Do stars matter??

#26
#26
Volosaurus rex said:
I imagine that LWS would have as authoritative an answer to this question as anyone. I have only two thoughts on the matter: (1) Yes, stars matter, but recruiting rankings are more of an art than a science. Kids can, and still do, wind up being undervalued due to lack of exposure or the caliber of competition that they play locally. (2) Like everybody else, I want as many 5-star blue chip athletes as we can possibly sign. However, they often come with a price tag, in terms of ego. We have had particularly bad luck, in terms of retention, in recent years with elite prospects. My memory is a little foggy, with respect to whether the following players were rated high 4-star or 5-star prospects, but Bryce Brown, David Oku, Janzen Jackson and Da’rick Rogers all failed to have the kind of long-term impact as star players that we would have hoped to experience. And, no, I don’t consider one All-SEC caliber season, in Rogers’ case, as “long-term.”
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For those with slightly longer memories, a couple of Fulmer's last classes were completely laden with highly rated talent but it did not translate for whatever reason. The 05 and 07 classes were particularly sick with elite talent and a lot of those guys were ballers but it just wasn't enough to win at the high level to which we were then accustomed.

edit: I'm also going to add that the only way I see this team getting more than maybe six wins this year is if they land a stud RB who can come in and run between the tackles or get around the edge on SEC defenses. That's going to take a high 4 or 5 star commit IMO.
 
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#27
#27
It's pretty simple. The success with higher star athletes is almost exactly the same as high GPA employees in my experience.
 
#28
#28
VolunteerHillbilly said:
For those with slightly longer memories, a couple of Fulmer's last classes were completely laden with highly rated talent but it did not translate for whatever reason. The 05 and 07 classes were particularly sick with elite talent and a lot of those guys were ballers but it just wasn't enough to win at the high level to which we were then accustomed.

edit: I'm also going to add that the only way I see this team getting more than maybe six wins this year is if they land a stud RB who can come in and run between the tackles or get around the edge on SEC defenses. That's going to take a high 4 or 5 star commit IMO.
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Hard to win with the 07 class when they weren't here... That class coupled with the 08 class is a big reason why UT struggled in the following years...
 
#30
#30
I'd say yes and no.

If you have a team full of 3 stars that will run through a wall for their coach, and play like their heads are on fire, I'd say you'd have a pretty solid team.

If you have a team full of lazy 5 stars, that have always been 'me' type of players, you'd probably get similar results.

Ryan Swope is the type of 3 star I'm talking about. I can't think of an example for said 5 star.
 
#32
#32
LotteryPick said:
I'd say yes and no.

If you have a team full of 3 stars that will run through a wall for their coach, and play like their heads are on fire, I'd say you'd have a pretty solid team.

If you have a team full of lazy 5 stars, that have always been 'me' type of players, you'd probably get similar results.

Ryan Swope is the type of 3 star I'm talking about. I can't think of an example for said 5 star.
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The entire USC team this past season :whistling:
 
#33
#33
VolunteerHillbilly said:
For those with slightly longer memories, a couple of Fulmer's last classes were completely laden with highly rated talent but it did not translate for whatever reason. The 05 and 07 classes were particularly sick with elite talent and a lot of those guys were ballers but it just wasn't enough to win at the high level to which we were then accustomed.

edit: I'm also going to add that the only way I see this team getting more than maybe six wins this year is if they land a stud RB who can come in and run between the tackles or get around the edge on SEC defenses. That's going to take a high 4 or 5 star commit IMO.
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Agreed. I believe that an interesting adjunct to this little research problem would be to statistically compare the “bust” rate for elite prospects at Tennessee vs. the national average, whatever that might be. Bobby Bowden once stated that he long ago came to the conclusion that, if FSU was going to compete for national championships, they were going to have to overlook a lot of character flaws. And that decision was reached despite having an enormous recruiting pool of instate talent, an advantage that we do not possess. Since we have to search farther afield to fill our roster with SEC-caliber athletes than schools with stronger instate talent, our recruiting efforts, arguably, will be accompanied by a higher risk of “wash out.” After all, most of those out-of-state 5-star signees will not have grown up with the same burning desire to give their all for UT as a homegrown lad with orange blood coursing through his veins. Of course, this argument does not begin to address player development, which is contingent upon the quality of coaching received.
 
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#34
#34
LotteryPick said:
I'd say yes and no.

If you have a team full of 3 stars that will run through a wall for their coach, and play like their heads are on fire, I'd say you'd have a pretty solid team.

If you have a team full of lazy 5 stars, that have always been 'me' type of players, you'd probably get similar results.

Ryan Swope is the type of 3 star I'm talking about. I can't think of an example for said 5 star.
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We all want to believe that this is possible, because it's the only way to rationalize that we have a fighting chance barring a basketful of signing day surprises unlike anything we've ever seen in Knoxville. The problem is that we have to play teams that have elite athletes who are disciplined and smart and well coached in a proven system.
 
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#38
#38
50% of the 1st round NFL draft picks in 2012 were rated by rivals as 4 or 5 star prospects during their recruiting.
 
#40
#40
Didn't A&M have a 3 star that did pretty good this year? Johnny something.

Stars predict potential.
Heart determines potential.
Oh man, I just made that up. I impress my self sometimes:p
 
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#41
#41
BubbaDoc said:
Didn't A&M have a 3 star that did pretty good this year? Johnny something.

Stars predict potential.
Heart determines potential.
Oh man, I just made that up. I impress my self sometimes:p
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There's also Tim Tebow, a five star.


It can go either way, generally more so with five stars.
 
#42
#42
BubbaDoc said:
Didn't A&M have a 3 star that did pretty good this year? Johnny something.

Stars predict potential.
Heart determines potential.
Oh man, I just made that up. I impress my self sometimes:p
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I love it when people pick one player out to try to "prove" something in the stars debate.

Intelligent.
 
#43
#43
Short answer: Yes
Medium answer: Definitely yes
Long answer: Definitely yes without a doubt stars matter and using the random exceptions don't make it a rule
 
#44
#44
BruinVol said:
Alot of conversation about our recruiting lately has been centered around the lack of 4 and 5 star commitments. I have seen countless post stating that kids can and do develop into huge successful players that were 3star or even lower.

I would love to see if there is some data out there that gives the percent of success for kids and what their rankings were out of hs. If that data is out there someone please link it.

My assumption is that the success rate is greatly effected by a kids ranking. Sure some 5 star kids fail and some 2 star kids become great but the stars do matter IMO.

I posted this in another thread but would love to see what percentages you guys think the different ratings might show if there was a study done.

My guesses are::


5star players succeed at a 75per rate
4star players succeed at a 50per rate
3star players succeed at a 33per rate
2star players succeed at a 10per rate

What percentages would you guys guess as being correct??
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Don't remember the exact numbers but if "success" = getting drafted then I think all of those % are a tad high.

IIRC, 5* were around 60% which is still very good.
 
#45
#45
The rankings "matter" in the sense that when a guy gets a high rating he's usually a very good talent. They don't matter in the sense that they miss as many good players as they find. IOW's, for every stud that gets 4/5* there's a 3* or lower who ends up being a 4/5* player.

Some coaches have made a living out of finding those players that just need development. Petrino does it. The last two coaches at Oregon have done it. Snyder at K-State does it. Patterson does it. Wisconsin has done it for years.

We either have to hope that Jones is one of those guys who can see potential that others can't... or that he cranks recruiting up soon.
 
#48
#48
kidbourbon said:
Awww, somebody linked my post. Warm fuzzies, all over.
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I've got to tell you though, you're not very intelligent yourself, Kid. How much time should you spend trying to explain something like this to a subforum that was dedicated to the admiration of Derek Dooley for almost three years? Not the best use of your time.
 
#49
#49
They matter but its just a piece of the puzzle. How do you explain USC being loaded with 4 and 5 star players and losing 6 games? Texas has under achieved as well considering their recruiting classes. No the evaluations are not always right but even a 5 star has to be coached up.
 
#50
#50
WesternKyVol said:
I've got to tell you though, you're not very intelligent yourself, Kid. How much time should you spend trying to explain something like this to a subforum that was dedicated to the admiration of Derek Dooley for almost three years? Not the best use of your time.
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Do you think it took me hours and hours to write that post?
 
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