Comparing Josh Dobbs and Chad Kelly vs. SEC competition

[VFL-82-JP]

There are a lot of slings and arrows that were pointed at Tennessee's defense last season.

The losses are so close you could point to a lot of things.

Imo, Tennessee lost the games they did mainly because they didn't score enough. They didnt score enough because they were one dimensional. They were one dimensional because....

Ole Miss' offense depended on Kelly's arm

Shoulda stopped after your 2nd paragraph. You'da nailed it.

 

[sjt18]

Kelly attempted 38.1 passes per game against SEC competition compared to 27.8 passes per game for Dobbs. That's 10.3 more attempt per game. That's HUGE.

If Dobbs attempted as many passes as Kelly, that advantage in overall passing yards would close dramatically.

The important number is YPA (yards per attempt). The gap in that number is only 1.2 yards per attempt.

It may be "huge" but it has absolutely NOTHING to do with the "averages". If someone had claimed that Kelly was better because of his yards per game.... THEN attempts would be relevant.

 

[sjt18]

D4H is on a mission. His mission is to prove that Dobbs isn't as inaccurate/inconsistent throwing the ball as he is in reality. Why D4H has done this or takes it so personally.... I don't know. But it is obvious. It is persistent. It is delusional.

There's not a Vol fan here that I've seen that doesn't really, really like Dobbs. But every player has his weaknesses and Dobbs' weakness is that he isn't a highly accurate passer. This impacts everything from the number of passes attempted to injuries to WR's to yards after catch.

Hopefully it all clicks this year.... but to pretend the issue doesn't exist is pure lunacy.

 

[TrueOrange]

Not based on these cherry picked stats you have brought here. We get it, you are going all in on Dobbs being the second coming of football jesus this year.

:lolabove:

 

[TrueOrange]

Vandy played Ole Miss and held them to 27 points. 14 points less than their season average of 41ppg.

Missouri held Arkansas to 28 points. 8 points less than their season average of 36ppg.

Ole Miss and Arkansas were the top 2 scoring offenses in the SEC.

Geez, of all the games you could use to try to highlight Missouri's defense, you went with the 28-3 Arkansas game?

 

[orangeluvr]

Dobbs stats are pretty good considering he plays in a run first offense. We must have a more balanced attack to win this year. Can't wait.

 

[KBVol]

I'll skip pass the obligatory "D4H is an unbelievable hypocrite for trying to make an argument by using numbers" niceties.

There are so many ways to shoot him down here. I'm just gonna move right on to the common opponents comparison.

They both had SEC games vs 4 common opponents....Vandy, Florida, Arkansas and Alabama. Dobbs was 1-3 as a starter in those games, Kelly was 2-2. Both lost to Florida and Arkansas, both beat Vanderbilt.....Dobbs lost to Bama while Kelly beat the Tide.

Here are the numbers that D4H will now decry as invalid while quickly pivoting back to assuring us that his eyes and superior evaluation skills trump these stats......

Dobbs-
56-96
58.3%
626 yards (156 per gm)
6.52 ypa
3 tds
0 ints
123.4 rating

Kelly-
92-149
61.7%
1,289 yards (322 per gm)
8.65 ypa
8 tds
3 ints
148.1 rating

Who wants to bet that D4H runs right past the yards, TD passes, yards per attempt and passer rating...and heads straight to the completion percentages and interceptions? Lol.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

I'll skip pass the obligatory "D4H is an unbelievable hypocrite for trying to make an argument by using numbers" niceties.

There are so many ways to shoot him down here. I'm just gonna move right on to the common opponents comparison.

They both had SEC games vs 4 common opponents....Vandy, Florida, Arkansas and Alabama. Dobbs was 1-3 as a starter in those games, Kelly was 2-2. Both lost to Florida and Arkansas, both beat Vanderbilt.....Dobbs lost to Bama while Kelly beat the Tide.

Here are the numbers that D4H will now decry as invalid while quickly pivoting back to assuring us that his eyes and superior evaluation skills trump these stats......

Dobbs-
56-96
58.3%
626 yards (156 per gm)
6.52 ypa
3 tds
0 ints
123.4 rating

Kelly-
92-149
61.7%
1,289 yards (322 per gm)
8.65 ypa
8 tds
3 ints
148.1 rating

Who wants to bet that D4H runs right past the yards, TD passes, yards per attempt and passer rating...and heads straight to the completion percentages and interceptions? Lol.

KB bringing the heat! Of course Kelly has more of a chance throwing a pick when he throws the ball 53 more times.

Dobbs can be a great QB. We ALL know this. We all WANT this. But most of us aren't so subjective that we can't see that there are also some pretty good QB's out there.

 

[AustinMem]

Looking at common opponents, Dobbs played better vs Vandy, but Kelly was better vs Arkansas (by a lot) and Alabama.

Ok, I cannot get the game by game stats to look anything decent

Kelly:
Game Opponent comp att yds % long TD INT Rating Rush Yds Avg Long TD QBR(raw) QBR(adj)
Tennessee-Martin 9 15 211 60 57 2 1 208.8 1 20 20 20 1 91.7 78.2
Fresno State 20 25 346 80 50 4 0 249.1 5 26 5.2 9 1 98.1 97.1
@Alabama 18 33 341 54.5 73 3 0 171.3 8 21 2.6 15 1 78 95.8
Vanderbilt 24 42 321 57.1 32 1 2 119.7 5 -10 -2 11 0 50.8 71.3
@Florida 26 40 259 65 23 1 1 122.6 15 40 2.7 19 0 44.4 73.1
New Mexico State 24 33 384 72.7 66 3 1 194.4 3 32 10.7 16 1 96.4 90.9
@Memphis 33 47 372 70.2 26 2 2 142.2 9 -11 -1.2 8 0 45.6 50
Texas A&M 26 41 241 63.4 58 2 3 114.3 9 23 2.6 13 0 49.6 68.8
@Auburn 33 51 381 64.7 45 2 2 132.6 8 21 2.6 10 0 66.7 78.2
Arkansas 24 34 368 70.6 42 3 0 190.6 11 110 10 24 3 98.3 98.1
LSU 19 34 280 55.9 57 2 0 144.5 12 81 6.8 20 2 85.5 94.3
@Mississippi State 21 30 236 70 36 2 0 158.1 11 74 6.7 27 1 94.2 96
Oklahoma State 21 33 302 63.6 34 4 1 174.5 10 73 7.3 43 0 88.7 91.1


Dobbs:
Game Opponent comp att yds % long TD INT Rating Rush Yds Avg Long TD QBR(raw) QBR(adj)
Bowling Green 15 22 205 68.2 45 2 0 176.5 12 89 7.4 30 1 89.9 86
Oklahoma 13 31 125 41.9 20 1 1 80 14 12 0.9 15 1 20.5 40.5
Western Carolina 15 21 144 71.4 25 2 0 160.5 4 6 1.5 11 0 76.5 51.4
@Florida 10 17 83 58.8 19 0 0 99.8 18 136 7.6 62 0 44.6 73.3
Arkansas 20 36 232 55.6 31 0 0 109.7 7 7 1 7 1 55.3 52.5
Georgia 25 42 312 59.5 39 3 1 140.7 18 118 6.6 27 2 80.2 89
@Alabama 13 22 171 59.1 34 1 0 139.4 16 19 1.2 17 0 49.9 86.5
@Kentucky 16 26 233 61.5 75 2 1 154.5 7 51 7.3 28 2 94 92.1
South Carolina 20 34 255 58.8 37 2 1 135.4 13 35 2.7 10 0 56.6 59.2
North Texas 15 23 136 65.2 26 0 1 106.2 4 3 0.8 7 0 57 29.6
@Missouri 16 24 89 66.7 21 0 0 97.8 10 54 5.4 23 1 64.6 78.5
Vanderbilt 13 21 140 61.9 18 2 0 149.3 11 93 8.5 25 1 94.8 97.8
Northwestern 14 25 166 56 42 0 0 111.8 12 48 4 18 2 65.1 87.9


QBR-Adjusted wise Dobbs's best games were
Vanderbilt (97.8)
Kentucky (92.1)
Georgia (89)
Northwestern (87.9)

while Chad Kelley's best games were
Arkansas (98.1)
Fresno State (97.1)
Mississippi State (96)
Alabama (95.8)

From a yards perspective it was:
Dobbs - Georgia (312), South Carolina (255), Kentucky (233)
Kelly - New Mexico State (384), Memphis (372), Arkansas (368)

Now looking at their worst games and raw QBR (just stats, not adjusted for strength of the defense faced)
Kelly's were Florida, Memphis and Texas A&M
Dobbs was worst against Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama

 

[WillisWG]

Got some oranges in with your apples, Sport. For the last few season the SEC West has been the stronger division. So how about looking at the teams that we played in common: Arkansas, Bama, Florida & Vandy.

 

[KBVol]

Vanderbilt held Ole Miss to 27 points in 2015. Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss - Game Recap - September 26, 2015 - ESPN

This was an Ole Miss team that averaged over 40ppg for the season.

Until we lit them up for 50+ in the season finale, Vanderbilt's defense was actually pretty stout.

And stop with the revisionist history. A lot of people here thought we would struggle to score against Vandy last year.

That was also the week AFTER OleMiss beat Alabama. Could they have been a little down emotionally (even though they still won)? You know, like you've suggested Tennessee was vs Arkansas the week after the Vols lost to Florida (even though emotions have nothing to do with the game of football, just talent and draft picks).

Speaking of Arkansas....while you're cherry picking games, care to compare how each QB performed vs the Razorbacks? No? Here, allow me.....

Dobbs-
20-36
55.6%
232 yds
6.4 ypa
0 tds
0 ints
109.7 rating
7 carries, 7 yards, 0 tds

Kelly-
24-34
70.6%
368 yds
10.8 ypa
3 tds
0 ints
190.6 rating
11 carries, 110 yards, 3 tds

 

[ChismsHeadband]

Kelly has the system to promote him as a better QB. Ole Miss doesn't have the most prolific run game and are a pass-first offense.

Dobbs is obviously different. I think he can be a reliable passer, if we call the right plays for him, including more of the 8-15 yard variety.

If I were making a 2016 Preseason All SEC list, I'd have Kelly #1, Dobbs #2.

I'd also have Hurd and Kamara way higher than any Ole Miss RB.

 

[KBVol]

KB bringing the heat! Of course Kelly has more of a chance throwing a pick when he throws the ball 53 more times.

Dobbs can be a great QB. We ALL know this. We all WANT this. But most of us aren't so subjective that we can't see that there are also some pretty good QB's out there.

Agree 100% 83. I'll also add, like I have previously over the last year or so, that I hate that Dobbs and other UT players become pawns in our debates with D4H.

He makes a ridiculous or skewed assertion about Dobbs or Hurd or Wolf or Griffin, et al.....and in the interest/spirit of honest debate and trying to set the record straight on a fan forum message board, we're made to look like "player haters" or racists or whatever else, when nothing could be further from the truth.

I've been defending Dobbs since he was a freshman and I wish absolutely nothing but great things for a kid I think is one of the classiest, most talented student/athletes to ever walk on the grounds of my alma mater. But while I firmly believe he's one of the top qbs and football players in all of college football, there are a handful of guys that are just better....and no matter how anybody wants to frame the argument, Chad Kelly is simply one of those guys based on what we've seen from each of them to date.

 

[QuickSmurf]

Less than 1% difference in completion % and less than half a yard difference in YPA.

How you interpret Dobbs to be "much better" in SEC play is beyond me.

Also I think it should be noted that Kelly had about 1,000 more yards than Dobbs in those 8 SEC games. Not only that but I'm pretty sure I remember reading he broke over a dozen school records last year. The guy is obviously a very productive passer and there isn't much of a comparison, even from a statistical standpoint.

Ole Miss has no running game. Their offense is pretty much passing only. I only mentioned that because you brought up Kelly throwing for 1000 yards more.

 

[QuickSmurf]

Agree 100% 83. I'll also add, like I have previously over the last year or so, that I hate that Dobbs and other UT players become pawns in our debates with D4H.

He makes a ridiculous or skewed assertion about Dobbs or Hurd or Wolf or Griffin, et al.....and in the interest/spirit of honest debate and trying to set the record straight on a fan forum message board, we're made to look like "player haters" or racists or whatever else, when nothing could be further from the truth.

I've been defending Dobbs since he was a freshman and I wish absolutely nothing but great things for a kid I think is one of the classiest, most talented student/athletes to ever walk on the grounds of my alma mater. But while I firmly believe he's one of the top qbs and football players in all of college football, there are a handful of guys that are just better....and no matter how anybody wants to frame the argument, Chad Kelly is simply one of those guys based on what we've seen from each of them to date.

Why is it so important to you to attempt to bring down d4h's confidence in Dobbs? I dont get that. You take a lot of time to try to bring him down. Do you go around telling kids that santa claus isnt real too?

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

D4H is on a mission. His mission is to prove that Dobbs isn't as inaccurate/inconsistent throwing the ball as he is in reality. Why D4H has done this or takes it so personally.... I don't know. But it is obvious. It is persistent. It is delusional.

There's not a Vol fan here that I've seen that doesn't really, really like Dobbs. But every player has his weaknesses and Dobbs' weakness is that he isn't a highly accurate passer. This impacts everything from the number of passes attempted to injuries to WR's to yards after catch.

Hopefully it all clicks this year.... but to pretend the issue doesn't exist is pure lunacy.

Nope. I've admitted many times he needs to improve with his consistency.

He's just not as bad as y'all make him out to be. Which is why I make threads like this.

 

[KBVol]

Ole Miss has no running game. Their offense is pretty much passing only. I only mentioned that because you brought up Kelly throwing for 1000 yards more.

Not quite true Smurf

1. Kelly actually threw for 1,750 more yards in the same number of games.

2. Ole Miss was 7th in the SEC in rushing, averaged about 12 fewer rushes and 40 fewer yards per game than Tennessee.

3. Ole Miss actually averaged more yards per rush than Tennessee....5.14 vs 4.7

4. Tennessee total rushing yds- 2,908
Ole Miss total rushing yds- 2,380

When you look at this, the only real conclusion you can come to is that OleMiss could indeed run the ball, but played more to their offensive strength, which was to have Kelly throw the ball. Similarly, Tennessee played to its strength as well, which was running the ball.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I'll skip pass the obligatory "D4H is an unbelievable hypocrite for trying to make an argument by using numbers" niceties.

There are so many ways to shoot him down here. I'm just gonna move right on to the common opponents comparison.

They both had SEC games vs 4 common opponents....Vandy, Florida, Arkansas and Alabama. Dobbs was 1-3 as a starter in those games, Kelly was 2-2. Both lost to Florida and Arkansas, both beat Vanderbilt.....Dobbs lost to Bama while Kelly beat the Tide.

Here are the numbers that D4H will now decry as invalid while quickly pivoting back to assuring us that his eyes and superior evaluation skills trump these stats......

Dobbs-
56-96
58.3%
626 yards (156 per gm)
6.52 ypa
3 tds
0 ints
123.4 rating

Kelly-
92-149
61.7%
1,289 yards (322 per gm)
8.65 ypa
8 tds
3 ints
148.1 rating

Who wants to bet that D4H runs right past the yards, TD passes, yards per attempt and passer rating...and heads straight to the completion percentages and interceptions? Lol.

Dobbs plays in a run first offense, Kelly plays in the air raid which is why the passing yards number is irrelevant. We would expect Kelly to throw for a lot more yards cause that's Ole Miss offense.

The point here is the gap between the two in terms of passing gets large mainly because Kelly pads his numbers against weak competition.

Against top competition Dobbs plays the same while Kelly declines.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Agree 100% 83. I'll also add, like I have previously over the last year or so, that I hate that Dobbs and other UT players become pawns in our debates with D4H.

He makes a ridiculous or skewed assertion about Dobbs or Hurd or Wolf or Griffin, et al.....and in the interest/spirit of honest debate and trying to set the record straight on a fan forum message board, we're made to look like "player haters" or racists or whatever else, when nothing could be further from the truth.

I've been defending Dobbs since he was a freshman and I wish absolutely nothing but great things for a kid I think is one of the classiest, most talented student/athletes to ever walk on the grounds of my alma mater. But while I firmly believe he's one of the top qbs and football players in all of college football, there are a handful of guys that are just better....and no matter how anybody wants to frame the argument, Chad Kelly is simply one of those guys based on what we've seen from each of them to date.

Really?

Cause all I've seen is you demeaning our QB.

If you don't like me that's fine. But your arguments always have a tinge of disrespect for Dobbs that others have noticed.

You claim I skew numbers to try and make Dobbs look better than he is. I'm sure you're just as guilty in the opposite. Skewing stats to make him look worse. Not acknowledging the difference in offenses between Ole Miss and Tennessee being the most glaring.

 

[pimo1]

Here is my argument with this. You have stated in previous threads that good/great players are SUPPOSED to play exceptionally well vs. lesser opponents. So why isn't Dobbs?

And by the way, 2.7% higher completion % for Kelly and 1.2 more YPA are actually a LARGE difference.

Dobbs is a very talented QB and could very well take over as best QB in the SEC at the end of the year. Right now, I'd say Kelly has the edge.

I have to agree based on them purely as passers. Not sure where D4H gets that 1.2 YPA and 2.7% completion percentage is small. Are you out of your mind? Especially once you compare volume of attempts. One would expect that a guy that throws a lot more balls and is less of a running threat will throw more picks and actually have a lower completion percentage. Dobbs is a fairly low volume passer comparatively. the one thing that is interesting about Dobbs though is his completion percentage is fairly stable and that is not normal for a low volume passer. You'd expect ups and downs in his case but he is consistent.

I do however think that Dobbs is in a position ot demonstrate his full potential as a passer this year. He finally has the right personnel. We will be, at worst good, at WR and O-line this year. We evne have enough depth to absorb a few injuries anywhere but LT.


I honestly think the 2 most important people hands down on this years team will be whoever starts at LT and whoever starts opposite Cam.

 

[UT-Rex]

I think so too. I think the coaches tried to hide him when we played the Western Carolinas of the world to keep him healthy. While Kelly used those games to pad his stats.

(I Love Dobbs), but you keep speaking to pass attempts vs "weak competition" / and an effort of Staff to "hide" our qb's passing abilities early season.

A quick glance shows Dobbs' attempts were actually higher in the WC and BG games than in the FL and AL games --

BG game: Completions-Attempts-Int / total passing....15-23-0 / 205
WCU game: Completions-Attempts-Int / total passing....21-29-0 / 237
FL game: Completions-Attempts-Int / total passing....12-19-0 / 165
GA game: Completions-Attempts-Int / total passing....25-42-0 / 312
AL game: Completions-Attempts-Int / total passing....13-22-0 / 171

So, maybe pay attention to why attempts was so significantly higher in the GA game (but still only 59% completion / well below Kelly's).

Was Dobbs turned loose/just took over the play-calling reigns, or did the type of pass-play-calling you're looking for change based on 21-point down situation-only?

IE, what were the attempts during 1st half of GA game vs 2nd half?

 

[08Vol]

Thanks KB for pulling the #s from our 4 common opponents. Really wish I had seen your post before doing the same thing. To be fair I've included rushing #s and Dobbs' reception in their comparison.

Over these 4 games
Kelly was involved in 188 plays or 47 per game. He averaged 7.7 yds per play and a TD every 15.7 plays. He totaled 12 TDs

Dobbs was involved in 149 plays or 37.25 per game. He averaged 6.3 yds per play and a TD every 24.8 plays. He totaled 6 TDs

Kelly is the better QB but it may not matter. The star on offense is Hurd. We have a better chance of winning when Hurd is running the ball. Ole Miss has a better chance of winning when Kelly is slinging it around. The improvement that will get us over the hump isn't Dobbs being a better down field passer, it's Hurd hitting the home run balls when he gets into space. Hurd said he was working on his speed this off season and we've seen the treadmill videos. Let Kelly be the better QB, we'll be the team in Atlanta.

 

[volfanhill]

Have you broken down the film yet D4H?

 

[sjt18]

Nope. I've admitted many times he needs to improve with his consistency.

He's just not as bad as y'all make him out to be. Which is why I make threads like this.

No you haven't. You've claimed that he should win the Heisman and that Kelly is a piece of crap who will amount to nothing in the NFL.... in spite of his obvious skills.

In response to various arguments by various people, you have tried to white wash the FACT that even when Dobbs completes passes down field he often forces receivers to make difficult catches and prevents YAC's.

I don't know what it is. But it IS there. To me, Dobbs best accuracy comes in games like USCe '14 when he just plays and does have time to think. That seems to indicate that the problem is in his head.... and those are often the most difficult problems to overcome.

 

[musolfmj]

D4H, if there were a profession that does what you do, you would be top tier. You are really good. Not saying you are right, but you really excel at it.

However I'm prone to believe ol' Mark Twain.

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”