DG's Completely Unscientific Game-by-Game Preview

#26
#26
Crazy Ivan said:
Good analysis, DG.

My comments and odds of winning adjustments on the 4 game stretch.

Florida
Odds of Winning: 65%
I don't know that we are really more talented than the gators; I think our advantage is in having more experienced talent.

@ Georgia
Odds of Winning: 60%
The Dawgs are extremely talented, but they have a new HC, a new OC, a new DC, a new QB, and some big questions on the OL and in their Front 7. Chubb and Michel, assuming both are healthy, will be a handful, but like last season, I don't think UGA will be able to slow down our offense at all.


@ Texas A&M.
Odds of Winning: 50%
If Chavis figures out how to get that defense to stop the run (depends on if he finds some answers in the LB corp), and if Trevor Knight is able to be a more complete QB, then UT's odds of winning could go down to about 45% because TAMU has some serious talent all around.

Alabama.
Odds of Winning: 50%
If Bama's new QB, whomever it may be, is comfortable by the UT game, then UT's odds of winning could also decrease to between 40-45%, because like TAMU, the QB is going to have some serious talent at WR and TE to throw the ball to.
Click to expand...

That 4 week stretch is absolutely brutal. I still hate the schedule makers for it
 
#28
#28
jakez4ut said:
i'm reading this and trying to figure out what i should post.

not sure about the science, or lack thereof...:) but i do think that fans in general tend to look at schedules in whole, and not as singular parts...i know i do.

there's not a single game, in and of itself that i don't think we could win.

but you start stringing them together, consecutively like has happened this year, and you start to say "no way we can win all four of those in a row".

rather, we rationalize...4-0 is fantasy...3-1 outstanding....2-2 would be good.

but then we can't leave it at that...now we start playing the "which 2? game and wind up driving ourselves nuts.

so, for me, putting the science to the side....i say you beat FLorida and then start worrying about the rest of the schedule. right now, i can't get myself to worry about the rest of the games, until/unless we beat FL.

and that's not to say it's the most important game or it's a make or break game, but it is to say that i do believe starting that stretch off wiht a win is important.

momentum and confidence is what this team will need. we failed to do that for ourselves last year, and it translated in to hangovers....

so...let's beat FL and just see what we can do with the rest of the schedule.:thumbsup:
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Are is how I look at the 4 game "murderous row" in the middle of the season.

We will have a better offense and a better defense than we had last year. UF will not be as good as last year especially on defense because of players graduating and their offense will suffer without an experienced QB and average Rbs. Ugh will be about as they were last year and will not be a problem, A&M is likely to be better than last year bur still not they were 2-3 years ago and should third in the SECW. Mama will not be as good this year but will be the strongest team we play. We led into the 4th quarter and should have won the game. We get home field advantage.

I expect we win UF, UGa, and most likely A&M. If we can avoid injuries at Qb and OL, we have a very good chance to sweep these 4 games. Special teams could play a very important part in A&M and Bama.
 
#29
#29
ok my take on all there percentage of winning computers and prognosticators use these to predict games. I think and its just my thinking is if shoop can get the defense to playing to their potential and can make in game adjustments then ut has the advantage on offence names ly hurd kamara and dobbs can an defense stop those three
 
#30
#30
DiderotsGhost said:
Florida.

Odds of Winning: 72%
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Hm Hm Hm, Ha Ha Ha, BAHHHHHHH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA, BAH HA HA HAAHHHH!!!!!

Angry? GOOD!, cause that's what it's going to take!
 

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#33
#33
VOLINVONORE said:
Are is how I look at the 4 game "murderous row" in the middle of the season.

We will have a better offense and a better defense than we had last year. UF will not be as good as last year especially on defense because of players graduating and their offense will suffer without an experienced QB and average Rbs. Ugh will be about as they were last year and will not be a problem, A&M is likely to be better than last year bur still not they were 2-3 years ago and should third in the SECW. Mama will not be as good this year but will be the strongest team we play. We led into the 4th quarter and should have won the game. We get home field advantage.

I expect we win UF, UGa, and most likely A&M. If we can avoid injuries at Qb and OL, we have a very good chance to sweep these 4 games. Special teams could play a very important part in A&M and Bama.
Click to expand...

i think of the 4, aTm, GA and FL are more winnable than Bama.

that said, setting aside the mental hurdle FL represents, there is some truth to the fact that they won't suck. i think FL is, at worst, an 8 win team. their defense may not be as good as last year's, but that was an all world, elite defense....so the bar is set pretty high, again, they'll be good.

and the question is the qb...is it reall addition by subtraction? who knows. CJM though is a good offensive coach, and i expect FL to be plenty competitive w/anyone they play.

GA and aTm on the road is tough for anyone, and both have question marks.....depending on who gets the right answers to those questions, may dictate how either/both of those games go.

so again....i get back to let's just beat FL and see what we can do the rest of the way. just by beating FL, it opens the door to bigger/better things for each game we play after that.....
 
#34
#34
People are overrating UGA, good recruiting isn't everything. Their front 7 was average at best last year, they lost Ganus, Floyd, Jenkins. Yes their secondary was rated the best but it was inflated due to all the poor passing teams they played... They gave up 300 passing to Dobbs. They won't be able to stop our ground game. Ppl are also underrating florida, their roster is overall better this year. We have more of a chance to lose to florida than UGA imo. I think we beat both though.

Btw, vegas projected 4.5 wins in 2013 we won 5. In 2014 they projected 5.5 we won 6. In 2015 they projected 7.5 we won 8. In 2016? We are projected 9.5 so 10 wins is a safe bet imo
 
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