I'm going to assume that the 4th non-conference opponent will be an FCS team or very low-level FBS pay-to-play patsy. That should mean 3 wins. Pitt is iffy, they finished 6-5 this season and who knows if they get better next year or not. Call it a toss-up since it is in week #2. Kentucky is toss-up #2 and considering the result in 2020, that is being kind to UT. Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt have to be wins along with the 3 non-conference games to get to 7, and a split of the toss-ups means 8-4. Anything better than 8-4 looks like performing above expectation. 9-3 or better is coach of the year territory.