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The 2014-2015 Tennessee basketball season is over. Honestly, it might be the weirdest season since I've been following Tennessee basketball in 2004. What started as one of the most overachieving teams in the country ended badly, as the team finished 4-11. The Vols did not finish over .500 for the first time since the 2004-2005 season, which honestly is impressive for Tennessee. This is a good basketball program and even though there has been a lot of turmoil the last five years, the fact that Tennessee has not experienced a losing season in ten years is highly impressive. This is a very long post, so if you don't read all of it or just skim through it I understand.
This is under the assumption that Donnie Tyndall will be the coach next year and that the program will face minimal penalties. I do not know if that will happen, but for the purposes of this post we will go through this year not looking at the NCAA allegations. Also, even though the 2015 recruiting class is most likely not done, I'm considering his first recruiting class, the 2014 class, when talking about recruiting for this year. Also of quick note. I finally decided to get kenpom.com for the tournament and well, it's addicting. This is pretty heavily focused on advanced stats, but it's not complete analytics. I will also comment on what I've seen too. All stats are from kenpom.com. Let's do this.
1. How did the offense do?
In Tyndall's first two seasons at Southern Miss, they finished in the top 65 in adjusted offensive efficiency both years (adjusted offensive efficiency is slightly altered in how a team would do facing an average NCAA division one defense). Tennessee's offense actually did well in this department because they faced good defenses throughout the year. They finished 68th this year with an offensive efficiency of 107.4, which is really good considering the lack of talent and it being year one of Tyndall's system. However, the worrisome number is 48.2%, which is Tennessee's effective field goal percentage. That ends up being the 207th best in the country, and if you look at Tyndall's overall eFG% for his teams, it's not a pretty sight. Tyndall's teams have only finished in the top 50 once in eFG% since he became a head coach in 2006.
So how does Tyndall have successful offenses? He relies on offensive rebounding as much as anyone and if you watched Tennessee play this year, you saw that. They crash the boards and hustle for loose balls. Tennessee finished with an offensive rebounding percentage of 38%, which was 20th in the country. Honestly, it is not unlike Cuonzo Martin's teams. Those teams did not shoot well, but crashed the offensive glass to keep possessions alive. I'm fairly confident that Tyndall will never have a Wisconsin or Notre Dame type offense with beautiful ball movement and shooting, but I thought considering everything this year Tyndall's club did a nice job on the offensive end. There needs to be better ball movement and I think the spacing needs to improve on offensive sets, but I like his sets and LOVE his inbound plays to get easy buckets and think his high-low offense can work.
2. How did his first recruiting class shape up
Let's first get transfers out of the way, the two being Dominic Woodson and Ian Chiles. It wasn't pretty. Both were eligible to play immediately, but Chiles never could get healthy which is a shame. I'm not sure he would have started if he was 100%, but I think he could have gotten fifteen minutes per game as the backup point guard and defensive guard that could have helped this team out. Woodson, a consensus four star, top 100 player, just doesn't have a good attitude to succeed. I don't blame Tyndall for trying however. It didn't hurt Tennessee as they still get to use his scholarship this year.
On to his recruiting class. Starting with the bigs, I like Tariq Owens and Jabari McGhee because they both have defined roles. Owens is a very good shot blocker because of his length and quickness jumping. Even if Owens never pans out as a legitimate starter he can still make an impact as a bench defender. McGhee broke his foot unfortunately which really hurt Tennessee in the front court because McGhee can really rebound. He had an 18.5 offensive rebound percentage when he played and he can finish around the rim. He's the perfect power forward for Tennessee and Donnie Tyndall. I think he starts next year. I'm not a big fan of Willie Carmichael because he doesn't have a high basketball IQ nor does anything particulary well, but he does have athleticism and length.
Getting to the guard and wing players, I really like Devon Baulkman. If it wasn't for his injured shoulder, Baulkman would have had an even better season. He's a perfect 15-20 minute per game player for an SEC team. He cannot create for himself but is a very solid shooter and decent defender that can create turnovers. Kevin Punter isn't a favorite of mine and because of the lack of depth he was overexposed on Tennessee this year, but he can be a streaky shooter and can get steals with his length. I think he's better in a limited role. Detrick Mostella was disappointing. He did not shoot or create like Tennessee thought he could this year and he simply isn't a good defender to make an impact. He's young and talented, but has a lot of work to do.
Considering the timing of the hire, I'm not sure Tyndall could do much else. Getting a JUCO or grad transfer big would have really helped Tennessee in my opinion but it's a hard act to balance winning now and building for the future. Would you rather have a grad transfer that could have helped Tennessee win a couple extra games or a freshman big like Willie Carmichael? I think there are four quality players from this recruiting class that can make an impact at Tennessee but not any legitimate future All-SEC players except one in Jabari McGhee. That to me is a nice coup however and I like what I saw. His 2015 recruiting class is a different story but that is for next year.
3. How did the defense do?
Tyndall's defenses are not exactly impactful. He's never had a top 50 defensive efficiency team and this year it was bad. Tennessee finished 142nd in adjusted defensive efficiency with a 101.1 number and also struggled rebounding too, where they finished 278th in the country. His non-Kenneth Faried teams have never finished in the top 70 in defensive rebounding percentage. This year however I'm going to give his team a pass on the rebounding end because of the lack of size of this team and Jabari McGhee's injury. However, with the zone defense, you are going to have a lot of holes when it comes to defensive rebounding. If Tennessee creates turnovers like Tyndall teams usually do, that's not as big of a deal.
Let's get to the three point defense. It's been a controversial topic on VolNation. Obviously, Tyndall likes to pack in the zone and let teams shoot three's. Looking at the numbers, he needs to adjust this. Tennessee allowed teams to shoot 37.1% from three this year, which was 297th in the country. Tyndall teams have only finished in the top 150 once in defensive three point percentage. If Donnie Tyndall didn't allow them as much, this wouldn't be a big problem but teams shoot them against Tyndall led teams. Teams shot three pointers 43.1% of the time against the Vols this year, which was second to last in the country. In fact, Tyndall teams has finished in the bottom 50 in three pointers allowed for the last five years. However, Donnie Tyndall teams force turnovers as well as anyone in the country. They've finished in the top 20 four straight years in turnover percentage and this is a positive toward his zones and the number of defenses he employs to show different traps. His teams are very aggressive in passing lanes which usually works (although it can hurt Tennessee on rotations) and this is very important for a coach that values possessions like Donnie Tyndall.
I understand these numbers were more skewed toward the negative this year because of the lack of size at Tennessee. However, playing in a power five conference I'm not sure this can work consistently. He has to adjust his defense. Having players like Tariq Owens and Willie Carmichael guard corner three' pointer is just a bad idea. The defensive rotations were bad during SEC play and too many times players ball watched instead of tracking their man. I believe that this is the main reason Tennessee struggled in the second half. Coaching staffs had more film on the zone and found the weak spots (like the corner three) and exploited them. I'm not a fan of zone defenses in general. This is just a personal preference. But when you look at the fact Tyndall has never had a top 50 adjusted defensive efficiency and considering how many times Tennessee got burned on defense, he either must have top ten recruiting classes or adjust his defense. Or both.
4. What kind of style did Donnie Tyndall employ and what style do his teams usually have?
I'm not sure why, but a decent amount of Tennessee fans thought that Tyndall had a more uptempo style than the previous coach. That is simply not true. Tyndall's teams have finished below the top 150 in pace every year he's been a head coach. He's always had plodding teams. Now, because offensive rebounds do not count as new possessions, these numbers are a little skewed because his teams are so good at offensive rebounding. But just watching them it was obvious Donnie Tyndall wants to play a half-court game to set up his zone defenses and traps to force turnovers. He believes that in a half-court games, he can create more turnovers with less opportunities for thee other team to score. Offensively, he doesn't want to waste those turnovers so they play a slower pace.
Tyndall's offense favors inside-out play but he needs shooters to complement this style in the SEC. During his two years at USM, Tyndall's teams shot the three ball pretty well, which led to good offenses. I would be really curious to see how the offense works with a true low post scorer and I think that would help his offense. As I said before, I like the sets. He just needs the players and a true point guard.
Do I think this is a style that can work at Tennessee? Yes assuming he has the players to pull it off. I don't like his defensive philosophy and I honestly believe it's not going to lead to incredibly successful teams at Tennessee without some sort of change. I like the turnovers and I love the crashing of the offensive glass to keep possessions alive. If you are not going to be an uptempo team, then crashing the offensive glass is a great idea, especially if you have the horses to do that. I think Tyndall will push the tempo more with more depth and I think you will see more full court pressing in the next couple of years. It will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes for 2015-2016.
5. What grade would you give Donnie Tyndall at Tennessee?
Here is my biggest conumdrum with grading the season. If Tennessee's first seventeen games went something like 8-7/9-6 and finished at 16-16, I would probably give him a higher grade. That means improvements were made throughout the season. However, it leaves a sour taste in my mouth seeing Tennessee go 4-11 in the last fifteen games. Do I believe that a part of that had to do with tired legs since Tennessee had to play guys a lot of minutes with the lack of depth? Yes I think it played a part. However, I believe it had more to do with teams getting more film on Tennessee's defense and exposing it. The lack of size killed Tennessee. If you have to play Derek Reese at center, you are probably going to have a bad time. This was probably the worst Tennessee roster since the Kevin O'Neill days when you consider the injuries too.
Some of the home losses were inexplicable. I do not like the incredible stubbornness Donnie Tyndall had on defense. I think Tyndall should have embraced the three ball more and relied more on a kick and drive game by pushing the basketball with guys like Hubbs, Punter, and Baulkman on the wings, and using good drivers in Richardson and Moore, but I think you will see that more next year. I loved the fact these guys never quit. I liked the development that Hubbs, Moore, and Richardson took. In a podcast I did in the preseason, I said 17-18 wins and felt a overall winning season would be a good year for Tennessee. Tyndall did not accomplish that, but I don't think it was a failure. The goal every year should be an NCAA tournament bid for Tennessee, so I can't give him an A or B, but I'm willing to give him a solid C for an overall average year.
This is under the assumption that Donnie Tyndall will be the coach next year and that the program will face minimal penalties. I do not know if that will happen, but for the purposes of this post we will go through this year not looking at the NCAA allegations. Also, even though the 2015 recruiting class is most likely not done, I'm considering his first recruiting class, the 2014 class, when talking about recruiting for this year. Also of quick note. I finally decided to get kenpom.com for the tournament and well, it's addicting. This is pretty heavily focused on advanced stats, but it's not complete analytics. I will also comment on what I've seen too. All stats are from kenpom.com. Let's do this.
1. How did the offense do?
In Tyndall's first two seasons at Southern Miss, they finished in the top 65 in adjusted offensive efficiency both years (adjusted offensive efficiency is slightly altered in how a team would do facing an average NCAA division one defense). Tennessee's offense actually did well in this department because they faced good defenses throughout the year. They finished 68th this year with an offensive efficiency of 107.4, which is really good considering the lack of talent and it being year one of Tyndall's system. However, the worrisome number is 48.2%, which is Tennessee's effective field goal percentage. That ends up being the 207th best in the country, and if you look at Tyndall's overall eFG% for his teams, it's not a pretty sight. Tyndall's teams have only finished in the top 50 once in eFG% since he became a head coach in 2006.
So how does Tyndall have successful offenses? He relies on offensive rebounding as much as anyone and if you watched Tennessee play this year, you saw that. They crash the boards and hustle for loose balls. Tennessee finished with an offensive rebounding percentage of 38%, which was 20th in the country. Honestly, it is not unlike Cuonzo Martin's teams. Those teams did not shoot well, but crashed the offensive glass to keep possessions alive. I'm fairly confident that Tyndall will never have a Wisconsin or Notre Dame type offense with beautiful ball movement and shooting, but I thought considering everything this year Tyndall's club did a nice job on the offensive end. There needs to be better ball movement and I think the spacing needs to improve on offensive sets, but I like his sets and LOVE his inbound plays to get easy buckets and think his high-low offense can work.
2. How did his first recruiting class shape up
Let's first get transfers out of the way, the two being Dominic Woodson and Ian Chiles. It wasn't pretty. Both were eligible to play immediately, but Chiles never could get healthy which is a shame. I'm not sure he would have started if he was 100%, but I think he could have gotten fifteen minutes per game as the backup point guard and defensive guard that could have helped this team out. Woodson, a consensus four star, top 100 player, just doesn't have a good attitude to succeed. I don't blame Tyndall for trying however. It didn't hurt Tennessee as they still get to use his scholarship this year.
On to his recruiting class. Starting with the bigs, I like Tariq Owens and Jabari McGhee because they both have defined roles. Owens is a very good shot blocker because of his length and quickness jumping. Even if Owens never pans out as a legitimate starter he can still make an impact as a bench defender. McGhee broke his foot unfortunately which really hurt Tennessee in the front court because McGhee can really rebound. He had an 18.5 offensive rebound percentage when he played and he can finish around the rim. He's the perfect power forward for Tennessee and Donnie Tyndall. I think he starts next year. I'm not a big fan of Willie Carmichael because he doesn't have a high basketball IQ nor does anything particulary well, but he does have athleticism and length.
Getting to the guard and wing players, I really like Devon Baulkman. If it wasn't for his injured shoulder, Baulkman would have had an even better season. He's a perfect 15-20 minute per game player for an SEC team. He cannot create for himself but is a very solid shooter and decent defender that can create turnovers. Kevin Punter isn't a favorite of mine and because of the lack of depth he was overexposed on Tennessee this year, but he can be a streaky shooter and can get steals with his length. I think he's better in a limited role. Detrick Mostella was disappointing. He did not shoot or create like Tennessee thought he could this year and he simply isn't a good defender to make an impact. He's young and talented, but has a lot of work to do.
Considering the timing of the hire, I'm not sure Tyndall could do much else. Getting a JUCO or grad transfer big would have really helped Tennessee in my opinion but it's a hard act to balance winning now and building for the future. Would you rather have a grad transfer that could have helped Tennessee win a couple extra games or a freshman big like Willie Carmichael? I think there are four quality players from this recruiting class that can make an impact at Tennessee but not any legitimate future All-SEC players except one in Jabari McGhee. That to me is a nice coup however and I like what I saw. His 2015 recruiting class is a different story but that is for next year.
3. How did the defense do?
Tyndall's defenses are not exactly impactful. He's never had a top 50 defensive efficiency team and this year it was bad. Tennessee finished 142nd in adjusted defensive efficiency with a 101.1 number and also struggled rebounding too, where they finished 278th in the country. His non-Kenneth Faried teams have never finished in the top 70 in defensive rebounding percentage. This year however I'm going to give his team a pass on the rebounding end because of the lack of size of this team and Jabari McGhee's injury. However, with the zone defense, you are going to have a lot of holes when it comes to defensive rebounding. If Tennessee creates turnovers like Tyndall teams usually do, that's not as big of a deal.
Let's get to the three point defense. It's been a controversial topic on VolNation. Obviously, Tyndall likes to pack in the zone and let teams shoot three's. Looking at the numbers, he needs to adjust this. Tennessee allowed teams to shoot 37.1% from three this year, which was 297th in the country. Tyndall teams have only finished in the top 150 once in defensive three point percentage. If Donnie Tyndall didn't allow them as much, this wouldn't be a big problem but teams shoot them against Tyndall led teams. Teams shot three pointers 43.1% of the time against the Vols this year, which was second to last in the country. In fact, Tyndall teams has finished in the bottom 50 in three pointers allowed for the last five years. However, Donnie Tyndall teams force turnovers as well as anyone in the country. They've finished in the top 20 four straight years in turnover percentage and this is a positive toward his zones and the number of defenses he employs to show different traps. His teams are very aggressive in passing lanes which usually works (although it can hurt Tennessee on rotations) and this is very important for a coach that values possessions like Donnie Tyndall.
I understand these numbers were more skewed toward the negative this year because of the lack of size at Tennessee. However, playing in a power five conference I'm not sure this can work consistently. He has to adjust his defense. Having players like Tariq Owens and Willie Carmichael guard corner three' pointer is just a bad idea. The defensive rotations were bad during SEC play and too many times players ball watched instead of tracking their man. I believe that this is the main reason Tennessee struggled in the second half. Coaching staffs had more film on the zone and found the weak spots (like the corner three) and exploited them. I'm not a fan of zone defenses in general. This is just a personal preference. But when you look at the fact Tyndall has never had a top 50 adjusted defensive efficiency and considering how many times Tennessee got burned on defense, he either must have top ten recruiting classes or adjust his defense. Or both.
4. What kind of style did Donnie Tyndall employ and what style do his teams usually have?
I'm not sure why, but a decent amount of Tennessee fans thought that Tyndall had a more uptempo style than the previous coach. That is simply not true. Tyndall's teams have finished below the top 150 in pace every year he's been a head coach. He's always had plodding teams. Now, because offensive rebounds do not count as new possessions, these numbers are a little skewed because his teams are so good at offensive rebounding. But just watching them it was obvious Donnie Tyndall wants to play a half-court game to set up his zone defenses and traps to force turnovers. He believes that in a half-court games, he can create more turnovers with less opportunities for thee other team to score. Offensively, he doesn't want to waste those turnovers so they play a slower pace.
Tyndall's offense favors inside-out play but he needs shooters to complement this style in the SEC. During his two years at USM, Tyndall's teams shot the three ball pretty well, which led to good offenses. I would be really curious to see how the offense works with a true low post scorer and I think that would help his offense. As I said before, I like the sets. He just needs the players and a true point guard.
Do I think this is a style that can work at Tennessee? Yes assuming he has the players to pull it off. I don't like his defensive philosophy and I honestly believe it's not going to lead to incredibly successful teams at Tennessee without some sort of change. I like the turnovers and I love the crashing of the offensive glass to keep possessions alive. If you are not going to be an uptempo team, then crashing the offensive glass is a great idea, especially if you have the horses to do that. I think Tyndall will push the tempo more with more depth and I think you will see more full court pressing in the next couple of years. It will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes for 2015-2016.
5. What grade would you give Donnie Tyndall at Tennessee?
Here is my biggest conumdrum with grading the season. If Tennessee's first seventeen games went something like 8-7/9-6 and finished at 16-16, I would probably give him a higher grade. That means improvements were made throughout the season. However, it leaves a sour taste in my mouth seeing Tennessee go 4-11 in the last fifteen games. Do I believe that a part of that had to do with tired legs since Tennessee had to play guys a lot of minutes with the lack of depth? Yes I think it played a part. However, I believe it had more to do with teams getting more film on Tennessee's defense and exposing it. The lack of size killed Tennessee. If you have to play Derek Reese at center, you are probably going to have a bad time. This was probably the worst Tennessee roster since the Kevin O'Neill days when you consider the injuries too.
Some of the home losses were inexplicable. I do not like the incredible stubbornness Donnie Tyndall had on defense. I think Tyndall should have embraced the three ball more and relied more on a kick and drive game by pushing the basketball with guys like Hubbs, Punter, and Baulkman on the wings, and using good drivers in Richardson and Moore, but I think you will see that more next year. I loved the fact these guys never quit. I liked the development that Hubbs, Moore, and Richardson took. In a podcast I did in the preseason, I said 17-18 wins and felt a overall winning season would be a good year for Tennessee. Tyndall did not accomplish that, but I don't think it was a failure. The goal every year should be an NCAA tournament bid for Tennessee, so I can't give him an A or B, but I'm willing to give him a solid C for an overall average year.
