Decent article on expectations

#76
#76
You guys really think Arkansas isn't going to be good? Their QB is back, I think most if not all of their oline returns, and at the very least Alex Collins is returning at tailback. That is a potent offense. Their defense will be alright. Don't know too much about it other than flowers is leaving. I don't consider that a win and I lean towards it being a loss.
 
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#77
#77
BeattieFeathers said:
People and even our own fans don't realize how big of an impact josh Dobbs will make.
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To make that big impact, he's going to need a solid, well coached offensive line protecting him instead of running for his life as both he and Worley did this year. If the coaching staff doesn't address all the stunting and blitzing teams are surely going to throw at us again next year that is not going to happen.
 
#78
#78
1972 Grad said:
We SHOULD win 3 of our 4 out of conference games ( Bowling Green, Western Carolina, and North Texas State). We SHOULD win at least 2 of our conference games (Vanderbilt and Kentucky). So that gets to 5 wins. That leaves 7 games.

Our other out of conference game is Oklahoma. In the SEC West, we play Alabama and Arkansas. Our other 4 SEC East opponents are So. Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, and Florida. I don't see any SHOULD wins. I see some POSSIBLE wins, but it's been awhile since we've beaten any of them, except South Carolina. Arkansas will be a handful. I am GUESSING 7-5, maybe 8-4.
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You really think we're going 2-5 against Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and Missouri? With four home games among those seven opponents, and so many of them losing so much talent and experience to graduation or the NFL draft? With Florida rebuilding with a new no-name coach? With us returning almost every starter from our bowl game and a new top-5 recruiting class with a bunch of stud defensive lineman?

Here are the percentage odds I see of us winning each game on our 2015 schedule:

v. Bowling Green (95%)
v. Oklahoma (40%)
v. Western Carolina (100%)
@ Florida (66%)
v. Arkansas (80%)
v. Georgia (33%)
**Bye Week**
@ Alabama (10%)
@ Kentucky (95%)
v. South Carolina (80%)
v. North Texas (100%)
@ Missouri (66%)
v. Vanderbilt (100%)

If you multiple those percentages by each game and add them up, we should win 8.65 games. In other words, the over/under line for wins next season is 8.5 wins, with 9 wins being slightly above expectations and 8 wins being slightly below expectations.

And take a closer look at that schedule. We should be favored in every SEC East division game except Georgia. With Georgia playing against us in Neyland stadium, playing Alabama and Auburn from the SEC West, and Mark Richt's tendency to inexplicably lose several winnable games every season, we have a very good shot at winning the SEC East.

I think we go 9-3 overall with a 6-2 SEC record to win the East next year. In 2016, we'll be in the conversation for the playoffs.
 
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#79
#79
AboveAllNations said:
You really think we're going 2-5 against Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and Missouri? With four home games among those seven opponents, and so many of them losing so much talent and experience to graduation or the NFL draft? With Florida rebuilding with a new no-name coach? With us returning almost every starter from our bowl game and a new top-5 recruiting class with a bunch of stud defensive lineman?

Here are the percentage odds I see of us winning each game on our 2015 schedule:

v. Bowling Green (95%)
v. Oklahoma (40%)
v. Western Carolina (100%)
@ Florida (66%)
v. Arkansas (80%)
v. Georgia (33%)
**Bye Week**
@ Alabama (10%)
@ Kentucky (95%)
v. South Carolina (80%)
v. North Texas (100%)
@ Missouri (66%)
v. Vanderbilt (100%)

If you multiple those percentages by each game and add them up, we should win 8.65 games. In other words, the over/under line for wins next season is 8.5 wins, with 9 wins being slightly above expectations and 8 wins being slightly below expectations.

And take a closer look at that schedule. We should be favored in every SEC East division game except Georgia. With Georgia playing against us in Neyland stadium, playing Alabama and Auburn from the SEC West, and Mark Richt's tendency to inexplicably lose several winnable games every season, we have a very good shot at winning the SEC East.

I think we go 9-3 overall with a 6-2 SEC record to win the East next year. In 2016, we'll be in the conversation for the playoffs.
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I think that you are about 20% high on everybody except Arkansas and South Carolina, where you are about 30-35% high.

Edit: I forgot to add that you are probably in the ballpark on Alabama and Georgia.
 
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#80
#80
McDad said:
I'm with 72 Grad on this (he and i had our differences this year). I think you are being overly optimistic. I would love to see what you suggest, though. How's this, i CAN see what you project i just DOUBT it is reasonable to expect it.
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What did we have differences over this year? Sometimes , I fail to look at and remember the poster's name.
I apologize if I was too argumentative, but I have said things on here and people decide I said this when I meant that. Then, I get ganged up on , and get defensive. It happened again on the Stuart Scott thread with a couple of people.

If you ever wonder what I mean by a statement, just ask. That will not make me mad in the least.
 
#81
#81
lonelawyer said:
Looking at next year's schedule: There should be 5 games where we are double digit favorites. Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Kentucky, North Texas and Vandy.

Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina and Missouri fall into the pick em category. 2-2 should be expected and 3-1 is not ridiculous. That gives us either 7 or 8 wins.

Oklahoma and Georgia will both be favored, but are both winnable games. Both are at home. Shouldn't we win one of them? That gives us 8 or 9.

Alabama will be Alabama but will not have Amari Cooper or Blake Sims and may not have Yeldon, either. Also, Bama's defense has problems. I'm not saying we beat them, but stranger things have happened.

8-4 should be expected. 9-3 is realistic. 10-2 is possible.

7-5? Then Butch probably isn't the answer.
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I agree with everything except that last sentence...I don't think you can pass final judgement on Butch until after 2016...enough can't be said about running RS Juniors and Seniors out there vs. Freshmen and Sophomores, IMO
 
#82
#82
1972 Grad said:
What did we have differences over this year? Sometimes , I fail to look at and remember the poster's name.
I apologize if I was too argumentative, but I have said things on here and people decide I said this when I meant that. Then, I get ganged up on , and get defensive. It happened again on the Stuart Scott thread with a couple of people.

If you ever wonder what I mean by a statement, just ask. That will not make me mad in the least.
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No biggie. Water under bridge.

Just try to behave yourself from now on. ;)
 
#84
#84
bhouston79 said:
I disagree. We will have the talent to compete for the East next year. Given the talent we already have and the talent we are bringing in with two back to back highly rated recruiting classes, we will almost certainly improve. However, how much we improve is going to give us a good indication as to whether Butch Jones is a Jim Donovan/Bo Pelini type coach who can only take our team to a certain level of success or whether he can be a Nick Saban/Urban Meyer type coach who can have us competing for championships on a regular basis.

If we win only 7 or 8 games next year, that will tend to indicate that Jones can only get us so far, and that we will not likely win championships with him at the helm. If we win 9 games, then the jury is still out. If we win 10 or more games and compete for the East and/or SEC championship, then that is a good indication that we have scored big time by landing Jones as a head coach.
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If we win 7 or 8 games next year you can honestly deduce that Butch is less likely to win championships? Based on what?
 
#85
#85
Saban and Meyer didn't follow the previous Chick that was Coaching the Vols either.. Shula could recruit with the best, and Zook handed Meyer the top rated QB in the country coming out of high school in Chris Leak, and they both were the top two in Tim Tebow's final cut...
 
#87
#87
scvolfan7 said:
You guys really think Arkansas isn't going to be good? Their QB is back, I think most if not all of their oline returns, and at the very least Alex Collins is returning at tailback. That is a potent offense. Their defense will be alright. Don't know too much about it other than flowers is leaving. I don't consider that a win and I lean towards it being a loss.
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Arkansas not a good road team. Their qb is a dud.
 
#88
#88
Vol Gunner said:
I agree with everything except that last sentence...I don't think you can pass final judgement on Butch until after 2016...enough can't be said about running RS Juniors and Seniors out there vs. Freshmen and Sophomores, IMO
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Not only that our best Olineman had a torn ACL and he graduates. We will still be playing plug and play on the line in the fall. The line still has minimal experience and no depth behind them. If we haven't learned from the lesson that freshman get ran over on the line than something's wrong. We will still have one of the least experienced lines in the SEC going against those same programs that have more depth. We also have no guarantee that Dobbs accuracy is going to improve. The WR have done nothing this year to show they can get 50/50 balls and make that big play. Hurd has not shown he can stay healthy throughout 4 quarters let alone a season. WR the same thing. To have the expectation that we should win 8 or 9 next year or Butch can't get it done is disingenuous. We may be a year more experience but so will those same teams that beat us down this year. Unless Nick Chubb develops a crack habit and loses 40 lbs he's going to be a load. Bama has one more year in Kiffins offense and the #1!class for how many years now? Butch is still rebuilding and stocking the cupboard and I believe he will get us there. But we still have to be realistic.
 
#89
#89
gunner said:
The biggest difference in the offense in the last game versus Vandy was the center Mack Crowder. Without him on the line UT really struggled to block Mizzou and Vandy. His return solidified the interior of the line and gave Dobbs the time he needed to operate the offense. He is the most underrated player on offense for UT!
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This might be the smartest thing anyone on this board has ever said.
 
#91
#91
I think 8 wins is a reasonable expectation for next year..

9-10 wins puts CBJ in COTY talk because that will probably also put us in the SECCG.

JMHO, But I do not see a single game we can not win with the talent we will have.

No way in H_ll we win them all, depth will still be an issue and injuries always have a way of screwing us somewhere along the line.

But Bama is beatable with speed and tempo.. that has been proven and no one in the east is a juggernaut. Our guys will be in revenge mode when it comes to OK and UF.

With how close we were to three more wins this year(OK, UF, UGA) with improvement we should win those types of games next year.
 
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