Coronavirus (No politics)

#2,154
#2,154
davethevol said:
It’s happening in Oak Ridge. One worker confirmed with it was around other people and they’re continuing to work. Probably won’t be long before there’s a big outbreak there.
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My gf works at y12. She and most others around her are requesting to work from home. I hope she gets her request granted.
 
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#2,156
#2,156
Welp, just got an email from the office listserv that someone (unidentified) from our office is being treated for symptoms associated with the C19 virus. Last time we were all working from the office was 3/13. I guess that technically puts the rest of us inside the potential exposure envelope (granted, we have private offices and generally keep to ourselves, so hopefully exposure was kept to a minimum).
 
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#2,158
#2,158
Heard Neil Fergerson who headed the report that predicted up to 2.2 million and 500k deaths in the UK has now said they feel they will have 20k or less in the UK. Said difference is more actually had it already then what they thought. This is the report that’s been driving our policy
 
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#2,159
#2,159
JacketVol said:
Heard Neil Fergerson who headed the report that predicted up to 2.2 million and 500k deaths in the UK has now said they feel they will have 20k or less in the UK. Said difference is more actually had it already then what they thought. This is the report that’s been driving our policy
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And they are blasting this over the tv and news media. Oh wait, they arent.
 
#2,161
#2,161
allvol123 said:
And they are blasting this over the tv and news media. Oh wait, they arent.
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J-IDEA’s Neil Ferguson tells MPs lockdown can help NHS manage coronavirus | Imperial News | Imperial College London

I think you’re leaving out the context that this is starting to appear to be more manageable if current strict public health measures continue.

Modeling you can adjust and decide for yourself what number of humans are expendable.

Opinion | Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do.
 
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#2,163
#2,163
xavierbballfan said:
J-IDEA’s Neil Ferguson tells MPs lockdown can help NHS manage coronavirus | Imperial News | Imperial College London

I think you’re leaving out the context that this is starting to appear to be more manageable if current strict public health measures continue.

Modeling you can adjust and decide for yourself what number of humans are expendable.

Opinion | Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do.
Click to expand...

I think a guy dropping his prediction from 500,000 to 20,000 is the news.
 
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#2,164
#2,164
TN 15k tests 94% negative
South has about 13k cases or 001% of population almost enough to fill up a Texas HS football stadium
 
#2,165
#2,165
VolNExile said:
The 500k estimate was under the “do nothing” scenario. They’re doing an aggress lockdown now.
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For two days they have been on lockdown. Have 12 more days. He said they were wrong because so many more had already been exposed prior than they had accounted for.
 
#2,166
#2,166
allvol123 said:
I think a guy dropping his prediction from 500,000 to 20,000 is the news.
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In the linked article it does not say that he dropped his prediction for what would happen if we instituted no public health measures. So if you are saying that you find it noteworthy that less people will die now that strict public health measures are being undertaken is noteworthy then I agree with you.

If you are trying to imply that this is somehow evidence of only fear mongering that is now being corrected to manipulate people for some unclear conspiratorial benefit then I disagree with you.

Is there evidence that the actual model has changed rather than the estimate of how many less people will die because of social health measures?
 
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#2,167
#2,167
xavierbballfan said:
J-IDEA’s Neil Ferguson tells MPs lockdown can help NHS manage coronavirus | Imperial News | Imperial College London

I think you’re leaving out the context that this is starting to appear to be more manageable if current strict public health measures continue.

Modeling you can adjust and decide for yourself what number of humans are expendable.

Opinion | Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do.
Click to expand...

He changed this stance 4 hours ago.
 
#2,169
#2,169
xavierbballfan said:
In the linked article it does not say that he dropped his prediction for what would happen if we instituted no public health measures. So if you are saying that you find it noteworthy that less people will die now that strict public health measures are being undertaken is noteworthy then I agree with you.

If you are trying to imply that this is somehow evidence of only fear mongering that is now being corrected to manipulate people for some unclear conspiratorial benefit then I disagree with you.

Is there evidence that the actual model has changed rather than the estimate of how many less people will die because of social health measures?
Click to expand...

It stated he made a terrible assumption on how many were already infected. Leading to his absurdly wrong 500,000 projected death toll in just his country. Which led to the draconian governmental intervention.
 
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#2,170
#2,170
xavierbballfan said:
J-IDEA’s Neil Ferguson tells MPs lockdown can help NHS manage coronavirus | Imperial News | Imperial College London

I think you’re leaving out the context that this is starting to appear to be more manageable if current strict public health measures continue.

Modeling you can adjust and decide for yourself what number of humans are expendable.

Opinion | Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do.
Click to expand...

I don’t decide the virus does and Neil F himself said a lot of the 20k would’ve died anyway from other illnesses they had such as cancer. We will use this info and you will see us opening things more quickly than 3-4 months. We will have less deaths. Sorry for what appears good news. Death is coming for us all and I don’t get to choose who or when.
 
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#2,172
#2,172
JacketVol said:
I don’t decide the virus does and Neil F himself said a lot of the 20k would’ve died anyway from other illnesses they had such as cancer. We will use this info and you will see us opening things more quickly than 3-4 months. We will have less deaths. Sorry for what appears good news. Death is coming for us all and I don’t get to choose who or when.
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And Neil is going to be desperate to cover his arse now. This is almost criminal.
 
#2,173
#2,173
xavierbballfan said:
In the linked article it does not say that he dropped his prediction for what would happen if we instituted no public health measures. So if you are saying that you find it noteworthy that less people will die now that strict public health measures are being undertaken is noteworthy then I agree with you.

If you are trying to imply that this is somehow evidence of only fear mongering that is now being corrected to manipulate people for some unclear conspiratorial benefit then I disagree with you.

Is there evidence that the actual model has changed rather than the estimate of how many less people will die because of social health measures?
Click to expand...
yes his words. But WTF. Go be sad.
 
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#2,174
#2,174
JacketVol said:
yes his words. But WTF. Go be sad.
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UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

The original article above and quotes below:

"
The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won’t be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units."

"
New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.

"
His comments come as a team at the University of Oxford released provisional findings of a different model that they say shows that up to half the UK population could already have been infected. The model is based on different assumptions to those of Ferguson and others involved in advising the UK government.
Most importantly, it assumes that most people who contract the virus don’t show symptoms and that very few need to go to hospital. “I don’t think that’s consistent with the observed data,” Ferguson told the committee.

I don't think any of that supports what you are saying that he has changed his model. An article on the other study:

Half of United Kingdom Already Infected With Coronavirus, Says Oxford Model

It has very different assumptions and would be awesome and I'm all for that being true. Their conclusion was a recommendation for serum testing for exposure in the population to prove their theory which is different than the statements of:

"he made a terrible assumption on how many were already infected. Leading to his absurdly wrong 500,000 projected death toll in just his country. Which led to the draconian governmental intervention."
 
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