DiderotsGhost
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Haven't posted in awhile, so here's my one big TL;DR post on Butch Jones, 2016, new coaching hires, and the upcoming 2017 season.
Evaluating Butch
Dooley's Dumpster Fire. In order to honestly evaluate Butch, we must first acknowledge that he inherited a certifiable "dumpster fire." Dooley failed to recruit at nearly every position and left Jones with the thinnest O-line in the entire SEC in 2014. That was hardly Dooley's only failure, however, as he destroyed our team mentally. How many games did our guys simply give up as soon as they fell behind by 1 score? In Dooley's last two seasons, we finished 11th out of 12 in the SEC in 2011 and 12th out of 14 in 2012.
Revival. Butch had a tough rebuilding job, but did an excellent job recruiting new players to the program and turning around the team's mindset. The program is in much better shape in 2017 than it was in 2012 when Butch took over.
Mixed Success. We failed to make a bowl game in 2013, but that was forgivable given our lack of skill players. We did make a lower-tier bowl game in 2014 and Butch deserves credit for that. While we lost a lot of close games in 2015, I still feel that the '15 team significantly outperformed in many ways, and got a huge bowl win. The 2016 team was a disappointment, but we were still 9-4 with a good bowl win. Overall, in the past two seasons, we've probably been about the 3rd or 4th best team in the SEC, which is a dramatic improvement from where we were.
Can Butch "Dabo" or Has He Hit His Ceiling? This is the real question IMO. Butch has a lot in common with Dabo Swinney, who I'll remind you, just won a national championship at Clemson. Dabo was not an instant success, and didn't have big success till his 5th season at Clemson, after he had replaced both his OC (after 3rd season) and his DC (after 4th season). Dabo made great hires after that, recruited spectacularly (including DeShaun Watson), and has built an outstanding program. Can Butch "Dabo" or has he hit the ceiling?
Butch is a Solid "B" So Far. Thus far in his career, I think we can give Butch a solid "B" for turning the program around, getting us competitive again, and 3 impressive bowl wins. This is similar to Dabo at the same time, as well.
The 2016 Season
National Title Defense Turns to Giant Sieve. Everyone is down on our defense, but I'm the contrarian. Here's the thing: our "D" played like a national title contender in the early season against Virginia Tech, App State, and Florida (2nd Half). The performance declined significantly after that and turned horrendous by November as we gave up 36 versus Kentucky, 37 to Mizzou, and 45 to Vandy. That's unacceptable, but we also have to remember that we experienced a massive number of injuries, particularly on the D-line and in the LB corps. Compound that with our fast-paced, turnover-prone offense, which forces our defense to play more snaps than most other teams, and you have a recipe for disaster. So what's the verdict? I'd have to say "unknown." Bob Shoop has an excellent track record historically, but all the injuries really hurt us late 2016.
Jekyll / Hyde Offense. At the end of the season, most of VN was happy about our offense, but once again, I'm a bit of the contrarian here. I think our offense really came on at the end of the season, but significantly underperformed at several points in the year. Our offensive performance was absolutely horrid versus App State, we struggled against VT (but the "D" won that game), and we struggled against Ohio. We had a great performances versus UGA and put up a lot of points versus A&M (albeit, counteracted in some ways by a huge # of turnovers). Then we played terrible versus Bama, South Carolina, and only scored 3 points in the 2nd half versus Vandy. Sure, our points per game and yardage stats look great, but they were overwhelmingly put up in a few games and those stats ignore the turnover issues (as well as all the help the "O" got from the "D" with turnovers). I'd give our offense a "B" on the year, but until we play with more consistency, we're not going to be elite.
When the Two Halves Play Well. But think about it. Our offense played spectacularly at times this year (versus Florida, Mizzou, UGA, Nebraska) and our defense played spectacularly at times this year (versus VT, App State, Florida). The only time it felt like the two "came together" at the same time was the 2nd half of that Florida game. So we saw flashes of brilliance on both sides of the ball; just rarely at the same time.
Strength & Conditioning. S&C was a huge issue all year and I continue to believe that this was our biggest problem in the 2016 season. With the Rock Gullickson hiring, I'm hoping we get those issues sorted out. It seemed noticeable all season that we seemed like we were in worse shape than in 2015, particularly on the O-line. Then, all the injuries on D seemed to further substantiate this.
The New Hires
Rock Gullickson. Already mentioned it, but I think this is a very good hire. Hopefully, we can get S&C back to the level it was in 2015.
Brady Hoke. I give this hire an "A." Hoke may not have succeeded at Michigan, but he did transform the defense during his first two seasons and molded excellent defenses at Ball State and San Diego State as well. Brady's failures at Michigan had more to do with lack of offensive identity than anything. I wouldn't necessarily consider this hire an "upgrade" because Stripling was a great coach, as well, but Hoke's a great replacement and may even be a slight improvement.
Charlton Warren. Another "A" hire. Warren significantly improved UNC's secondary during his two years there. Warren is definitely an upgrade over Willie Martinez, who was our "weakest link" among the defensive coaches.
Larry Scott. This wasn't the Mark Helfrich "home run hire" I was rooting for, but I still like it. Some have criticized the Scott hire because he's never been an OC before, but neither were David Cutcliffe or Phillip Fulmer when we hired them. Scott is an accomplished coach. We'll have to see how it plays out, but I'm optimistic that he'll succeed in the role.
Mike Canales. On the face of it, this is a questionable hire, but not necessarily bad. Let's start out by saying that Canales coached Phillip Rivers at NC State and has been an OC for several years, so hiring him as a QB coach makes some sense. Still, he's more of a "wild card" than a lot of other coaches. It's difficult to know how he'll adapt to the SEC given that he hasn't coached at P5 school at all in the past 10 years. However, I have no reason to doubt Butch on this one either.
Walt Wells. Another "wait-and-see" hire for me. Wells has plenty of experience coaching O-line at G5 schools. He was OC at South Florida under Willie Taggart, as well, during the 2013 season when USF went 2-10. He was fired after the 2014 season. Difficult to evaluate him based on this. While he "failed" at USF, it was a situation where it would've been difficult for anyone to have succeeded (similar to us in 2013) However, the obvious criticism here is that we're hiring Willie Taggart's rejects. I don't know if this is an upgrade or not, but O-line has been our biggest weakness on offense for much of the past 3 years.
The 2017 Season
Expectations are Low. Remember in 1997 when many media folk declared us a national title contender and then in 1998 when we were supposed to be an 8-3 type borderline top 25 team? Well, the '98 won the national title and the '97 team was very good, but finished the season ranked #8 after a huge blowout loss to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. Also remember 2005 when we were supposed to be a national title contender and went 5-6? Meanwhile, in 2007, we were supposed to be down and won the SEC East. All I'm saying is, media expectations are often wrong. There were sky-high expectations for the 2016 team and I don't think we could've possibly met them. There were numerous commentators predicting we'd make the playoff or go 11-1. For 2017, expectations are sort of low, and maybe that's a good thing.
We Still Have a Lot of Talent. We lose Josh Dobbs and Alvin Kamara, but we have several great QBs in the running to take the starting job, and we have many options at RB. Our O-line should get better. While we lose a few key defensive players, we still have a load of talent on the line. Hopefully, we don't get decimated by injuries again this year, and we see the secondary improve under Coach Warren.
Look for Progress. I'm not predicting we'll win the SEC or anything, but I'm optimistic that we'll see some progress next season. Another 9 win season is not out of the question, and 10 wins (including bowl game) isn't completely unreasonable. Depending on how things play out, we still have a shot to win the SEC East. Don't hang Butch if we finish 2nd in the SEC East, though, and go 10-3 or 9-4 with a good bowl win.
Recruiting
The 2017 Class. The 2017 class was good, but we dropped off a bit from where we were. Nothing to be ashamed of with a #16 class on 247Sports, but consider that we had the #4 class in 2015 when we had similar numbers (our #14 class in 2016 is misleading, because we had more limited spots than usual).
Star Ratings Aren't Everything, but They Are Something. Star-gazing is a mistake and there have been plenty of Top 5 teams in college football without top 5 or top 10 classes. For instance, Clemson has the #17 class in 2014 (pretty similar to ours in 2016) and just won a national title. Oregon under Chip Kelly made a living with classes generally ranked #21 - #30. Evaluation is more important than stars. That said, there is certainly a connection over the long-run with top rated players and wins for most coaches.
Keep on Recruiting. The fact that we lost a few big battles concerns me a bit. Hoping we can re-establish ourselves on the recruiting trail for 2018. We already have a 5-star O-lineman and a 4-star athlete committed, but I'd definitely like to see an uptick in recruiting again.
Miscellany
The AD search is a trainwreck. Seriously. I think people consistently underestimate how much the AD impacts college football performance. It's no coincidence that our performance declined under Mike Hamilton and it's no coincidence that LSU's performance has declined under Joe Alleva (who is also a terrible AD). Fortunately, we don't have a bad AD --- but we do have a bad situation loaded with uncertainty. I don't know WTF is going on, but hoping it gets figured out soon.
5-1. For the record, we're 5-1 whenever I have worn this t-shirt. Just saying. Wins over VT, Florida, UGA, Mizzou, and Nebraska. The shirt's one loss came to A&M in OT.
GBO!
Can't wait for the next football season. Guess it's time that I disappear for about 5 months
Evaluating Butch
Dooley's Dumpster Fire. In order to honestly evaluate Butch, we must first acknowledge that he inherited a certifiable "dumpster fire." Dooley failed to recruit at nearly every position and left Jones with the thinnest O-line in the entire SEC in 2014. That was hardly Dooley's only failure, however, as he destroyed our team mentally. How many games did our guys simply give up as soon as they fell behind by 1 score? In Dooley's last two seasons, we finished 11th out of 12 in the SEC in 2011 and 12th out of 14 in 2012.
Revival. Butch had a tough rebuilding job, but did an excellent job recruiting new players to the program and turning around the team's mindset. The program is in much better shape in 2017 than it was in 2012 when Butch took over.
Mixed Success. We failed to make a bowl game in 2013, but that was forgivable given our lack of skill players. We did make a lower-tier bowl game in 2014 and Butch deserves credit for that. While we lost a lot of close games in 2015, I still feel that the '15 team significantly outperformed in many ways, and got a huge bowl win. The 2016 team was a disappointment, but we were still 9-4 with a good bowl win. Overall, in the past two seasons, we've probably been about the 3rd or 4th best team in the SEC, which is a dramatic improvement from where we were.
Can Butch "Dabo" or Has He Hit His Ceiling? This is the real question IMO. Butch has a lot in common with Dabo Swinney, who I'll remind you, just won a national championship at Clemson. Dabo was not an instant success, and didn't have big success till his 5th season at Clemson, after he had replaced both his OC (after 3rd season) and his DC (after 4th season). Dabo made great hires after that, recruited spectacularly (including DeShaun Watson), and has built an outstanding program. Can Butch "Dabo" or has he hit the ceiling?
Butch is a Solid "B" So Far. Thus far in his career, I think we can give Butch a solid "B" for turning the program around, getting us competitive again, and 3 impressive bowl wins. This is similar to Dabo at the same time, as well.
The 2016 Season
National Title Defense Turns to Giant Sieve. Everyone is down on our defense, but I'm the contrarian. Here's the thing: our "D" played like a national title contender in the early season against Virginia Tech, App State, and Florida (2nd Half). The performance declined significantly after that and turned horrendous by November as we gave up 36 versus Kentucky, 37 to Mizzou, and 45 to Vandy. That's unacceptable, but we also have to remember that we experienced a massive number of injuries, particularly on the D-line and in the LB corps. Compound that with our fast-paced, turnover-prone offense, which forces our defense to play more snaps than most other teams, and you have a recipe for disaster. So what's the verdict? I'd have to say "unknown." Bob Shoop has an excellent track record historically, but all the injuries really hurt us late 2016.
Jekyll / Hyde Offense. At the end of the season, most of VN was happy about our offense, but once again, I'm a bit of the contrarian here. I think our offense really came on at the end of the season, but significantly underperformed at several points in the year. Our offensive performance was absolutely horrid versus App State, we struggled against VT (but the "D" won that game), and we struggled against Ohio. We had a great performances versus UGA and put up a lot of points versus A&M (albeit, counteracted in some ways by a huge # of turnovers). Then we played terrible versus Bama, South Carolina, and only scored 3 points in the 2nd half versus Vandy. Sure, our points per game and yardage stats look great, but they were overwhelmingly put up in a few games and those stats ignore the turnover issues (as well as all the help the "O" got from the "D" with turnovers). I'd give our offense a "B" on the year, but until we play with more consistency, we're not going to be elite.
When the Two Halves Play Well. But think about it. Our offense played spectacularly at times this year (versus Florida, Mizzou, UGA, Nebraska) and our defense played spectacularly at times this year (versus VT, App State, Florida). The only time it felt like the two "came together" at the same time was the 2nd half of that Florida game. So we saw flashes of brilliance on both sides of the ball; just rarely at the same time.
Strength & Conditioning. S&C was a huge issue all year and I continue to believe that this was our biggest problem in the 2016 season. With the Rock Gullickson hiring, I'm hoping we get those issues sorted out. It seemed noticeable all season that we seemed like we were in worse shape than in 2015, particularly on the O-line. Then, all the injuries on D seemed to further substantiate this.
The New Hires
Rock Gullickson. Already mentioned it, but I think this is a very good hire. Hopefully, we can get S&C back to the level it was in 2015.
Brady Hoke. I give this hire an "A." Hoke may not have succeeded at Michigan, but he did transform the defense during his first two seasons and molded excellent defenses at Ball State and San Diego State as well. Brady's failures at Michigan had more to do with lack of offensive identity than anything. I wouldn't necessarily consider this hire an "upgrade" because Stripling was a great coach, as well, but Hoke's a great replacement and may even be a slight improvement.
Charlton Warren. Another "A" hire. Warren significantly improved UNC's secondary during his two years there. Warren is definitely an upgrade over Willie Martinez, who was our "weakest link" among the defensive coaches.
Larry Scott. This wasn't the Mark Helfrich "home run hire" I was rooting for, but I still like it. Some have criticized the Scott hire because he's never been an OC before, but neither were David Cutcliffe or Phillip Fulmer when we hired them. Scott is an accomplished coach. We'll have to see how it plays out, but I'm optimistic that he'll succeed in the role.
Mike Canales. On the face of it, this is a questionable hire, but not necessarily bad. Let's start out by saying that Canales coached Phillip Rivers at NC State and has been an OC for several years, so hiring him as a QB coach makes some sense. Still, he's more of a "wild card" than a lot of other coaches. It's difficult to know how he'll adapt to the SEC given that he hasn't coached at P5 school at all in the past 10 years. However, I have no reason to doubt Butch on this one either.
Walt Wells. Another "wait-and-see" hire for me. Wells has plenty of experience coaching O-line at G5 schools. He was OC at South Florida under Willie Taggart, as well, during the 2013 season when USF went 2-10. He was fired after the 2014 season. Difficult to evaluate him based on this. While he "failed" at USF, it was a situation where it would've been difficult for anyone to have succeeded (similar to us in 2013) However, the obvious criticism here is that we're hiring Willie Taggart's rejects. I don't know if this is an upgrade or not, but O-line has been our biggest weakness on offense for much of the past 3 years.
The 2017 Season
Expectations are Low. Remember in 1997 when many media folk declared us a national title contender and then in 1998 when we were supposed to be an 8-3 type borderline top 25 team? Well, the '98 won the national title and the '97 team was very good, but finished the season ranked #8 after a huge blowout loss to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. Also remember 2005 when we were supposed to be a national title contender and went 5-6? Meanwhile, in 2007, we were supposed to be down and won the SEC East. All I'm saying is, media expectations are often wrong. There were sky-high expectations for the 2016 team and I don't think we could've possibly met them. There were numerous commentators predicting we'd make the playoff or go 11-1. For 2017, expectations are sort of low, and maybe that's a good thing.
We Still Have a Lot of Talent. We lose Josh Dobbs and Alvin Kamara, but we have several great QBs in the running to take the starting job, and we have many options at RB. Our O-line should get better. While we lose a few key defensive players, we still have a load of talent on the line. Hopefully, we don't get decimated by injuries again this year, and we see the secondary improve under Coach Warren.
Look for Progress. I'm not predicting we'll win the SEC or anything, but I'm optimistic that we'll see some progress next season. Another 9 win season is not out of the question, and 10 wins (including bowl game) isn't completely unreasonable. Depending on how things play out, we still have a shot to win the SEC East. Don't hang Butch if we finish 2nd in the SEC East, though, and go 10-3 or 9-4 with a good bowl win.
Recruiting
The 2017 Class. The 2017 class was good, but we dropped off a bit from where we were. Nothing to be ashamed of with a #16 class on 247Sports, but consider that we had the #4 class in 2015 when we had similar numbers (our #14 class in 2016 is misleading, because we had more limited spots than usual).
Star Ratings Aren't Everything, but They Are Something. Star-gazing is a mistake and there have been plenty of Top 5 teams in college football without top 5 or top 10 classes. For instance, Clemson has the #17 class in 2014 (pretty similar to ours in 2016) and just won a national title. Oregon under Chip Kelly made a living with classes generally ranked #21 - #30. Evaluation is more important than stars. That said, there is certainly a connection over the long-run with top rated players and wins for most coaches.
Keep on Recruiting. The fact that we lost a few big battles concerns me a bit. Hoping we can re-establish ourselves on the recruiting trail for 2018. We already have a 5-star O-lineman and a 4-star athlete committed, but I'd definitely like to see an uptick in recruiting again.
Miscellany
The AD search is a trainwreck. Seriously. I think people consistently underestimate how much the AD impacts college football performance. It's no coincidence that our performance declined under Mike Hamilton and it's no coincidence that LSU's performance has declined under Joe Alleva (who is also a terrible AD). Fortunately, we don't have a bad AD --- but we do have a bad situation loaded with uncertainty. I don't know WTF is going on, but hoping it gets figured out soon.
5-1. For the record, we're 5-1 whenever I have worn this t-shirt. Just saying. Wins over VT, Florida, UGA, Mizzou, and Nebraska. The shirt's one loss came to A&M in OT.
GBO!
Can't wait for the next football season. Guess it's time that I disappear for about 5 months
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