Do yall really believe in the Alabama Bump?

#26
#26
OGbabyaviVol said:
In other words, couple that with the recent information about how they rank prospects, and it is verified even more that they don’t have a clue what they’re doing.
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Yeah, pretty much
1vol8 said:
Not my point. I was pointing out that most of them have never played. Not that none of them did. Also I never meant to imply that none were professional. I think every service has a few that are.
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#30
#30
Here you go. Kid was unranked. Claimed an offer from Alabama and UGA, and gets bumped to a three star. The problem is... the kid doesn’t exist.

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unfrozencvmanvol said:
The data is out there, it's collectable, plenty of people have plenty of motivation to collect it, and yet I have never seen data that supports the idea that over any statistically significant period of time (or even one cycle), that recruits' rankings increase or decrease based on their commitment to any particular school. I'd like to see it if there is any, until then I consider it very much like Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster. We've had cell phone cameras for years and still no one has snapped a clear photo of either. I suspect someone has done their homework on this subject, and I suspect it doesn't support the conspiracy (which nearly every school's fanbase shares in some form by the way (247/Rivals/ESPN) hates my school, they love (X/Y/Z school) and rank their players higher, hell even Bama fans talk of persecution and a "Clemson bump", as hilarious as that is).

Again, if anybody has any data on this I'd love to look at it, I'm open minded. The truth is out there.
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#31
#31
We know for a fact that the recruiting services factor in offers as a very big part of their ratings. So when a program that has consistently been in the top 10 / making major bowl games / making the playoffs offers a kid, their rating goes up as a result.

It's not that the rating services are useless. It's that they are followers, not leaders.
 
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#32
#32
VaBornVol said:
Here you go. Kid was unranked. Claimed an offer from Alabama and UGA, and gets bumped to a three star. The problem is... the kid doesn’t exist.

Barstool Sports
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This kind of thing has happened before, and it's just evidence of human laziness, not systematic bias or conspiracy. I remember that kid about 10 years ago who "committed" to Cal over Oregon at a press conference and some of the recruiting gurus were talking about what a great pick up it was for Cal, and he didn't have an offer from either. The article doesn't say what other "offers" this 2019 fake recruit had, Alabama and Georgia is just who the article lists but there were more, Bama and UGA are the current headliners (in 1999 they'd have listed Florida and Tennessee) so that's who the reporter leads with.

In any event, this is one kid, the data on entire recruiting classes, offer dates, commitment dates, rank history going back years and years is out there at the finger tips of millions of people, and untold thousands with free time and plenty of motivation to expose this injustice. If this thing is real there's got to be spreadsheet after spreadsheet out there to support it, where is it?
 
#33
#33
Yeah, you’re going to need somebody that cares a whole lot more than I do to compile that information for you.

I guess I’m not naive enough to think it’s an isolated case. 247 is a Nashville based company owned by an Alabama alum, who claims to do their own independent evaluations. This kid was supposedly in Knoxville. If they’re bumping kids two hours away based on offer lists, it’s highly unlikely it’s an isolated instance
unfrozencvmanvol said:
This kind of thing has happened before, and it's just evidence of human laziness, not systematic bias or conspiracy. I remember that kid about 10 years ago who "committed" to Cal over Oregon at a press conference and some of the recruiting gurus were talking about what a great pick up it was for Cal, and he didn't have an offer from either. The article doesn't say what other "offers" this 2019 fake recruit had, Alabama and Georgia is just who the article lists but there were more, Bama and UGA are the current headliners (in 1999 they'd have listed Florida and Tennessee) so that's who the reporter leads with.

In any event, this is one kid, the data on entire recruiting classes, offer dates, commitment dates, rank history going back years and years is out there at the finger tips of millions of people, and untold thousands with free time and plenty of motivation to expose this injustice. If this thing is real there's got to be spreadsheet after spreadsheet out there to support it, where is it?
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#34
#34
VaBornVol said:
Yeah, you’re going to need somebody that cares a whole lot more than I do to compile that information for you.

I guess I’m not naive enough to think it’s an isolated case. 247 is a Nashville based company owned by an Alabama alum, who claims to do their own independent evaluations. This kid was supposedly in Knoxville. If they’re bumping kids two hours away based on offer lists, it’s highly unlikely it’s an isolated instance
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But your article said 247 listed him as a recruiting prospect but did NOT populate their own evaluation on this guy. That makes them look much better than Rivals who listed him as a 3 star, isn't the point of the current iteration of this crackpottery that we trust Rivals higher ranking of Bailey more than 247?

I guess I'm not naive enough to believe that with all of this data at the fingertips of millions of CFB fans, that either no one has ever analyzed that data OR has found evidence to support a pervasive bias in favor of certain schools and systematic discrimination against others (including our beloved Vols) and is just sitting on it.
 
#35
#35
I agree with you that seeing compiled data over time would be interesting, but nobody is going to put in that kind of time for something that doesn’t really matter. Think about it, the Bama Bump theory is that Bama’s players aren’t as good as they’re ranking, so the theory is inadvertently stating Bama’s coaches are winning with players that aren’t as good as they’re said to be

unfrozencvmanvol said:
But your article said 247 listed him as a recruiting prospect but did NOT populate their own evaluation on this guy. That makes them look much better than Rivals who listed him as a 3 star, isn't the point of the current iteration of this crackpottery that we trust Rivals higher ranking of Bailey more than 247?

I guess I'm not naive enough to believe that with all of this data at the fingertips of millions of CFB fans, that either no one has ever analyzed that data OR has found evidence to support a pervasive bias in favor of certain schools and systematic discrimination against others (including our beloved Vols) and is just sitting on it.
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#36
#36
Well what would you rather do? Hype a kid going to a school you know has elite player development and in 2 years likely look that much smarter when he turns out to be good, OR take the risk of hyping a kid who is going to a school with shaky player development and might turn out not to reach his potential? Of course the Bama bump exists. Ideally these services would rely solely on scouting, but I think they may have just 1 or 2 actual scouts on staff and the rest is just consensus and groupthink.
 
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#38
#38
OGbabyaviVol said:
In other words, couple that with the recent information about how they rank prospects, and it is verified even more that they don’t have a clue what they’re doing.
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So if you aren't as good as the GOAT in your industry, you "don't have a clue what (YOU)'re doing"? Are you the greatest at your profession and never defer to the best of the best? That is both naive and egotistical.
 
#39
#39
Devo182 said:
So if you aren't as good as the GOAT in your industry, you "don't have a clue what (YOU)'re doing"? Are you the greatest at your profession and never defer to the best of the best? That is both naive and egotistical.
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Okay, which recruiting guru are you?
 
#40
#40
The point is if your talent is tagged a 3* prior to an Alabama offer by “professionals” that are paid to evaluate you then you are a 3* talent after if they are confident in THEIR OWN abilities to evaluate. If they bump you (which they are known to do) then it’s like them admitting you were under evaluated by the very company you hired to properly evaluate you.
 
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#43
#43
Like anything else I’m sure there is some money being exchanged at some point behind all of this.
 
#44
#44
1vol8 said:
The point is if your talent is tagged a 3* prior to an Alabama offer by “professionals” that are paid to evaluate you then you are a 3* talent after if they are confident in THEIR OWN abilities to evaluate. If they bump you (which they are known to do) then it’s like them admitting you were under evaluated by the very company you hired to properly evaluate you.
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They have said (Simmons specifically) they can't see every kid in person, so some lesser seen, off the radar, etc type guys, we should trust coach's evals more - since they've likely had them camp or seen them in person. Its not crazy, no service is going to go bankrupt employing 2,000+ analysts - which is about how many recruiters d1 schools employ. It's not even a question and they admit as much its a crazy comparison.
 
#45
#45
benholt06 said:
Well what would you rather do? Hype a kid going to a school you know has elite player development and in 2 years likely look that much smarter when he turns out to be good, OR take the risk of hyping a kid who is going to a school with shaky player development and might turn out not to reach his potential? Of course the Bama bump exists. Ideally these services would rely solely on scouting, but I think they may have just 1 or 2 actual scouts on staff and the rest is just consensus and groupthink.
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Idk about Rivals or espn, but 247 by last count had about 10 scouts afaik
 
#46
#46
Even if the Bama bump isn’t real would it be wrong for the recruiting services to do so? Alabama has won at such a high and consistent level, as well as have so many draft picks it would almost be irresponsible for them not to.
 
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#47
#47
Devo182 said:
They have said (Simmons specifically) they can't see every kid in person, so some lesser seen, off the radar, etc type guys, we should trust coach's evals more - since they've likely had them camp or seen them in person. Its not crazy, no service is going to go bankrupt employing 2,000+ analysts - which is about how many recruiters d1 schools employ. It's not even a question and they admit as much its a crazy comparison.
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Ok. I’ll take that but what about the kids they DO see in camps ext and still have a lower rank than they should until their offer list includes schools like Alabama,Clemson,Ohio State and/or UGA?
It’s like paying a professional full price to mow half your lawn.
 
#48
#48
Seth McLaughlin is one I've been watching this cycle. He was ranked around 1,200 overall by 247 when he commited back in March. Earlier this month he was down to as low as almost 1,700. He just got a bump up this week to 763 overall. Almost a 900 spot jump.

I'm looking for him to end on the fringe of a 4*.
 
#49
#49
DiderotsGhost said:
We know for a fact that the recruiting services factor in offers as a very big part of their ratings. So when a program that has consistently been in the top 10 / making major bowl games / making the playoffs offers a kid, their rating goes up as a result.

It's not that the rating services are useless. It's that they are followers, not leaders.
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I'm afraid so. I would also say once Bama offers an obscured recruit in rankings and major offers, other power 5 teams suddenly take an unusual interest in the same recruit by extending multiple offers. Monkey see monkey do.
 
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