around and continue finding ways to get beat. A win over MSU will mean very little IMO. They are ranked because they have not played anyone yet. I still think they find a way to beat this UT team. Start a coaching search, it would equal better days ahead.
 
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#13
#13
First&Tenn said:
I was a wait-and-see fan for the last two years, and I said repeatedly that we didn't have enough data to judge Dooley. After this years UF game, I decided to take some time to do some research. I wanted to find out what the history of the SEC said about Dooley's chances of future success, because (as the old saying goes) if we don't learn from history we are doomed to repeat it.

I went back and compiled the records for every coach that has won an SEC title since the beginning of the championship game in 1992. That gives us 20 years of data. For each coach, I examined their first three years at the program where they won the title. I compiled win/loss statistics along with their wins and losses over Top 25 opponents. I wanted to get a baseline of performance for a coach capable of winning the SEC title.

Here are the numbers:

Stallings (Bama)
  • Year 1: 7-5
  • Year 2: 11-1
  • Year 3: 13-0
  • 3 Year Total: 31-6
  • Win %: 83.78%
  • vs Top 25: 9-2
  • % vs Top 25: 81.82%

Spurrier (UF)
  • Year 1: 9-2
  • Year 2: 10-2
  • Year 3: 9-4
  • 3 Year Total: 28-8
  • Win %: 77.78%
  • vs Top 25: 8-8
  • % vs Top 25: 50.00%

Fulmer (UT)(Beginning with first full year)
  • Year 1: 10-2 (Tie with #2 Bama was forfeited and counted here as a win)
  • Year 2: 8-4
  • Year 3: 11-1
  • 3 Year Total: 29-7
  • Win %: 80.56%
  • vs Top 25: 9-6
  • % vs Top 25: 60.00%

Dubose (Bama)
  • Year 1: 4-7
  • Year 2: 7-5
  • Year 3: 10-3
  • 3 Year Total: 21-15
  • Win %: 58.33%
  • vs Top 25: 5-8
  • % vs Top 25: 38.46%

Saban (LSU)
  • Year 1: 8-4
  • Year 2: 10-3
  • Year 3: 8-5
  • 3 Year Total: 26-12
  • Win %: 68.42%
  • vs Top 25: 7-7
  • % vs Top 25: 50.00%

Richt (UGA)
  • Year 1: 8-4
  • Year 2: 13-1
  • Year 3: 11-3
  • 3 Year Total: 32-8
  • Win %: 80.00%
  • vs Top 25: 10-7
  • % vs Top 25: 58.82%

Tuberville (Auburn)
  • Year 1: 5-6
  • Year 2: 9-4
  • Year 3: 7-5
  • 3 Year Total: 21-15
  • Win %: 58.33%
  • vs Top 25: 5-8
  • % vs Top 25: 38.46%

Meyer (UF)
  • Year 1: 9-3
  • Year 2: 13-1
  • Year 3: 9-4
  • 3 Year Total: 31-8
  • Win %: 79.49%
  • vs Top 25: 11-5
  • % vs Top 25: 68.75%

Miles (LSU)
  • Year 1: 11-2
  • Year 2: 11-2
  • Year 3: 12-2
  • 3 Year Total: 34-6
  • Win %: 85.00%
  • vs Top 25: 15-5
  • % vs Top 25: 75.00%

Saban (Bama)
  • Year 1: 7-6
  • Year 2: 12-2
  • Year 3: 14-0
  • 3 Year Total: 33-8
  • Win %: 80.49%
  • vs Top 25: 11-5
  • % vs Top 25: 68.75%

Chizik (Auburn)
  • Year 1: 8-5
  • Year 2: 14-0
  • Year 3: 8-5
  • 3 Year Total: 30-10
  • Win %: 75.00%
  • vs Top 25: 9-6
  • % vs Top 25: 60.00%

And for the sake of comparison:

Dooley (UT)
  • Year 1: 6-7
  • Year 2: 5-7
  • Year 3: 3-2 (So Far)
  • Total (So Far): 14-16
  • Win %: 46.67%
  • vs Top 25: 0-12
  • % vs Top 25: 0.00%

Also for comparison, I put together a best case scenario for Dooley this year. This scenario has UT winning every possible game left on the schedule (including the SEC title game and a bowl game over a ranked opponent) to get to 12-2.

Dooley (Best Case Scenario)
  • Year 1: 6-7
  • Year 2: 5-7
  • Year 3: 12-2
  • 3 Year Total: 23-16
  • Win %: 58.97%
  • vs Top 25: 5-12
  • % vs Top 25: 29.41%

Takeaways:

1. Coaches who win the SEC title very rarely have losing seasons. Only Dubose and Tuberville had any losing seasons, and in both cases only in their first year.

2. Coaches who win the SEC title have good records against the top 25. Dubose and Tuberville are the only two to post an average below .500.

3. The Dubose case was unique and interesting. Dubose started right after the Stallings era ended. Bama had just been punished with severe NCAA sanctions that caused them to lose 26 scholarships over a 3 year period and a 2 year bowl ban (Started as a 3 year ban, but was later reduced). The NCAA considered the death penalty for the program. I think it is fair to argue that Dubose had a situation as difficult or more so than Dooley's

4. Les Miles has the best overall win % in the first 3 years. It can be argued that he was winning with Saban's players, but it is still an impressive feat.

5. Even in a best case scenario for Dooley, his win % is low and his % vs the Top 25 would be the lowest in history. I have no doubt that Dooley will get a raise and extension if this team wins 12 games, an SEC title, and a major bowl game, but he still looks bad in comparison to the others.

6. Dooley already has more losses in his first 3 years than any coach that has won an SEC title in the title game era.

History is not always the best indicator of the future, but it can be revealing. Dooley did have several issues to face when he accepted the UT job, but it does not look like he will be the one to take the program back to the championship level.

Extra Historical Fact: 2010 & 2011 are the first back-to-back losing seasons for UT since 1910 & 1911.
Click to expand...



My conclusion after reading this is that it certainly DOESN'T take 5 years to rebuild.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
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#16
#16
Bluto said:
Look at the Head Ball Coach while at South Carolina.
Click to expand...

Apples and oranges . SC worst program in the SEC pretty much, no tradition, horrible facilities and some of the worst recruiting classes in the SEC prior to SS. UT best facilities, stadium, recruiting budget , good recruiting classes inherited , top ten all time program. SS brought a nothing program to relevance. DD is running a top ten program into the ground.
 
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#17
#17
Good work, but I caution. One set of numbers does not a whole story tell. Dooley will tell his own story this year and next (maybe). But at least it's discussion fodder above the average.
 
#20
#20
k-town_king said:
Apples and oranges . SC worst program in the SEC pretty much, no tradition, horrible facilities and some of the worst recruiting classes in the SEC prior to SS. UT best facilities, stadium, recruiting budget , good recruiting classes inherited , top ten all time program. SS brought a nothing program to relevance. DD is running a top ten program into the ground.
Click to expand...

For reals?
 
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#22
#22
k-town_king said:
Apples and oranges . SC worst program in the SEC pretty much, no tradition, horrible facilities and some of the worst recruiting classes in the SEC prior to SS. UT best facilities, stadium, recruiting budget , good recruiting classes inherited , top ten all time program. SS brought a nothing program to relevance. DD is running a top ten program into the ground.
Click to expand...

If you think Dooley inherited good players then your being ignorant on purpose and no one can help you.

Great research OP! I honestly think Dooleys situation he walked into was 10 times worse than any of the afore mentioned guys, but it is fair to look and compare.
 
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#23
#23
Nice Job!! Best thread I've seen. I never realized a lot of u'r points until someone put it out there for us to see.
 
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