DiderotsGhost
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It's almost football time in Tennessee. It’s the only time of year I want time to move faster, rather than slower! Is there not a way to watch 2 weeks of games before they happen?
Yet, I have to ask "where are we at?" More than any other preseason, the answer is "I have no clue." The range of outcomes is much wider than most.
The media almost universally thinks we'll be terrible. The predictions are in the 4-8 to 6-6 range just like in 2013. But this is nothing like 2013.
In 2013, Derek Dooley left Butch Jones a depleted roster. We had the worst defense in the SEC in 2012 and a quick turn-around was unlikely given a lack of depth, speed, and SEC talent on the roster. Moreover, our one strong suit from the Dooley years (the passing offense) was gutted with most of the key players turning pro (Tyler Bray, Cordarelle Patterson, and Justin Hunter.) While Butch Jones ended up being the wrong solution, no coach would've done well with the situation he inherited in 2013.
Contrast that with 2013 Auburn. Auburn was coming off a disastrous 3-9 campaign in 2012. They finished 0-8 in the conference and had one of the worst seasons in school history. No one was predicting much from that 2013 Auburn team. The “optimists” thought they might win 7 games. They ended up going 12-2 with an appearance in the National Championship Game. Those are opposite ends of the totem pole. That 2013 Auburn was much better than it appeared once it had the right coaching. That 2013 Tennessee team would’ve been bad no matter who coached it.
Thankfully, Pruitt doesn't inherit the same dismal situation that Butch Jones did in 2013. The one thing Butch did well was recruit. We're loaded with talent. Coming off the worst season in UT history (a 4-8 clunker), certainly we should be skeptical of a quick turnaround, and yet the situation is also very different from 2013 or 2010. This team is much, much more talented than both of those teams.
So where are we? I think the media is wrong. We’re not a 4-8 or 5-7 team. Though, expecting a 2013 Auburn like miracle season when we're changing philosophies on both sides of the ball would be a stretch, as well. Maybe we’re somewhere in between. In my head, I see 7-5 as a reasonable goal, but I admit I may be wearing my “orange-colored glasses.”
In any case, here’s my long-winded overview of the roster. Feel free to chime in and agree or disagree.
Grading our Position Groups
A = SEC title contender
B = Good bowl game
C = Low-level bowl game
D = Poor
F = Awful
Defense
Linebackers
Overall: A
Depth: A
Upside: A+
Downside: B
Let’s start out with our strength. Our linebacker corps has more talent than any other SEC team outside of Alabama and Georgia; and arguably, we’re even up there with them. We bring back Daniel Bituli, who was a beast last season. We move Darrell Taylor to OLB, where he should thrive. Quart'e Sapp is looking stronger now in his 4th season. We don't know if DK Jr will be back to his former self, but if he is, he can be one of the best LBs in the nation. If Kongbo shows improvement, and we get contributions from Will Ignont, Shannon Reid, Deandre Johnson, and Austin Smith, this LB corp has the potential to be very, very good. We’re being underestimated in general, but particularly with our LBs, which are top 3 in the SEC, and potentially even up there up at #1 if things go right.
Secondary
Overall: B
Depth: C+
Upside: A
Downside: C
While the secondary isn't as strong as LBs, it should be good. We bring back Nigel Warrior, who could start for any SEC team. Alontae Taylor is a true Freshman, but he's looking very promising already. I have a lot of confidence in Baylen Buchanan, as well, who has shown flashes of greatness in the past. I think we'll get good contributions from Trevon Flowers, Shawn Shamburger, Micah Abernathy, and TK Jr as well. However, I do think depth is a little more of a concern in the secondary than it is at LB right now; particularly against WV, where we might need an abundance of DBs. That said, CJP's stats with DBs are extraordinarily good. Pruitt knows DBs like few other coaches out there
D-Line
Overall: B-
Depth: D
Upside: A
Downside: D
The D-line is still the part of the defense that gives me the most concern. On paper, our starters look pretty solid: Shy Tuttle, Kyle Phillips, and Alexis Johnson. However, the shift to 3-4 will be most dramatic for the D-line. How will Shy Tuttle handle his new role as Nose Tackle? And will Tuttle be back to his pre-injury self? I'm also concerned about what happens at DL if we have injuries, as the depth there isn't great. Kingston Harris is a true Freshman in the 2-deep. He could grow into a good player, but I think it would be tough if we were in a situation starting at true Freshman on the DL. So while I'm giving us a "B", the range of outcomes for the DL I think is much wider than it is for the LBs or DBs.
Offense
Quarterbacks
Overall: B
Depth: B
Upside: A
Downside: C
I'm more confident than most with Jarrett Guarantano at QB. There are valid criticisms of JG; he held the ball too long at times last season. However, by and large, most of the blame for last year's debacle falls with the O-line, lack of WRs, and horrible coaching. JG's stats were on par with Freshman Erik Ainge. He's got the potential to be great, but whether he lives up to that potential remains to be seen. Regardless, I do think recruiting Chryst to Knoxville was one of the biggest offseason coups for Pruitt. At a bare minimum, he adds solid depth and prevents a disaster situation were JG to get injured. At best, he might even end up being our starter. I expect QB play to improve this season.
Running Backs
Overall: B
Depth: B+
Upside: A-
Downside: B-
RB is one position where I feel like our range of outcomes is more well-defined. Chandler was underutilized last season. He’s a top 10 RB in the SEC and potentially a top 5 back. Tim Jordan has promise and Madre London gives us some better depth as well. While this isn’t as dynamic of an RB group as some of our best, it’s reasonably good. That said, we don't have a clear superstar like D'Andre Swift at UGA or Damien Harris at Bama.
Wide Receivers
Overall: B
Depth: B
Upside: A+
Downside: C
This could be our most improved position group. Our WRs were awful last year. We had a dearth of talent and depth, exacerbated by JJ’s injury. We really only had 2 guys who were anywhere close to consistent performers (Callaway and Brandon Johnson), and even then, it's more accurate to say Callaway and Johnson showed “flashes”. That said, if they can continue to improve, they can grow into big threats at WR. At the same time, we get JJ back (our best WR in 2016), Josh Palmer and Jordan Murphy continue to improve, and it sounds like we might’ve gotten a steal with Cedric Tillman. This unit can potentially be much better than we saw last season and I think we found a great WR coach in David Johnson. If there's anywhere we can take a huge leap forward this season, it's WR.
Offensive Line
Overall: C+
Depth: C-
Upside: B+
Downside: D
Offensive Line was very bad last year. It's a bit of a paradox to have the best O-lineman (Trey Smith) in the entire country and one of the worst O-lines. How does that even happen? And it's tough to fix big O-line issues in one season. But the real question is “why”? We had talent, but Butch Jones’ O-lines consistently underperformed during his entire time in Knoxville. Injuries were part of the reason (and Butch made a habit of leading the NCAA in injuries), but even when healthy, we struggled.
This is why I’m not sure what to expect out of the OL. I still think we have significant depth concerns, but with Trey Smith, Brandon Kennedy, Ryan Johnson, Drew Richmond, Marcus Tatum, Chance Hall, and Jahmir Johnson, it’s not like we’re lining up a bunch of scrubs. In the spring game, the 1st team O-line played reasonably well, but the 2nd team was horrendous. Our grade for last season should’ve been an “F”, so it’s difficult to anticipate being “good” this season but if we can improve to at least a “C”, that would be significant progress and a few more wins. The orange-glasses optimist in me hopes that a change of scheme leads to immediate results and this O-line ends up being closer to a "B". The realist says it may take 2-3 years. But we do have talent right now.
Special Teams
Overall: ????
The only area we were consistently good in the Butch Jones years was STs. Trevor Daniel was one of the best punters in the country and Evan Berry was arguably the best kickoff returner. As difficult as it is to predict “where we are” at most position groups right now, this one is an even bigger question mark than most. We are breaking in a new Punter. We bring back Cimaglia at Kicker, who has one of the strongest legs in college football, but needs to improve accuracy. And it’s anyone guess how we’ll do at kick and punt returns. The question marks here don’t necessarily mean we’ll be bad; simply that I have no idea how we’ll look until we see our guys out on the field.
Other Thoughts
We have a shot at winning every game. Not necessarily a very good shot at teams like Alabama and Georgia, but not outside the realm of possibility either. But even ignoring the 3 Murderer’s Row games (UGA, Auburn, Bama), we should be competitive with every other team we play. Even if the downside is a 5-7 season, the ceiling may be 9-3. I think we end up somewhere between those two numbers, but it’s really tough to evaluate this team right now.
We're healthy. Almost seems weird, but this is the healthiest our team has been in years. Injuries plagued us during Butch's time and Pruitt thought it had a lot to do with poor practice habits. We can definitely see a difference already under CJP.
West Virginia, Florida, South Carolina, Mizzou. We’ll be better than the sportswriters think, but still not as good as we’d like. The four most important games in my view: West Virginia, Florida, South Carolina, and Missouri. Those are four winnable games (but also four loseable games) and how we fare against those four determines our season.
Can we fix the run defense? Run D was the biggest issue from last year's team other than the O-line. It absolutely needs to improve for us to exceed expectations significantly.
Orange-colored glasses. We've got about 36 hours left to wear the orange-colored glasses before it's time to get real.
GBO!
Yet, I have to ask "where are we at?" More than any other preseason, the answer is "I have no clue." The range of outcomes is much wider than most.
The media almost universally thinks we'll be terrible. The predictions are in the 4-8 to 6-6 range just like in 2013. But this is nothing like 2013.
In 2013, Derek Dooley left Butch Jones a depleted roster. We had the worst defense in the SEC in 2012 and a quick turn-around was unlikely given a lack of depth, speed, and SEC talent on the roster. Moreover, our one strong suit from the Dooley years (the passing offense) was gutted with most of the key players turning pro (Tyler Bray, Cordarelle Patterson, and Justin Hunter.) While Butch Jones ended up being the wrong solution, no coach would've done well with the situation he inherited in 2013.
Contrast that with 2013 Auburn. Auburn was coming off a disastrous 3-9 campaign in 2012. They finished 0-8 in the conference and had one of the worst seasons in school history. No one was predicting much from that 2013 Auburn team. The “optimists” thought they might win 7 games. They ended up going 12-2 with an appearance in the National Championship Game. Those are opposite ends of the totem pole. That 2013 Auburn was much better than it appeared once it had the right coaching. That 2013 Tennessee team would’ve been bad no matter who coached it.
Thankfully, Pruitt doesn't inherit the same dismal situation that Butch Jones did in 2013. The one thing Butch did well was recruit. We're loaded with talent. Coming off the worst season in UT history (a 4-8 clunker), certainly we should be skeptical of a quick turnaround, and yet the situation is also very different from 2013 or 2010. This team is much, much more talented than both of those teams.
So where are we? I think the media is wrong. We’re not a 4-8 or 5-7 team. Though, expecting a 2013 Auburn like miracle season when we're changing philosophies on both sides of the ball would be a stretch, as well. Maybe we’re somewhere in between. In my head, I see 7-5 as a reasonable goal, but I admit I may be wearing my “orange-colored glasses.”
In any case, here’s my long-winded overview of the roster. Feel free to chime in and agree or disagree.
Grading our Position Groups
A = SEC title contender
B = Good bowl game
C = Low-level bowl game
D = Poor
F = Awful
Defense
Linebackers
Overall: A
Depth: A
Upside: A+
Downside: B
Let’s start out with our strength. Our linebacker corps has more talent than any other SEC team outside of Alabama and Georgia; and arguably, we’re even up there with them. We bring back Daniel Bituli, who was a beast last season. We move Darrell Taylor to OLB, where he should thrive. Quart'e Sapp is looking stronger now in his 4th season. We don't know if DK Jr will be back to his former self, but if he is, he can be one of the best LBs in the nation. If Kongbo shows improvement, and we get contributions from Will Ignont, Shannon Reid, Deandre Johnson, and Austin Smith, this LB corp has the potential to be very, very good. We’re being underestimated in general, but particularly with our LBs, which are top 3 in the SEC, and potentially even up there up at #1 if things go right.
Secondary
Overall: B
Depth: C+
Upside: A
Downside: C
While the secondary isn't as strong as LBs, it should be good. We bring back Nigel Warrior, who could start for any SEC team. Alontae Taylor is a true Freshman, but he's looking very promising already. I have a lot of confidence in Baylen Buchanan, as well, who has shown flashes of greatness in the past. I think we'll get good contributions from Trevon Flowers, Shawn Shamburger, Micah Abernathy, and TK Jr as well. However, I do think depth is a little more of a concern in the secondary than it is at LB right now; particularly against WV, where we might need an abundance of DBs. That said, CJP's stats with DBs are extraordinarily good. Pruitt knows DBs like few other coaches out there
D-Line
Overall: B-
Depth: D
Upside: A
Downside: D
The D-line is still the part of the defense that gives me the most concern. On paper, our starters look pretty solid: Shy Tuttle, Kyle Phillips, and Alexis Johnson. However, the shift to 3-4 will be most dramatic for the D-line. How will Shy Tuttle handle his new role as Nose Tackle? And will Tuttle be back to his pre-injury self? I'm also concerned about what happens at DL if we have injuries, as the depth there isn't great. Kingston Harris is a true Freshman in the 2-deep. He could grow into a good player, but I think it would be tough if we were in a situation starting at true Freshman on the DL. So while I'm giving us a "B", the range of outcomes for the DL I think is much wider than it is for the LBs or DBs.
Offense
Quarterbacks
Overall: B
Depth: B
Upside: A
Downside: C
I'm more confident than most with Jarrett Guarantano at QB. There are valid criticisms of JG; he held the ball too long at times last season. However, by and large, most of the blame for last year's debacle falls with the O-line, lack of WRs, and horrible coaching. JG's stats were on par with Freshman Erik Ainge. He's got the potential to be great, but whether he lives up to that potential remains to be seen. Regardless, I do think recruiting Chryst to Knoxville was one of the biggest offseason coups for Pruitt. At a bare minimum, he adds solid depth and prevents a disaster situation were JG to get injured. At best, he might even end up being our starter. I expect QB play to improve this season.
Running Backs
Overall: B
Depth: B+
Upside: A-
Downside: B-
RB is one position where I feel like our range of outcomes is more well-defined. Chandler was underutilized last season. He’s a top 10 RB in the SEC and potentially a top 5 back. Tim Jordan has promise and Madre London gives us some better depth as well. While this isn’t as dynamic of an RB group as some of our best, it’s reasonably good. That said, we don't have a clear superstar like D'Andre Swift at UGA or Damien Harris at Bama.
Wide Receivers
Overall: B
Depth: B
Upside: A+
Downside: C
This could be our most improved position group. Our WRs were awful last year. We had a dearth of talent and depth, exacerbated by JJ’s injury. We really only had 2 guys who were anywhere close to consistent performers (Callaway and Brandon Johnson), and even then, it's more accurate to say Callaway and Johnson showed “flashes”. That said, if they can continue to improve, they can grow into big threats at WR. At the same time, we get JJ back (our best WR in 2016), Josh Palmer and Jordan Murphy continue to improve, and it sounds like we might’ve gotten a steal with Cedric Tillman. This unit can potentially be much better than we saw last season and I think we found a great WR coach in David Johnson. If there's anywhere we can take a huge leap forward this season, it's WR.
Offensive Line
Overall: C+
Depth: C-
Upside: B+
Downside: D
Offensive Line was very bad last year. It's a bit of a paradox to have the best O-lineman (Trey Smith) in the entire country and one of the worst O-lines. How does that even happen? And it's tough to fix big O-line issues in one season. But the real question is “why”? We had talent, but Butch Jones’ O-lines consistently underperformed during his entire time in Knoxville. Injuries were part of the reason (and Butch made a habit of leading the NCAA in injuries), but even when healthy, we struggled.
This is why I’m not sure what to expect out of the OL. I still think we have significant depth concerns, but with Trey Smith, Brandon Kennedy, Ryan Johnson, Drew Richmond, Marcus Tatum, Chance Hall, and Jahmir Johnson, it’s not like we’re lining up a bunch of scrubs. In the spring game, the 1st team O-line played reasonably well, but the 2nd team was horrendous. Our grade for last season should’ve been an “F”, so it’s difficult to anticipate being “good” this season but if we can improve to at least a “C”, that would be significant progress and a few more wins. The orange-glasses optimist in me hopes that a change of scheme leads to immediate results and this O-line ends up being closer to a "B". The realist says it may take 2-3 years. But we do have talent right now.
Special Teams
Overall: ????
The only area we were consistently good in the Butch Jones years was STs. Trevor Daniel was one of the best punters in the country and Evan Berry was arguably the best kickoff returner. As difficult as it is to predict “where we are” at most position groups right now, this one is an even bigger question mark than most. We are breaking in a new Punter. We bring back Cimaglia at Kicker, who has one of the strongest legs in college football, but needs to improve accuracy. And it’s anyone guess how we’ll do at kick and punt returns. The question marks here don’t necessarily mean we’ll be bad; simply that I have no idea how we’ll look until we see our guys out on the field.
Other Thoughts
We have a shot at winning every game. Not necessarily a very good shot at teams like Alabama and Georgia, but not outside the realm of possibility either. But even ignoring the 3 Murderer’s Row games (UGA, Auburn, Bama), we should be competitive with every other team we play. Even if the downside is a 5-7 season, the ceiling may be 9-3. I think we end up somewhere between those two numbers, but it’s really tough to evaluate this team right now.
We're healthy. Almost seems weird, but this is the healthiest our team has been in years. Injuries plagued us during Butch's time and Pruitt thought it had a lot to do with poor practice habits. We can definitely see a difference already under CJP.
West Virginia, Florida, South Carolina, Mizzou. We’ll be better than the sportswriters think, but still not as good as we’d like. The four most important games in my view: West Virginia, Florida, South Carolina, and Missouri. Those are four winnable games (but also four loseable games) and how we fare against those four determines our season.
Can we fix the run defense? Run D was the biggest issue from last year's team other than the O-line. It absolutely needs to improve for us to exceed expectations significantly.
Orange-colored glasses. We've got about 36 hours left to wear the orange-colored glasses before it's time to get real.
GBO!
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