It's an interesting question, the Cutcliffe-Manning one.
David is 66 years old. When Arch graduates from high school, he'll be coming up on his 69th birthday.
Will David commit to staying another four years so Arch has stability? And can he guarantee a solid offensive line and protection package, so that Arch isn't at greater-than-normal risk of injury? If so, I think Duke gets a young gunslinger. The Cutcliffe-Manning ties are just that strong.
But if that doesn't work out for any reason, if David has a health issue he really needs to pay attention to, or is just ready to sit back on his porch for a change, or the Duke roster's big uglies don't look up to the job, Duke is out.
So then where?
Arch doesn't need a championship-winning program, a Bama or Clemson or Ohio State. In fact, landing in a QB room that's already full of other 5-stars complicates things unnecessarily. Not that Arch couldn't win the starting job, just that he might get stuck for a couple of years behind another fellow with a hot hand. Arch wants to be the starter certainly by the start of his sophomore year.
So he doesn't necessarily want a Top 5 program, but he does need a place where he can (1) develop his skill sets to the next level, and (2) display his talents on the national stage. The first one means a place with a QB whisperer style head coach and/or OC. The second one means, really, anything in Division I. It doesn't have to be an FBS program, though that helps. Stars can appear at places like Utah (Alex Smith), Delaware (Joe Flacco), or Eastern Illinois (Tony Romo). But, ideally, I'd think Arch would want to be at a Power 5 program. And family ties argue (mildly) in favor of the SEC. That last bit depends on whether Arch sees himself as a tradition-follower or a bit of a family rebel (Peyton was a bit of a rebel, Eli was a traditionalist).
That was a lot of words. And they don't really narrow the possibilities down very much. But they do say this: the door is not closed for Tennessee. We have two seasons to (a) get past all significant NCAA penalties, (b) become a winning program, winning enough to provide the stage, and (c) have our head coach and OC prove they're really good with QBs.
So if one of our lads lining up behind the center start lighting things up in 2021, and especially 2022, I think we've got as good a shot as anyone at Arch. Unless Duke and Cutcliffe are flexing for him. Then all bets are off.
Go Vols!