DiderotsGhost
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Its been a long time since I posted here on VN. For all that are interested (and bored waiting for the season to start), heres my worthless, completely unscientific, but marginally mathematically synopsis of the upcoming season, game-by-game.
Would love to hear everyone else's take on the season as well.
Appalachian State.
Appy State is underrated. This is a team that went 11-2 last year, with a bowl win, and finished #60 in the Sagarin ratings. That puts Appy State ahead of South Carolina and Mizzou, but behind Bowling Green and Memphis. Speaking of BG, this game might be pretty similar. App State had a great offense last year but gave up a lot of points to higher quality competition. Appy State is certainly capable of giving us a fight, but on a talent basis, were much better than them. Its a game we could lose if we come in unprepared, but Butch Jones has always our guys ready to compete on opening day. I expect us to win.
Odds of Winning: 93%
Virginia Tech.
Justin Fuente is one of the best coaches in college football; he proved that at Memphis by turning around one of the worst programs in all of I-A college football. During the Frank Beamer years, VT perpetually overachieved on defense and perpetually underachieved on offense. Bud Foster is one of the best DCs in the nation. Fuente is one of the best offensive minds in the game. Given this combo, VT could be a force to be reckoned with very soon. Nevertheless, Fuente will only be coaching his 2nd game at VT and it will take time to get the system working and bring in the players to make it work.
The caveat, however, is that this will be a weird game. Theres never been an atmosphere in a college football game like the one that well see at the Battle at Bristol. There will be a crowd of over 150,000 people, but the fans will also be much further removed from the players than typical, creating a potentially a very odd game environment. Its difficult to say how the playing surface will impact things, as well.
We should be favored to win, but this will be a very "different" game, with many wildcards that we cant predict. Nevertheless, I am glad that we are playing VT now rather than 3 years from now. The Justin Fuente hire was one of the best of the off-season IMO.
I think we win, but tough to say whether it will be close or a blowout without seeing this Fuente-coached VT team in action at least once.
Odds of Winning: 80%
Ohio.
I wont lie: I dont know much about Ohio U, but I dont expect us to lose. Ohios not a bad team and they actually lost to Appy State by 2 points in their bowl game last season. However, Sagarin had Appy State at #60 and Ohio at #95. Ohio finished last season at 8-5. Hope our players dont overlook this game, but Id be surprised if we lost.
Odds of Winning: 99%
Florida.
The streak sucks, but lets be honest: this is the first year in a very long time where we have superior talent to Florida. As much as Vol fans bemoan the losses the past two seasons, we really outperformed expectations in terms of talent in both of those games.
As leery as I am of predicting a victory, I have to think were the favorites this year, and that we should win this game. The media underrated Florida last year, ignoring the immense talent on defense. This year, I think the media is overrating Florida a bit. That said, this game is never easy. My prediction is we win big this year.
Odds of Winning: 72%
@ Georgia.
Dont underestimate Georgia. In terms of talent, Georgia is the only team in the SEC East that is on par with us. Georgia has underperformed for years. If Kirby Smart gets this team playing to its talent level, UGA will be very difficult to beat. Indeed, Georgia in 2016 may be in a similar position as Florida in 2015, with the media dramatically underestimating the talent on the team.
That said, the QB position is still a huge question mark for UGA. Jacob Eason was a big-time recruit, but hes also a true Freshman, and its difficult to think of too many true Freshmen QBs that didnt struggle a bit early on (even Peyton Manning struggled early in his Freshman season). Overall, because of our superior QB situation, I think we have a slight edge in terms of talent. Georgia has the home field advantage, however, so Ill say this is a 50-50 toss-up type of game. Regardless, IMO, this is a must-win game if we want to go to the SEC Championship.
Odds of Winning: 50%
@ Texas A&M.
A&M may be the most underrated team in the SEC going into the season. This team is absolutely loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Kevin Sumlin is an offensive mastermind. With John Chavis in his 2nd season now, I think that defense starts to produce, particularly with the talent they have on D-line. A&M has the potential to sneak up on the SEC West and win it this year. This is a team that is talented enough to beat us and were playing them during the middle of a brutal stretch on the road sandwiched between Georgia and Bama. Thats not good for us.
On the other hand, I think we match up well against A&M. Last year, I predicted wed lose to Arkansas not because Arkansas was the better team, but because we didnt match up well against them. This year with A&M, I think its the reverse. Chaviss defense is really built around putting pressure on the passer. Its weakness is stopping overwhelming rushing attacks. Guess what we have? The 3-headed monster: Dobbs, Hurd, and Kamara.
That said, the game is in College Station and A&M will be very hungry for a win. It will not be easy. Im going to call this another 50-50 game.
Odds of Winning: 50%
Alabama.
There are only 3 teams on the schedule this year that are on par with us in terms of talent. Alabama is the only one Id say that has a clear advantage. Yet, we played them close last year, and even gave them a scare two years ago after making a big comeback. We play in Knoxville this year. Not going to be an easy game, but I can guarantee our guys will be very hungry and very prepared for this game. This is another 50-50 toss-up.
Odds of Winning: 50%
@ South Carolina.
We have beaten South Carolina three years in a row now, but last years game was ugly for us and we were fortunate to escape with the W. For whatever reason, these guys seem to play us close regardless of talent level. Once again, I have to think were big favorites vs SCe, but after playing a stretch that includes Florida, UGA, A&M, and Bama, there always has to be some concern that well have a letdown in a game like this.
Odds of Winning: 82%
Tennessee Tech.
We win. No need for any real analysis. Tn-Tech is a I-AA school and finished 2015 ranked #203 in the Sagarin ratings with a 4-7 record. The only surprise here would be if you dont see our 2nd and 3rd string in the game by the 3rd Quarter.
Odds of Winning: 99.9%
Kentucky.
Mark Stoops deserves some credit as hes significantly improved the talent level at Kentucky. He pulled off a win against Mizzou last year and nearly beat Florida. Yet, this Kentucky looked severely overmatched last season against us and that game was in Lexington. We win big again.
Odds of Winning: 92%
Missouri.
Missouri outperformed their talent level for years under Gary Pinkel. Now that Mizzou has a new head coach, its possible that they experience a drop-off. Of course, the drop-off actually started last season when Mizzou went 5-7. I still expect this defense to be pretty good, but I also wouldnt be shocked if Mizzou finishes last in the East this year. They gave us some troubles with their D last year, but couldnt score against our D. Nothing is impossible, but I think we beat Mizzou handily in Knoxville.
Odds of Winning: 94%
@ Vanderbilt.
In our late season stretch, this is the game that would actually worry me the most. Derek Mason hasnt had much success in his two seasons at Vandy, but he has surprisingly managed to build one of the best defenses in the conference. We have the better team obviously, but under certain circumstances, I could see Vandy giving us a hard time. Similar to the Mizzou game last year, I wouldnt be surprised if we win in a low-scoring ugly, boring affair.
Odds of Winning: 84%
Weighted Average Win Loss Record:
9.46 2.54
Based on my "completely unscientific" probabilities, I come up with a weighted-average win total of 9.46 for us.
Overall Analysis.
Obviously, we cant win 9.46 games, but I view a 10-2 or 9-3 season as most likely.
What this math tells me though is that realistically speaking, even if were one of the best teams in America, were going to have a difficult time doing better than 10-2. Our end record is going to come down to how we finish games. It could make the difference between 11-1 and 8-4, but I see a 10-2 or 9-3 type season as most likely.
We do have one of the most brutal stretches in all of college football with Florida, @ UGA, @ A&M, and vs Bama. We also have a number of games outside that stretch that while we might be the better team, we could still have some issues if were not playing our A game. Vanderbilt will be fired up for us, as will South Carolina. Virginia Tech could be a tougher game than expected, as well.
That said, were capable of winning every game on this schedule. The Georgia game will also be absolutely critical. A loss to Georgia makes winning the East difficult for us IMO, particularly given that our SEC West schedule is tougher than the other East teams. Whereas, even if we lost to A&M and Bama (god forbid), we could still win the East with wins over UGa and Florida. We'd likely get a re-match in the SEC Championship game and have an outside shot at the playoff.
I'm optimistic, but I don't want to get carried away given the brutal schedule. Even if this is the best squad we've had in over a decade, it's still going to be a tough road to hit 10-2 (or better).
Can't wait for the season to start!
Would love to hear everyone else's take on the season as well.
Appalachian State.
Appy State is underrated. This is a team that went 11-2 last year, with a bowl win, and finished #60 in the Sagarin ratings. That puts Appy State ahead of South Carolina and Mizzou, but behind Bowling Green and Memphis. Speaking of BG, this game might be pretty similar. App State had a great offense last year but gave up a lot of points to higher quality competition. Appy State is certainly capable of giving us a fight, but on a talent basis, were much better than them. Its a game we could lose if we come in unprepared, but Butch Jones has always our guys ready to compete on opening day. I expect us to win.
Odds of Winning: 93%
Virginia Tech.
Justin Fuente is one of the best coaches in college football; he proved that at Memphis by turning around one of the worst programs in all of I-A college football. During the Frank Beamer years, VT perpetually overachieved on defense and perpetually underachieved on offense. Bud Foster is one of the best DCs in the nation. Fuente is one of the best offensive minds in the game. Given this combo, VT could be a force to be reckoned with very soon. Nevertheless, Fuente will only be coaching his 2nd game at VT and it will take time to get the system working and bring in the players to make it work.
The caveat, however, is that this will be a weird game. Theres never been an atmosphere in a college football game like the one that well see at the Battle at Bristol. There will be a crowd of over 150,000 people, but the fans will also be much further removed from the players than typical, creating a potentially a very odd game environment. Its difficult to say how the playing surface will impact things, as well.
We should be favored to win, but this will be a very "different" game, with many wildcards that we cant predict. Nevertheless, I am glad that we are playing VT now rather than 3 years from now. The Justin Fuente hire was one of the best of the off-season IMO.
I think we win, but tough to say whether it will be close or a blowout without seeing this Fuente-coached VT team in action at least once.
Odds of Winning: 80%
Ohio.
I wont lie: I dont know much about Ohio U, but I dont expect us to lose. Ohios not a bad team and they actually lost to Appy State by 2 points in their bowl game last season. However, Sagarin had Appy State at #60 and Ohio at #95. Ohio finished last season at 8-5. Hope our players dont overlook this game, but Id be surprised if we lost.
Odds of Winning: 99%
Florida.
The streak sucks, but lets be honest: this is the first year in a very long time where we have superior talent to Florida. As much as Vol fans bemoan the losses the past two seasons, we really outperformed expectations in terms of talent in both of those games.
As leery as I am of predicting a victory, I have to think were the favorites this year, and that we should win this game. The media underrated Florida last year, ignoring the immense talent on defense. This year, I think the media is overrating Florida a bit. That said, this game is never easy. My prediction is we win big this year.
Odds of Winning: 72%
@ Georgia.
Dont underestimate Georgia. In terms of talent, Georgia is the only team in the SEC East that is on par with us. Georgia has underperformed for years. If Kirby Smart gets this team playing to its talent level, UGA will be very difficult to beat. Indeed, Georgia in 2016 may be in a similar position as Florida in 2015, with the media dramatically underestimating the talent on the team.
That said, the QB position is still a huge question mark for UGA. Jacob Eason was a big-time recruit, but hes also a true Freshman, and its difficult to think of too many true Freshmen QBs that didnt struggle a bit early on (even Peyton Manning struggled early in his Freshman season). Overall, because of our superior QB situation, I think we have a slight edge in terms of talent. Georgia has the home field advantage, however, so Ill say this is a 50-50 toss-up type of game. Regardless, IMO, this is a must-win game if we want to go to the SEC Championship.
Odds of Winning: 50%
@ Texas A&M.
A&M may be the most underrated team in the SEC going into the season. This team is absolutely loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Kevin Sumlin is an offensive mastermind. With John Chavis in his 2nd season now, I think that defense starts to produce, particularly with the talent they have on D-line. A&M has the potential to sneak up on the SEC West and win it this year. This is a team that is talented enough to beat us and were playing them during the middle of a brutal stretch on the road sandwiched between Georgia and Bama. Thats not good for us.
On the other hand, I think we match up well against A&M. Last year, I predicted wed lose to Arkansas not because Arkansas was the better team, but because we didnt match up well against them. This year with A&M, I think its the reverse. Chaviss defense is really built around putting pressure on the passer. Its weakness is stopping overwhelming rushing attacks. Guess what we have? The 3-headed monster: Dobbs, Hurd, and Kamara.
That said, the game is in College Station and A&M will be very hungry for a win. It will not be easy. Im going to call this another 50-50 game.
Odds of Winning: 50%
Alabama.
There are only 3 teams on the schedule this year that are on par with us in terms of talent. Alabama is the only one Id say that has a clear advantage. Yet, we played them close last year, and even gave them a scare two years ago after making a big comeback. We play in Knoxville this year. Not going to be an easy game, but I can guarantee our guys will be very hungry and very prepared for this game. This is another 50-50 toss-up.
Odds of Winning: 50%
@ South Carolina.
We have beaten South Carolina three years in a row now, but last years game was ugly for us and we were fortunate to escape with the W. For whatever reason, these guys seem to play us close regardless of talent level. Once again, I have to think were big favorites vs SCe, but after playing a stretch that includes Florida, UGA, A&M, and Bama, there always has to be some concern that well have a letdown in a game like this.
Odds of Winning: 82%
Tennessee Tech.
We win. No need for any real analysis. Tn-Tech is a I-AA school and finished 2015 ranked #203 in the Sagarin ratings with a 4-7 record. The only surprise here would be if you dont see our 2nd and 3rd string in the game by the 3rd Quarter.
Odds of Winning: 99.9%
Kentucky.
Mark Stoops deserves some credit as hes significantly improved the talent level at Kentucky. He pulled off a win against Mizzou last year and nearly beat Florida. Yet, this Kentucky looked severely overmatched last season against us and that game was in Lexington. We win big again.
Odds of Winning: 92%
Missouri.
Missouri outperformed their talent level for years under Gary Pinkel. Now that Mizzou has a new head coach, its possible that they experience a drop-off. Of course, the drop-off actually started last season when Mizzou went 5-7. I still expect this defense to be pretty good, but I also wouldnt be shocked if Mizzou finishes last in the East this year. They gave us some troubles with their D last year, but couldnt score against our D. Nothing is impossible, but I think we beat Mizzou handily in Knoxville.
Odds of Winning: 94%
@ Vanderbilt.
In our late season stretch, this is the game that would actually worry me the most. Derek Mason hasnt had much success in his two seasons at Vandy, but he has surprisingly managed to build one of the best defenses in the conference. We have the better team obviously, but under certain circumstances, I could see Vandy giving us a hard time. Similar to the Mizzou game last year, I wouldnt be surprised if we win in a low-scoring ugly, boring affair.
Odds of Winning: 84%
Weighted Average Win Loss Record:
9.46 2.54
Based on my "completely unscientific" probabilities, I come up with a weighted-average win total of 9.46 for us.
Overall Analysis.
Obviously, we cant win 9.46 games, but I view a 10-2 or 9-3 season as most likely.
What this math tells me though is that realistically speaking, even if were one of the best teams in America, were going to have a difficult time doing better than 10-2. Our end record is going to come down to how we finish games. It could make the difference between 11-1 and 8-4, but I see a 10-2 or 9-3 type season as most likely.
We do have one of the most brutal stretches in all of college football with Florida, @ UGA, @ A&M, and vs Bama. We also have a number of games outside that stretch that while we might be the better team, we could still have some issues if were not playing our A game. Vanderbilt will be fired up for us, as will South Carolina. Virginia Tech could be a tougher game than expected, as well.
That said, were capable of winning every game on this schedule. The Georgia game will also be absolutely critical. A loss to Georgia makes winning the East difficult for us IMO, particularly given that our SEC West schedule is tougher than the other East teams. Whereas, even if we lost to A&M and Bama (god forbid), we could still win the East with wins over UGa and Florida. We'd likely get a re-match in the SEC Championship game and have an outside shot at the playoff.
I'm optimistic, but I don't want to get carried away given the brutal schedule. Even if this is the best squad we've had in over a decade, it's still going to be a tough road to hit 10-2 (or better).
Can't wait for the season to start!
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