DiderotsGhost
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Been super-busy lately, but thought I'd get in my post.
Pruitt's First Class
We're disappointed b/c we raised our expectations. I'm disappointed we didn't land any "big fish" on signing day just like everyone else, but it's important to realize the reason we're all "disappointed." We're "disappointed" because Pruitt had us in the running with a lot of blue-chip recruits that we would've never been in with otherwise. And remember, he built relationships with some of these recruits less than 7 weeks ago. The fact that we were even under consideration is a bit of a miracle. It's rare to land blue-chip recruits when you only have a few weeks to build relationships.
#20 Class is Impressive. Ignore the fact that we missed out some 5-stars that no one on Earth expected us to land 6 weeks ago and the class is reasonably impressive. Remember, Butch Jones' class completely fell apart and the last staff had all but quit recruiting by October. Our class was ranked down in the 50's at one point, and even that likely overstated where we were, since some of our "commits" were already looking at other schools. Pruitt was hired 2 months ago, with the task of salvaging an obliterated class. He got us up to #20 while being a part-time coach. If we had a bit of luck, we might have even been up to #15. That's impressive when you look at it in that context.
Partial year classes are normally weaker. It's rare for an incoming head coach to pull in a top class after the previous coach was fired. Traditionally, there's a big Year 2 class jump, since that's the first class the incoming coach has a full year to work on. Here are some incoming coaches 1st year classes vs 2nd year. Almost all coaches struggle a bit with the partial year and have a big jump in Year 2.
Pete Carroll. #20 v #8
Nick Saban. #12 v #3
Dabo Swinney. #36 v #27
Tom Herman. #25 v #3
Urban Meyer @ FL: #12 v #2
Kevin Sumlin: #16 v #9
Mark Richt @ UM: #22 v 12
Brian Kelly: #15 v #9
There are exceptions, but typically, the exceptions are for coaches who are located in the deepest talent pools (Florida, L.A., Louisiana, Georgia) or who already have established connections at the university (see Gus Malzahn at Auburn).
2019 class is very important. Based on this, the 2019 class is going to be immensely important. Anyone that expected us to a pick up a top 10 or top 12 type of class for 2018 was probably being overly optimistic, but great coaches typically recruit well for their 2nd class (1st full class). And the really great coaches continue to improve.
Dabo Swinney. Swinney's early recruiting numbers seem terrible compared to where he's at now. He wasn't even in the top 25 for his 2nd year. Almost comical looking back at where he started. There's a legit case that Swinney is one of the top 5 coaches of the 21st Century, right behind Saban and Pete Carroll.
The 2018 Season
Defense looks much better than offense. It normally takes a new coach two years to really get his system running well and that will probably be the case here as well, but we have a lot of talent on defense. Our secondary is well-stocked (even more so now that Byrd is moving to DB). We look very good at LB with Kirkland, Bituli, Sapp, and Ignont. We can also move Darrell Taylor to OLB if necessary for a 3-4 scheme. At least on paper, we look pretty good on D.
We added some studs to D. JJ Peterson, Jordan Allen, Greg Emerson, Brent Lawless, Emmit Gooden, Trevon Flowers. Our recruiting haul on defense is stellar for a partial-year class.
Offense still a problem. I'm not disappointed with the class, because I know historically how difficult it is to put together a top class on short notice, but it does suck that we really struck out on offense where we need the help the most.
WR is a huge issue. Losing Young and missing out on Copeland are the biggest losses IMO. Our WR depth is still a major weakness. Thanksfully, we get JJ back next season, and bring back Callaway and Brandon Johnson, but beyond that, we're struggling at WR. Alontae Taylor was a big grab, but would've helped immensely to have gotten another WR that might be able to play in Year 1.
QB situation is ugly. I'm much higher on JG than most here. JG's stats at the end of the season were actually very good and most of the struggles were in the red zone where we lacked solid possession receivers. My bigger concern is that we don't have a legit backup QB. Shrout is a project at best (and can't imagine he'll see significant action till 2020 at the earliest) and McBride was terrible passing the ball last season and doesn't really fit into a pro-style system. We desperately need a grad transfer.
O-line still problematic. Trey Smith is a beast. We have some other contributors and potential contributors in Ryan Johnson, Drew Richmond, Marcus Tatum, and maybe Nathan Niehaus, but we are looking thin at OL once again. Big recruit in Jerome Carvin, but rare for Freshman to have an impact on OL in the SEC.
RBs are solid, but not enough. RBs are clearly our strength on offense in 2018 with Ty Chander, CFA, Tim Jordan, and Trey Coleman. We also add big back Jeremy Banks. But a one-dimensional offense with a weak OL won't cut it in the SEC.
2019 Class
QB is #1 need. Shrout is a great project, but we need a blue chip QB for the 2019 class.
O-line help. We desperately need help on OL.
WRs. We really need at least 2-3 blue-chip WRs in 2019. If Callaway leaves for the draft after next season, that puts us in really bad shape for 2019 without some big-time recruits.
Nose Tackle. We know we're probably switching to 3-4 over time, so this is a big need.
Keep landing defensive studs. I don't think we have glaring weaknesses at defense right now. We just need to reload with the stud recruits that Pruitt is capable of getting. We'll probably sign more LBs than we have in the past due to the 3-4, but that's the only real shift.
Pruitt's First Class
We're disappointed b/c we raised our expectations. I'm disappointed we didn't land any "big fish" on signing day just like everyone else, but it's important to realize the reason we're all "disappointed." We're "disappointed" because Pruitt had us in the running with a lot of blue-chip recruits that we would've never been in with otherwise. And remember, he built relationships with some of these recruits less than 7 weeks ago. The fact that we were even under consideration is a bit of a miracle. It's rare to land blue-chip recruits when you only have a few weeks to build relationships.
#20 Class is Impressive. Ignore the fact that we missed out some 5-stars that no one on Earth expected us to land 6 weeks ago and the class is reasonably impressive. Remember, Butch Jones' class completely fell apart and the last staff had all but quit recruiting by October. Our class was ranked down in the 50's at one point, and even that likely overstated where we were, since some of our "commits" were already looking at other schools. Pruitt was hired 2 months ago, with the task of salvaging an obliterated class. He got us up to #20 while being a part-time coach. If we had a bit of luck, we might have even been up to #15. That's impressive when you look at it in that context.
Partial year classes are normally weaker. It's rare for an incoming head coach to pull in a top class after the previous coach was fired. Traditionally, there's a big Year 2 class jump, since that's the first class the incoming coach has a full year to work on. Here are some incoming coaches 1st year classes vs 2nd year. Almost all coaches struggle a bit with the partial year and have a big jump in Year 2.
Pete Carroll. #20 v #8
Nick Saban. #12 v #3
Dabo Swinney. #36 v #27
Tom Herman. #25 v #3
Urban Meyer @ FL: #12 v #2
Kevin Sumlin: #16 v #9
Mark Richt @ UM: #22 v 12
Brian Kelly: #15 v #9
There are exceptions, but typically, the exceptions are for coaches who are located in the deepest talent pools (Florida, L.A., Louisiana, Georgia) or who already have established connections at the university (see Gus Malzahn at Auburn).
2019 class is very important. Based on this, the 2019 class is going to be immensely important. Anyone that expected us to a pick up a top 10 or top 12 type of class for 2018 was probably being overly optimistic, but great coaches typically recruit well for their 2nd class (1st full class). And the really great coaches continue to improve.
Dabo Swinney. Swinney's early recruiting numbers seem terrible compared to where he's at now. He wasn't even in the top 25 for his 2nd year. Almost comical looking back at where he started. There's a legit case that Swinney is one of the top 5 coaches of the 21st Century, right behind Saban and Pete Carroll.
The 2018 Season
Defense looks much better than offense. It normally takes a new coach two years to really get his system running well and that will probably be the case here as well, but we have a lot of talent on defense. Our secondary is well-stocked (even more so now that Byrd is moving to DB). We look very good at LB with Kirkland, Bituli, Sapp, and Ignont. We can also move Darrell Taylor to OLB if necessary for a 3-4 scheme. At least on paper, we look pretty good on D.
We added some studs to D. JJ Peterson, Jordan Allen, Greg Emerson, Brent Lawless, Emmit Gooden, Trevon Flowers. Our recruiting haul on defense is stellar for a partial-year class.
Offense still a problem. I'm not disappointed with the class, because I know historically how difficult it is to put together a top class on short notice, but it does suck that we really struck out on offense where we need the help the most.
WR is a huge issue. Losing Young and missing out on Copeland are the biggest losses IMO. Our WR depth is still a major weakness. Thanksfully, we get JJ back next season, and bring back Callaway and Brandon Johnson, but beyond that, we're struggling at WR. Alontae Taylor was a big grab, but would've helped immensely to have gotten another WR that might be able to play in Year 1.
QB situation is ugly. I'm much higher on JG than most here. JG's stats at the end of the season were actually very good and most of the struggles were in the red zone where we lacked solid possession receivers. My bigger concern is that we don't have a legit backup QB. Shrout is a project at best (and can't imagine he'll see significant action till 2020 at the earliest) and McBride was terrible passing the ball last season and doesn't really fit into a pro-style system. We desperately need a grad transfer.
O-line still problematic. Trey Smith is a beast. We have some other contributors and potential contributors in Ryan Johnson, Drew Richmond, Marcus Tatum, and maybe Nathan Niehaus, but we are looking thin at OL once again. Big recruit in Jerome Carvin, but rare for Freshman to have an impact on OL in the SEC.
RBs are solid, but not enough. RBs are clearly our strength on offense in 2018 with Ty Chander, CFA, Tim Jordan, and Trey Coleman. We also add big back Jeremy Banks. But a one-dimensional offense with a weak OL won't cut it in the SEC.
2019 Class
QB is #1 need. Shrout is a great project, but we need a blue chip QB for the 2019 class.
O-line help. We desperately need help on OL.
WRs. We really need at least 2-3 blue-chip WRs in 2019. If Callaway leaves for the draft after next season, that puts us in really bad shape for 2019 without some big-time recruits.
Nose Tackle. We know we're probably switching to 3-4 over time, so this is a big need.
Keep landing defensive studs. I don't think we have glaring weaknesses at defense right now. We just need to reload with the stud recruits that Pruitt is capable of getting. We'll probably sign more LBs than we have in the past due to the 3-4, but that's the only real shift.
