Could we still "Fulmer" our way into the SECCG?

#26
#26
I agree with everybody that's saying we'll prob need to move on after Bama. Granted I think we can give them a game and I hope the doubt really fuels our performance. I just don't see it happening.

I agree that with Florida in the drivers seat I am not sure how long they can hold on. I think LSU gets them and the UGA game will be close. I really hope the USCe beats them. That would be huge. I think if choosing between the 2 events USCe has a better chance to beat Florida than we have of beating Bama. Those 2 things would have to happen tho. And obviously us winning out. That's how I see it anyway. However if both events happen then we should all take cover bc we'll all get struck by lightning.
 
#27
#27
For us to get in we would first need to beat Bama, which I think is possible but certainly not probable. Then I see 2 possible but unlikely pathd to the SECCG. (1) We would need for Florida to lose 3 games, which would mean Florida losing to LSU, Georgia, and either USCe orVandy. While I could see Florida losing to LSU and Georgia, it would take a minor miracle for them to lose to either USCe or Vandy. Then again Spurrier seems to have a knack for knocking off his former team. If USCe doesn't just throw in the towel on the season, an upset is possible if Florida plays poorly. (2) Florida loses to LSU and Georgia, and TN and GA both win out resulting in a 3 way tie in both the SEC East standings. Under the new last tie breaker, it comes down to the record of each team's cross divisional opponents. In order to win that tie breaker we would need Arkansas to step up their play, Ole Miss would need to play poorly from here on out, Auburn to continue playing poorly, and an Alabama win over LSU would most likely help as well. There may be other possible scenarios, but these two seem the most likely. Both scenarios are unlikely, but I didn't think we would get in the SECCG after the loss to Alabama in 2007 either.
 
#30
#30
thehardknoxlife said:
If UGA and LSU beat Florida and UT/Georgia win out, there is a 3 way tie in which ranking determines the east champ.
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Nope, in this scenario, the records of each teams cross divisional opponents likely becomes the tie breaker under the new rules. That means we would want Arkansas to get hot; we would have to root for Alabama (except for when they play us obviously); we would want Ole Miss to collapse; LSU to lose some games; and Auburn to continue to struggle.
 
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#31
#31
bhouston79 said:
Nope, in this scenario, the records of each teams cross divisional opponents likely becomes the tie breaker under the new rules. That means we would want Arkansas to get hot; we would have to root for Alabama (except for when they play us obviously); we would want Ole Miss to collapse; LSU to lose some games; and Auburn to continue to struggle.
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Now that's the 2007 mentality I was looking for!
 
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#32
#32
pharmDvol11 said:
Is it possible that the dominoes could fall our way? If so, how would a likely scenario play our? Georgia beats Florida, etc. It's been so long since I've been able to think like this that I've completely forgot.
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I would say no. Because we can't lose another SEC game and Florida has to loose 2. We end up in a tie with Florida and the first tie breaker is head to head. That's why that Florida hurt so much.
 
#34
#34
99gator said:
I don't see Florida losing to South Carolina, Vanderbilt or Florida Atlantic....which, at worst, makes them 9-3 and is beyond anything I thought was possible.

I think the toughest game on the schedule remaining is LSU.

I don't think beating Georgia or Florida State (a home game) is out of the realm of possibility.
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At this point, UF would be favored over every remaining team excpet LSU and possibly FSU. Uga's offense wont move the ball against UFs defense.
 
#35
#35
Sorry guys I just don't see it happening. Do we really think that Florida is going to lose 3 more games?
 
#36
#36
thehardknoxlife said:
Not really. Florida would have to lose to 3 of the following teams. LSU, Georgia, Vandy, or SCarolina. Then Tennessee would have to win out. The only other way would be for them to lose to Georgia and one other SEC team then lose to FSU. Georgia and TN win out and have a 3 way tie for the east in which highest AP ranking gets the east.

Summary.

Florida loses 3 SEC games, Tennessee wins out.

Florida Georgia and Tennessee all tie in conf record. Highest poll rankings wins east.
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They changed the whole highest ranking being the last tiebreaker after the BCS was done away with. That very last tiebreaker is now the highest combined SEC record of the team's cross-divisional opponents.

You're also kind of neglecting a host of tiebreakers that come before that:

Three-Team Tie (or more)
If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):
A. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams
B. Record of the tied teams within the division
C. Head-to-head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place)
D. Overall Conference record against non-divisional teams
E. Combined record against all common non-divisional teams
F. Record against the common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division; and
G. Changed: Combined SEC record of the team’s cross-divisional opponents
Click to expand...
 
#38
#38
dasx4 said:
Sorry guys I just don't see it happening. Do we really think that Florida is going to lose 3 more games?
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Likely wins on their schedule: Vandy, SC, cupcake.

Likely losses on their sked: LSU

Toss-ups: UGA, FSU.

Florida is at worst 9-3 this year, at best 11-1.
 
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#39
#39
Even if we beat Bama ...UF losing three conference games seems unlikely
 
#40
#40
Not a chance.

Tennessee can go 5-3 in the conference though. They aren't beating Bama.

But if they get their heads outta their butts like yesterday, they can be pretty darn good.
 
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#41
#41
OP could also call it the "Majors way" since he backed into the 85 Sugar Bowl due to UF being on probation. Guess Phil learned it from his boss.
 
#42
#42
So if Tennessee wins out (unlikely)... and....

UGA wins out except to Georgia Tech (beating Florida)

Florida loses to LSU, UGA, and FSU...

Would we not win the three way tie breaker? This seems like the only hope....
 
#43
#43
thehardknoxlife said:
Not really. Florida would have to lose to 3 of the following teams. LSU, Georgia, Vandy, or SCarolina. Then Tennessee would have to win out. The only other way would be for them to lose to Georgia and one other SEC team then lose to FSU. Georgia and TN win out and have a 3 way tie for the east in which highest AP ranking gets the east.

Summary.

Florida loses 3 SEC games, Tennessee wins out.

Florida Georgia and Tennessee all tie in conf record. Highest poll rankings wins east.
Click to expand...

Not true.


Last tie break is highest ranked playoff ranking.
 
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#44
#44
tumscalcium said:
What does Fulmer our way in mean? Are you referring to 2007 when we won our way in?
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Yeah. You almost remember it right. It was that year when UF was by far the best team in the East... UT got blown out badly by UF and Bama... and through fortunate scheduling back doored into the SEC CG.

UT had one of those... Mizzou has had two.
 
#45
#45
sjt18 said:
Yeah. You almost remember it right. It was that year when UF was by far the best team in the East... UT got blown out badly by UF and Bama... and through fortunate scheduling back doored into the SEC CG.

UT had one of those... Mizzou has had two.
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No. Florida lost 3 conference games. Tennessee lost two. That's not sneaking in.
 
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#47
#47
From where we are, UF almost has to have a third conference loss.

As much as I hate it, they're in the driver's seat.

If UT wins out and UF somehow loses to FSU then there's an outside chance the late loss could hurt them enough.

I loath UF. Giving that game away if UT goes 5-1 to finish the season would be sickening.
 
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