Comparing Josh Dobbs and Chad Kelly vs. SEC competition

#1
Dobbs 4 Heisman

Dobbs 4 Heisman

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#1
So there's a lot of talk about who is the best QB in the SEC going into next season. Most of the numbers guys are saying it's easily Chad Kelly because of his gaudy overall stats.

I decided to dig a little deeper and found that the statistical gap may not be as wide as most believe.

Just check this out:cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

Chad Kelly vs. SEC competition

62.6% passing
8.0 YPA
16 TDs
8 INTs

Josh Dobbs vs. SEC competition

59.9% passing
6.8 YPA
10 TDs
3 INTs

Kelly has a 2.7% edge in completion percentage, 1.2 more yards per attempt, and although he threw 6 more TDs, he also threw 5 more INTs.

All in all he still performed better against SEC competition. However, the gap looks a lot closer than when you simply look at the overall numbers.

Now onto the numbers that cause the huge gap in overall stats: cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

Chad Kelly vs. non-SEC competition

69.9% passing
10.6 YPA
15 TDs
5 INTs

Josh Dobbs vs. non-SEC competition

59.0% passing
6.4 YPA
5 TDs
2 INTs

Interesting that Dobbs plays much better against SEC competition than he does against non-conference foes (similar to Derek Barnett).

What these stats suggest is that against SEC competition, Dobbs raises his game against SEC competition while Kelly feasts on soft non-conference foes.

The gap between Dobbs and Kelly might not be as big as originally thought. Kelly only looks much better because he feasts more on weak competition.
 
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#2
#2
I think Dobbs takes a big leap forward this year. He will destroy numbers like that this year. I hope so at least.

Go Vols!
 
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#3
#3
USCGVOL said:
I think Dobbs takes a big leap forward this year. He will destroy numbers like that this year. I hope so at least.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

I think so too. I think the coaches tried to hide him when we played the Western Carolinas of the world to keep him healthy. While Kelly used those games to pad his stats.
 
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#4
#4
Less than 1% difference in completion % and less than half a yard difference in YPA.

How you interpret Dobbs to be "much better" in SEC play is beyond me.

Also I think it should be noted that Kelly had about 1,000 more yards than Dobbs in those 8 SEC games. Not only that but I'm pretty sure I remember reading he broke over a dozen school records last year. The guy is obviously a very productive passer and there isn't much of a comparison, even from a statistical standpoint.
 
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#5
#5
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
So there's a lot of talk about who is the best QB in the SEC going into next season. Most of the numbers guys are saying it's easily Chad Kelly because of his gaudy overall stats.

I decided to dig a little deeper and found that the statistical gap may not be as wide as most believe.

Just check this out:cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

Chad Kelly vs. SEC competition

62.6% passing
8.0 YPA
16 TDs
8 INTs

Josh Dobbs vs. SEC competition

59.9% passing
6.8 YPA
10 TDs
3 INTs

Kelly has a 2.7% edge in completion percentage, 1.2 more yards per attempt, and although he threw 6 more TDs, he also threw 5 more INTs.

All in all he still performed better against SEC competition. However, the gap looks a lot closer than when you simply look at the overall numbers.

Now onto the numbers that cause the huge gap in overall stats: cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

Chad Kelly vs. non-SEC competition

69.9% passing
10.6 YPA
15 TDs
5 INTs

Josh Dobbs vs. non-SEC competition

59.0% passing
6.4 YPA
5 TDs
2 INTs

Interesting that Dobbs plays much better against SEC competition than he does against non-conference foes (similar to Derek Barnett).

What these stats suggest is that against SEC competition, Dobbs raises his game against SEC competition while Kelly feasts on soft non-conference foes.

The gap between Dobbs and Kelly might not be as big as originally thought. Kelly only looks much better because he feasts more on weak competition.
Click to expand...

Here is my argument with this. You have stated in previous threads that good/great players are SUPPOSED to play exceptionally well vs. lesser opponents. So why isn't Dobbs?

And by the way, 2.7% higher completion % for Kelly and 1.2 more YPA are actually a LARGE difference.

Dobbs is a very talented QB and could very well take over as best QB in the SEC at the end of the year. Right now, I'd say Kelly has the edge.
 
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#6
#6
Volunteer_Kirby said:
Less than 1% difference in completion % and less than half a yard difference in YPA.

How you interpret Dobbs to be "much better" in SEC play is beyond me.

Also I think it should be noted that Kelly had about 1,000 more yards than Dobbs in those 8 SEC games. Not only that but I'm pretty sure I remember reading he broke over a dozen school records last year. The guy is obviously a very productive passer and there isn't much of a comparison, even from a statistical standpoint.
Click to expand...

Kelly attempted 38.1 passes per game against SEC competition compared to 27.8 passes per game for Dobbs. That's 10.3 more attempt per game. That's HUGE.

If Dobbs attempted as many passes as Kelly, that advantage in overall passing yards would close dramatically.

The important number is YPA (yards per attempt). The gap in that number is only 1.2 yards per attempt.
 
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#7
#7
VOL 4 Life 83 said:
Here is my argument with this. You have stated in previous threads that good/great players are SUPPOSED to play exceptionally well vs. lesser opponents. So why isn't Dobbs?

And by the way, 2.7% higher completion % for Kelly and 1.2 more YPA are actually a LARGE difference.

Dobbs is a very talented QB and could very well take over as best QB in the SEC at the end of the year. Right now, I'd say Kelly has the edge.
Click to expand...

Not as large as 10.9% completion percentage advantage and over 4 YPA.

The gap between them versus non-SEC competition is huge.

Versus SEC teams Kelly still has a solid lead. But there is an argument to be made that Dobbs could be better in 2016.
 
#8
#8
Based on your stats, it looks to me that Kelley improves with weaker opponents and Dobbs either holds steady or declines.

Something looks fishy to me because that is not at all what i would expect.
 
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#9
#9
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Not as large as 10.9% completion percentage advantage and over 4 YPA.

The gap between them versus non-SEC competition is huge.

Versus SEC teams Kelly still has a solid lead. But there is an argument to be made that Dobbs could be better in 2016.
Click to expand...

Not based on these cherry picked stats you have brought here. We get it, you are going all in on Dobbs being the second coming of football jesus this year.
 
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#10
#10
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Not as large as 10.9% completion percentage advantage and over 4 YPA.

The gap between them versus non-SEC competition is huge.

Versus SEC teams Kelly still has a solid lead. But there is an argument to be made that Dobbs could be better in 2016.
Click to expand...

Yes, he could. He would have to have a stellar year for sure. Chad Kelly plays in the tougher side of the conference IMO and has to play LSU, Bama and Georgia, not to mention FSU. If Kelly has a statistical year like he did last year vs. that kind of competition, it's gonna be hard for Dobbs to keep up with the style of offense we play.
 
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#11
#11
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Kelly attempted 38.1 passes per game against SEC competition compared to 27.8 passes per game for Dobbs.

If Dobbs attempted as many passes as Kelly, that advantage in overall passing yards would close dramatically.

The important number is YPA (yards per attempt). The gap in that number is only 1.2 yards per attempt.
Click to expand...

Yeah, this assuming a lot. Have fun debating yourself. :hi:
 
#12
#12
how many games does Dobbs have vs SEC as opposed to non? I'd venture to guess that Dobbs has more cumulative stats against the SEC than non, but that he's played far more games against the SEC than non.
 
#13
#13
crusse10 said:
how many games does Dobbs have vs SEC as opposed to non? I'd venture to guess that Dobbs has more cumulative stats against the SEC than non, but that he's played far more games against the SEC than non.
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Both guys played 8 SEC games and 5 non-SEC games.

Schedule isn't that big a difference. Because eventhough Dobbs plays in the east and Kelly the west, some of the bottom feeder east teams are actually better defensively than the bottom teams in the west.

For example, Vanderbilt and Missouri (the bottom feeders of the east) had statistically great defenses.
 
#14
#14
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Both guys played 8 SEC games and 5 non-SEC games.

Schedule isn't that big a difference. Because eventhough Dobbs plays in the east and Kelly the west, some of the bottom feeder east teams are actually better defensively than the bottom teams in the west.

For example, Vanderbilt and Missouri (the bottom feeders of the east) had statistically great defenses.
Click to expand...

LOL! Have you seen the schedules that those two teams played against?

The west teams have to play all the other west teams plus two cross-divisional rivals in the east. I'd say the level of competition is stiffer in the west hands down.
 
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#15
#15
There are a lot of slings and arrows that were pointed at Tennessee's defense last season.

The losses are so close you could point to a lot of things.

Imo, Tennessee lost the games they did mainly because they didn't score enough. They didnt score enough because they were one dimensional. They were one dimensional because....

Ole Miss' offense depended on Kelly's arm
 
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#16
#16
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Both guys played 8 SEC games and 5 non-SEC games.

Schedule isn't that big a difference. Because eventhough Dobbs plays in the east and Kelly the west, some of the bottom feeder east teams are actually better defensively than the bottom teams in the west.

For example, Vanderbilt and Missouri (the bottom feeders of the east) had statistically great defenses.
Click to expand...

Might have to do with the top 5 offenses in the SEC are from the West and Vandy and Mizzou don't have to play them all
 
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#17
#17
VOL 4 Life 83 said:
LOL! Have you seen the schedules that those two teams played against?

The west teams have to play all the other west teams plus two cross-divisional rivals in the east. I'd say the level of competition is stiffer in the west hands down.
Click to expand...

Vanderbilt held Ole Miss to 27 points in 2015. Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss - Game Recap - September 26, 2015 - ESPN

This was an Ole Miss team that averaged over 40ppg for the season.

Until we lit them up for 50+ in the season finale, Vanderbilt's defense was actually pretty stout.

And stop with the revisionist history. A lot of people here thought we would struggle to score against Vandy last year.
 
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#18
#18
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
So there's a lot of talk about who is the best QB in the SEC going into next season. Most of the numbers guys are saying it's easily Chad Kelly because of his gaudy overall stats.

I decided to dig a little deeper and found that the statistical gap may not be as wide as most believe.

Just check this out:cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

Chad Kelly vs. SEC competition

62.6% passing
8.0 YPA
16 TDs
8 INTs

Josh Dobbs vs. SEC competition

59.9% passing
6.8 YPA
10 TDs
3 INTs

Kelly has a 2.7% edge in completion percentage, 1.2 more yards per attempt, and although he threw 6 more TDs, he also threw 5 more INTs.

All in all he still performed better against SEC competition. However, the gap looks a lot closer than when you simply look at the overall numbers.

Now onto the numbers that cause the huge gap in overall stats: cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

Chad Kelly vs. non-SEC competition

69.9% passing
10.6 YPA
15 TDs
5 INTs

Josh Dobbs vs. non-SEC competition

59.0% passing
6.4 YPA
5 TDs
2 INTs

Interesting that Dobbs plays much better against SEC competition than he does against non-conference foes (similar to Derek Barnett).

What these stats suggest is that against SEC competition, Dobbs raises his game against SEC competition while Kelly feasts on soft non-conference foes.

The gap between Dobbs and Kelly might not be as big as originally thought. Kelly only looks much better because he feasts more on weak competition.
Click to expand...

All of this means nothing. The only thing that matters is for Dobbs to stay healthy at least through the Alabama game. If he does, we probably go to Atlanta. If not, we are screwed.
 
#19
#19
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Vanderbilt held Ole Miss to 27 points in 2015. Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss - Game Recap - September 26, 2015 - ESPN

This was an Ole Miss team that averaged over 40ppg for the season.

Until we lit them up for 50+ in the season finale, Vanderbilt's defense was actually pretty stout.

And stop with the revisionist history. A lot of people here thought we would struggle to score against Vandy last year.
Click to expand...


You may have overlooked the fact that they just got done winning a very physical game with UA. Playing flat the next week after a game like that happens often.
 
#20
#20
#21
#21
BearCat204 said:
Might have to do with the top 5 offenses in the SEC are from the West and Vandy and Mizzou don't have to play them all
Click to expand...

Vandy played Ole Miss and held them to 27 points. 14 points less than their season average of 41ppg.

Missouri held Arkansas to 28 points. 8 points less than their season average of 36ppg.

Ole Miss and Arkansas were the top 2 scoring offenses in the SEC.
 
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#22
#22
I hate to agree with D4H but any reasonable vol fan has to admit last year against weaker opponents the stats went to the running backs because we knew we could run it. Butch isn't up the middle Majors but if he doesn't have to throw it the chart says not to throw it.
 
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#25
#25
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Vanderbilt held Ole Miss to 27 points in 2015. Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss - Game Recap - September 26, 2015 - ESPN

This was an Ole Miss team that averaged over 40ppg for the season.

Until we lit them up for 50+ in the season finale, Vanderbilt's defense was actually pretty stout.

And stop with the revisionist history. A lot of people here thought we would struggle to score against Vandy last year.
Click to expand...

Actually, Vandy had a stout defense because they played an incredibly weak schedule, same as Missouri.

Vandy at 38 and Missouri at 40.

Compare that to Ole Miss that had the third highest strength of schedule last year. UT at 12. So Ole Miss averages 40+ points a game yet they have the 3rd toughest SOS in the country. Yeah Chad Kelly is a baller.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
 
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