Like I said, it's the conservative assumption. I don't know about you guys, but I'm not all about getting my hopes up for no reason, and then have them dashed if we go 6-6. 6-6 would actually be a pretty good year, but if your hopes and expectations are too high you'll be disappointed. You have to keep perspective. I am way more confident about this staff than I was about Dooley or Butch (that isn't saying much), but that's because I have reasons for doing so. Pruitt comes from a much better pedigree than either of those guys.
Yes, in the absence of hard information to the contrary, I am assuming that after just one spring practice and fall camp, the team is, for the most part, not really any better than last year, especially because they are instituting totally new systems. I don't think they're worse, but I don't think they are better either. We just hit the reset button (again) on the program, so I don't expect marked improvement until this coaching staff has a chance to settle into a season and a normalized recruiting schedule. A lot of this information and articles you speak of are from local media and UT-centric websites. I appreciate and read the content they put out there, but they are much more likely to be seeing things through orange-colored glasses. After all, they are around the program all the time and need access to it, so they aren't going to publicly bash and cast doubts about it, especially with a brand new set of coaches they need to be on good terms with.
If it makes you feel any better, I do expect the team to improve as the season goes along, I expect Pruitt to continue to recruit well, and I expect to see continued improvement into year 2.