Comparing us to the Big Dogs!(Long)

#1

Smokey1210

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#1
Alright, bear with me here. I have broken down the top 3teams in the east and west by calculating the total number of stars from Rivals for the projected starting line up on both offense and defense. If the player was not rated I have them at 2 stars. I have also calculated the year of players and gave them points as follows; Fr.1, So.2, Jr.3 and Sr.4. I think this is a good way to see where we are with all the big dogs in the SEC. Now I know that this does not factor depth and in game experience which I understand are huge factors but I wanted to show where we stand with starting lineups against SEC conference contenders. I have also calculated the last two BCS Champs to show where they stood with points.

Alabama-AP Poll #2 Coaches Poll #2
Offensive Stars-43 Defensive Stars 40=#2 Total Stars 83
Offensive Year -35 Defensive Year 34=#4 Total Years 69
#2Total Off=78 #3Total Def=74 over all #2 152

LSU-AP Poll #3 Coaches Poll #1
Offensive Stars-39 Defensive Stars 43= #3 Total Stars 82
Offensive Year 35 Defensive year 29=#6 Total Years 64
#4Total Off=74 #6 Total Def=72 over all #5 146

Georgia-AP Poll #6 Coaches Poll #6
Offensive Stars-39 Defensive Stars 41=#5 Total Stars 80
Offensive Year 29 Defensive year 41=#2 Total Years 70
#6Total Off=68 #1 Total Def=82 over all #3 150

South Carolina-AP Poll #9 Coaches Poll #9
Offensive Stars-37 Defensive Stars 41=#6 Total Stars 78
Offensive Year 32 Defensive year 32=#6 Total Years 64
#5Total Off=69 #5 Total Def=73 over all #6=142

Arkansas-AP Poll #10 Coaches Poll #10
Offensive Stars-32 Defensive Stars 36=#7 Total Stars 68
Offensive Year 35 Defensive year 35=#2 Total Years70
#7Total Off=67 #7Total Def=71 over all #7=138

Florida-AP Poll #23 Coaches Poll #NR
Offensive Stars-46 Defensive Stars 48=#1 Total Stars 94
Offensive Year 33 Defensive year 34+#1 Total years 77
#1Total Off=79 #1 Total Def=82 over all #1=161

Tennessee-AP Poll #NR Coaches Poll #NR
Offensive Stars-40 Defensive Stars 41=#4 Total Stars 81
Offensive Year 35 Defensive year 33=#5 Total Years 68
#3Total Off=75 #3 Total Def=74 over all #4=149


2010 BCS Champs Auburn
Offensive Stars-41 Defensive Stars 31= Total 72
Offensive Year 37 Defensive year 36= Total 73
Total off=78 Defensive Year 67=over all=145

2011 BCS Champs Alabama
Offensive Stars 40 Defensive Stars 42= Total 82
Offensive Year 34 Defensive year 35= Total 69
Total Off=74 Defensive Year 77=over all=151

2011 Tennessee Vols
Offensive Stars-40 Defensive Stars 39= Total 79
Offensive Year 26 Defensive year 25= Total 51
Total Off=66 Defensive Year 64=over all=130



I recently started a thread with my prediction of the starting lineup for the 2012 Vols. While doing it I noticed star and upper classmen wise I felt really confident. Well it intrigued me to find out where we stand amongst our top contenders in the conference. What I found intrigued me even more.

Star wise Tennessee is back to the top. I think it speaks volumes of what Derek Dooley has done with our roster. We are setting in 4nd place in the star rankings with our number ones. This makes me excited this coming season for the first time in quite a few years knowing we have the talent level to compete with any team in the SEC. I understand stars don’t mean production but if you look at the last two BCS Champs we have those both beat in this category(well did before we lost Da’Rick Rogers.

Year wise we still have a little ways to go. I think the numbers do not give us justice here and here is why. I think with the amount of playing time we have gotten with our sophomore’s and junior’s, giving those 2 and 3 points is not fair when you consider game experience. I honestly think that will play a huge factor come this season. Some of our juniors have 25 starts under their belts. I would take a 3 year starting junior over a 1st time starting senior every day of the week. Ultimately I think we have 4 of the most matured sophomores in the league and with the most in game experience in the league. I will not dwell on this number much because we are still in the middle of the pack.

Total offense we come in at #3 but this is only due to the fact that we only have three seniors on our starting lineup. I personally think that we will have the number 1 offense in 2012 in the SEC. We just have too many core pieces in place. We have 3 year starter at QB which I think helps more than anything.

Total Defense we come in tied at #3. This number shocks me the most because everyone seems to have the most concern in this area. I think with our starting lineup we could have one of the best defenses in the league. This all hinges on how quick we can pick up the new defensive scheme though. I think our team has put in the work in the off season to make this a good transition especially since we already have the bodies in place to run the 3-4 unlike AL and GA when they transitioned.

After all things said and done my research reaffirmed my felling of how this season will go besides looking at Florida. It is the only team that really stuck out on how I felt they would perform. I thought it would come down to UT and GA in the east and AL and LSU in the west and actually still do. Ultimately we ended up tied in the east with GA in total points and AL gets the slight edge to AL. I also thought the most over rated teams in the league were AR and USC and my feeling were confirmed with them both landing at 6 and 7. I know this is just numbers and there are many equations that go into a championship team but I also feel that there is a common level that you have to be on to compete. Last year we came in with a whopping 130 points and I think that explains a lot when you look at where we ended up at the end of the season. If Florida does somehow win the east this year, look on the bright side next year we will come in with 82 points on total offense and 83 points on total defense with a total of 165 points! Go Vols!

Edit: Made a math typo on LSU changed standings
 
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#7
#7
Nice breakdown! Another reason to believe we should be able to compete with anyone this year!
 
#9
#9
Stopped reading when you said it was just "starting line up". Its not what the first 22 does its what the first 44 does.
 
#10
#10
very interesting to take a mathematical approach to it...i just hope your math translates to the field lol
 
#11
#11
A little hard to read but good work.

In your experience model, the flaw would be guys who started as true Fr. UT has a bunch. That would make them a little better off than a JR/SR that had never started.
 
#13
#13
A little hard to read but good work.

In your experience model, the flaw would be guys who started as true Fr. UT has a bunch. That would make them a little better off than a JR/SR that had never started.

I completely agree that is why I made this comment
" I would take a 3 year starting junior over a 1st time starting senior every day of the week."
 
#14
#14
This is one of the dumbest posts I have seen in awhile.
Heck,why bother playing any games,just give TN the BCS trophy now.
 
#16
#16
Way to contribute to the board!


Great post and appreciate the work you put into it. I believe a 2 deep would add to the analysis, but this is a good way to analyze the teams. I wonder how teams like Vandy, KY and NCSU would score. I wouldn't dare ask you to do more, but would be interesting.
 
#18
#18
This is one of the dumbest posts I have seen in awhile.
Heck,why bother playing any games,just give TN the BCS trophy now.

I suppose some of your approaches are: Wet finger in the wind. Listen to Hyams, Ouiji Board, Palm Reader or a "feel for the team".
 
#19
#19
You have TB as a three year starter when in reality he is only a two year starter and has actually played in only a game or two over a year . Out side of Hunter and ZRo our wideouts have caught a total of 3 division 1 passes . Patterson by everyones account really doesn't know the offense yet . Our defense is learning a new system and we are dangerously thin at linebacker. And as someone mentioned without the 2 deep (and no I don't want to do it ) it really means little . ....I do like your optimism
 
#22
#22
This is one of the dumbest posts I have seen in awhile.
Heck,why bother playing any games,just give TN the BCS trophy now.

Calm_down.gif
 
#23
#23
This is one of the dumbest posts I have seen in awhile.
Heck,why bother playing any games,just give TN the BCS trophy now.

If you actually read the op, it doesn't say we are going to win the BCS this year. OP is just making a mathematical approach using statistics.
 
#24
#24
Very nice, informative post OP! I agree with just about every point you make except for the point where we'll have one of the best defenses in the league. I still think we are 1 year away for this. Our defense will be well adjusted and have crazy depth in 1 more year. Right now, I still feel like we are definitely behind LSU and Bama, and we are more than likely still behind USC and Florida defensively.
 
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