Comparing Josh Dobbs and Chad Kelly vs. SEC competition

[VolnJC]

Well if it's a IQ contest I'm sure Josh wins easily

Exhibit A

Chad Kelly ‏@ckelly_10 · 3h3 hours ago

Work Also Consits of eating

 

[vegasvolfan]

So there's a lot of talk about who is the best QB in the SEC going into next season. Most of the numbers guys are saying it's easily Chad Kelly because of his gaudy overall stats.

I decided to dig a little deeper and found that the statistical gap may not be as wide as most believe.

Just check this out:cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

Chad Kelly vs. SEC competition

62.6% passing
8.0 YPA
16 TDs
8 INTs

Josh Dobbs vs. SEC competition

59.9% passing
6.8 YPA
10 TDs
3 INTs

Kelly has a 2.7% edge in completion percentage, 1.2 more yards per attempt, and although he threw 6 more TDs, he also threw 5 more INTs.

All in all he still performed better against SEC competition. However, the gap looks a lot closer than when you simply look at the overall numbers.

Now onto the numbers that cause the huge gap in overall stats: cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

Chad Kelly vs. non-SEC competition

69.9% passing
10.6 YPA
15 TDs
5 INTs

Josh Dobbs vs. non-SEC competition

59.0% passing
6.4 YPA
5 TDs
2 INTs

Interesting that Dobbs plays much better against SEC competition than he does against non-conference foes (similar to Derek Barnett).

What these stats suggest is that against SEC competition, Dobbs raises his game against SEC competition while Kelly feasts on soft non-conference foes.

The gap between Dobbs and Kelly might not be as big as originally thought. Kelly only looks much better because he feasts more on weak competition.

I hear all these comparisons between QBs. A quarterback's job is to move the ball and score touchdowns either with his feet or with his arm. So, tally up total TDs and total yards and then figure out avg yards per attempt and there you have it. I'm sure our wide receivers would disagree but I don't care if Dobbs is worse in the passing game this year and yet doubles his other numbers (as long as our running game stays status quo). Of course that's ridiculous, but the point remains. A lot of a QB's play depends on OL play. We all know this. I'm not sure anyone else remembers but our OL still struggled a bit last year. I believe Ole Miss had a little bit better line throughout the year. This year we will have to see what happens with the loss of Kerbeson. He created a lot of holes for Dobbs. Still with the way our Freshman OLs played last year, I am optimistic. If we fill Kerbeson's shoes well and the rest of the OL plays better which they should, I think we will see an increase in Dobbs overall numbers, and he will potentially be the best. Ole Miss lost 3 starters I believe.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Sutton might very well be the best corner in the nation, but Hurd isn't even the best at his position in the conference and Dobbs arguably isn't. Hurd is one of the best in the country but he just so happens to play in the same conference as Leonard Fournette. And if Chubb returns to the same form he was in pre-injury, he'd be behind him too.

Dobbs has an argument as best QB in the conference I think. I agree that Kelly's stats are inflated but I also think Kelly is a good QB overall(just speaking on college terms, could care less about the NFL when regarding debates/discussions about college players). If there's a difference in overall ability between the two of them I think it's negligible.

With that said, Dobbs isn't anywhere near being the best QB in the country. He's a good QB, especially for our offense, and certainly good enough to win a lot of games with this year, but in terms of a list of QBs I'd take going in to next year, I don't see any possible way for him to be argued as #1.

And I think the only name you need to bring up to keep Dobbs from #1 is Deshaun Watson. Deshaun Watson is a next level talent. He's like Russell Wilson all over again, Donovan McNabb may be a better comparison. His accuracy is incredible in combination with his athleticism, he's as cool as it gets in the clutch, I'm honestly amazed each time I watch him.

I don't see how even the biggest Dobbs homer could claim he's better than Deshaun Watson(there's a few other QBs I'd certainly put above Dobbs too, but I think Watson is in an entirely different universe/level).

If you want 3 players that have an argument as the best in America at their position on the Vols, Dobbs and Hurd wouldn't be there. The list would be Barnett, Reeves-Maybin and Sutton.

Easily. I'll say it right now. Dobbs is better than Watson.

I think he's more talented. He's slightly bigger, slightly faster, more athletic, just as big an arm, shown better durability, and I believe he's smarter and will be better able to absorb an NFL playbook.

Watson right now plays in a more QB friendly system and is more polished as a passer.

In terms of potential, I believe Dobbs is higher.

 

[TAF]

Easily. I'll say it right now. Dobbs is better than Watson.

I think he's more talented. He's slightly bigger, slightly faster, more athletic, just as big an arm, shown better durability, and I believe he's smarter and will be better able to absorb an NFL playbook.

Watson right now plays in a more QB friendly system and is more polished as a passer.

In terms of potential, I believe Dobbs is higher.

 

[captennmike]

I've been defending Dobbs since he was a freshman and I wish absolutely nothing but great things for a kid I think is one of the classiest, most talented student/athletes to ever walk on the grounds of my alma mater. But while I firmly believe he's one of the top qbs and football players in all of college football, there are a handful of guys that are just better....and no matter how anybody wants to frame the argument, Chad Kelly is simply one of those guys based on what we've seen from each of them to date.

Well said.

 

[livefaith]

Are you saying Dobbs takes games off, plays down to the competition, or gets whipped but weaker competition, as compared to Kelly?

 

[VonVol]

I never said I didn't like them. Just thought we had better players behind them.

I've never tried to promote someone on another team above our own.

I believe you referred to Randolph as either trash or garbage. I'd hate to know how you address people you don't like.

 

[butchna]

Had it not been for a leg injury to a certain individual about 3 years ago, we may not have ever seen Dobbs take a snap as a starter. Wonder where D4H would have fell had that scenario happen?

Ferguson had every opportunity to take a spot. Staff wanted to redshirt Dobbs his second year. Things worked out the way they were supposed to. Dobbs was and is better.

 

[Nasavol]

Ferguson had every opportunity to take a spot. Staff wanted to redshirt Dobbs his second year. Things worked out the way they were supposed to. Dobbs was and is better.

If you remember, RF was ahead of Dobbs and the leg injury his freshman year kept him from playing and Dobbs went in instead. Then he took his ball and went home. Will be interesting to see how he plays at Memphis this year.

I personally think that from a QB perspective, he was further along than Dobbs at the point when he left. Maturity, not so much.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Are you saying Dobbs takes games off, plays down to the competition, or gets whipped but weaker competition, as compared to Kelly?

No. Butch Jones just doesn't use him because our run game is enough to beat weak competition.

Ole Miss on the other hand uses the pass game to win. So Kelly gets to show off against weak competition.

We let Hurd and Kamara show off.

 

[KBVol]

D4H, if there were a profession that does what you do, you would be top tier. You are really good. Not saying you are right, but you really excel at it.

However I'm prone to believe ol' Mark Twain.

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”

You don't pay attention very well, do you? Either that or employing a tremendous amount of sarcasm that I'm not catching. Apologies if it's the latter. D4H is doing nothing more than cherry picking and skewing stats (things he normally criticizes others for using) to try and somehow support his preconceived notions. But the devil is in the details, and D4H has fallen well short of the mark yet again in this thread like he has in so many others.

 

[butchna]

If you remember, RF was ahead of Dobbs and the leg injury his freshman year kept him from playing and Dobbs went in instead. Then he took his ball and went home. Will be interesting to see how he plays at Memphis this year.

I personally think that from a QB perspective, he was further along than Dobbs at the point when he left. Maturity, not so much.

If he was truly ahead, he would have never ceded it. There was scuttlebutt that he was second team going into Spring...had an iffy at best Spring game and folded after that. What in that cries starting QB material? He couldn't even find a taker for a season before JUCO. How would he have handled SEC competition? That's included in the "QB perspective". He wasn't better in any sense. Seems like he needed to hit bottom to tap into his potential. We didn't have two years for that. We kept the better QB.

 

[UT-Rex]

We let Hurd and Kamara show off.

Ohh, now I see your angle.

Dobbs and Hurd and Kamara have each had ample, ample opportunity to help this program (or to "show off" as you put it). It's a good thing he and the other players don't have this / your attitude.

The players are a team, and it's all effort for the team and the program and the State of Tennessee (no individuals).

 

[KBVol]

Dobbs plays in a run first offense, Kelly plays in the air raid which is why the passing yards number is irrelevant. We would expect Kelly to throw for a lot more yards cause that's Ole Miss offense.

The point here is the gap between the two in terms of passing gets large mainly because Kelly pads his numbers against weak competition.

Against top competition Dobbs plays the same while Kelly declines.

Just not true at all. My eyes and NFL-type GM evaluation skills tell me differently.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Just not true at all. My eyes and NFL-type GM evaluation skills tell me differently.

We'll see who is right. I'm very confident in my expectations for Josh.

Tennessee will win the 2016 national title. Dobbs will have a sterling senior year. He'll get drafted high in the 1st round. And be a very good starting QB in the NFL.

Ole Miss will lose at least 5 games in 2016. Kelly will be drafted much lower than Dobbs. He'll also flame out in the league mostly due to character.

 

[Nasavol]

If he was truly ahead, he would have never ceded it. There was scuttlebutt that he was second team going into Spring...had an iffy at best Spring game and folded after that. What in that cries starting QB material? He couldn't even find a taker for a season before JUCO. How would he have handled SEC competition? That's included in the "QB perspective". He wasn't better in any sense. Seems like he needed to hit bottom to tap into his potential. We didn't have two years for that. We kept the better QB.

Opinions vary, you have yours, I have mine, no big deal.

 

[KBVol]

We'll see who is right. I'm very confident in my expectations for Josh.

Tennessee will win the 2016 national title. Dobbs will have a sterling senior year. He'll get drafted high in the 1st round. And be a very good starting QB in the NFL.

Ole Miss will lose at least 5 games in 2016. Kelly will be drafted much lower than Dobbs. He'll also flame out in the league mostly due to character.

Lol! Saving for future reference.

 

[butchna]

Opinions vary, you have yours, I have mine, no big deal.

Mine's still on the team.

 

[Nasavol]

Mine's still on the team.

And throws more bounce passes than Magic Johnson

 

[UTodd01]

Dobbs is a much better runner/athlete which gives him the edge, IMO.

Dobbs can fix his accuracy issues but Kelly can't magically become the athlete that Dobbs is.

And that's not based just on stats alone, the eye test gives Dobbs the edge here when you factor in the numbers as well.

 

[chargervol]

One thing is for certain...

Dobbs is a much better runner/athlete which gives him the edge, IMO.

Dobbs can fix his accuracy issues but Kelly can't magically become the athlete that Dobbs is.

I agree and would rather have Dobbs.
But of course, that wasn't his point.

Dobbs weakest area is the one he is trying to hoo doo and spin into the greatest in all of college fb.
As I pointed out earlier, seems to drive him crazy that people love Dobbs for who he really is.
Poor guy.

 

[UTodd01]

I agree and would rather have Dobbs.
But of course, that wasn't his point.

Dobbs weakest area is the one he is trying to hoo doo and spin into the greatest in all of college fb.
As I pointed out earlier, seems to drive him crazy that people love Dobbs for who he really is.
Poor guy.

I usually agree with his Dobbs stuff, but that's just me lol

 

[KBVol]

Dobbs is a much better runner/athlete which gives him the edge, IMO.

Dobbs can fix his accuracy issues but Kelly can't magically become the athlete that Dobbs is.

And that's not based just on stats alone, the eye test gives Dobbs the edge here when you factor in the numbers as well.

Kelly averaged more yards per rushing attempt last year and had 10 rushing tds compared to Josh's 11. He's a very good athlete who's on another planet than Josh when it comes to throwing the ball. If you're gonna give Josh the edge then you gotta do it based on your subjective opinion because you surely can't do it by any objective measure.

 

[butchna]

And throws more bounce passes than Magic Johnson

And like Magic Johnson...won the starting job. :hmm:

 

[QuickSmurf]

Kelly averaged more yards per rushing attempt last year and had 10 rushing tds compared to Josh's 11. He's a very good athlete who's on another planet than Josh when it comes to throwing the ball. If you're gonna give Josh the edge then you gotta do it based on your subjective opinion because you surely can't do it by any objective measure.

Kelly attempts 106 yards 509 average 4.8 TD's 10

Dobbs 146 671 4.6 11