Actually, I know quite well what you stats guys are selling. Billy would be so proud of you. In fact it works so well that everybody is doing it and winning WS every year - right? You can't take the heat, can you daddy? Some ground rules for this conversation. I will say exactly what I think as long as it is according to VN rules and you can take your condescending comments and stick them. If you want to talk baseball, talk it. But don't pretend you know the game by spouting useless stats that are seen in the rear view mirror.
Example: Tell me why JV is worth $20+ million a year, when that $20 million exists because teams overpaid for PEDs users and aging stars that set the market expectation before the gig was up - with the club owners looking the other way as long as the cash registers were ringing and until the feds upset the gravy train. Use your calculator and figure out how much each one of his 47 RBI's are costing when the money could be allocated for real help. And don't come back with an accusation I am saying JV is using PEDs - his stats say that cannot be possible.
Actually, JV is showing signs of coming out of his power loss. So tell us all exactly how he is doing that since that will reveal real baseball knowledge. Then go on and explain how Mike Leake has made a 180 - just what has he done? I could go on with each one of them and we could see what you really know.
To the bold, in order:
1) I'm not selling anything.
2) Go read "The Extra 2%" about Andrew Friedman and numbers and how they are one of the lowest payroll teams in MLB yet have great success.
3) You were the one talking about how "stat guys" like myself know nothing when nobody said anything to you. I fired back because you obviously don't know enough nor care to know about advanced stats.
3) Well, because nobody in the world gets on base like him. Votto is worth $20M easily no matter his power numbers because he does the most important thing in the game basically better than everyone else: get on base.
4) Votto has been worth 4.3 fWAR this season. Now, if you believe what some baseball economic people tell you (and I don't think this stat is bulletproof, but I'll use it anyways), 1 win above replacement player is worth $5M. Votto actually has exceeded his $20M value already in that realm. Also, Votto has a .287 average with RISP, which is above average. So he still is doing pretty well, and compare that to his average of this year of .321, it eventually will even if he keeps up his batting average. Either way, with Votto's elite 1B D and top notch OBP, he's easily worth the $20M. He's not 2010 Votto, but he is damn good at baseball, one of the 20 best hitters in the game.
5) Leake has been keeping the ball in the park. He's also been lucky with a BABIP drop of 40 points even though his K rate and BB rate are about the same. His LOB% 8% above his career norm. His LD% is down five points, so it seems like he is inducing weaker contact. However, his FB% rate is up and his FB/HR ratio is down significantly. That usually doesn't happen, while is pitch f/x discipline is the same. Basically, he's getting weaker contact, but he's also been lucky as hell based on stats (think Jair Jurrjens in 2011).
