Comparing Alabama to Florida and Texas A&M

#26
#26
Volsfaninva917 said:
If UT's oline can hold up for 4 quarter and if UT can establish the deep ball early to get the running game going. And if UT can figure out a way to get to Hurts without giving up the big plays then UT will win.
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IF,IF,IF.. If the Vols outplay Bama for 4 FOUR qtrs., then we should win. However, sometimes this doesn't work.(our game last week) So "IF" UT scores more points than Bama we win!! GO VOLS
 
#27
#27
Very rarely can you look at outcomes. Matchups dictate almost every individual outcome. For instance Saban is prime example. Alot of times over his career analysis will say hid team didn't dominate such and such team did. But when such and such team meets Sabans LSU or Bama team then he imposes his will. A great defense and strong running game has always been able to control times of games and wear down opponents. This team has taken more of a vertical passing presence due to the talent with Kiffins ingenuity. Every game brings it's own identity. Most of feel Tennessee is up to the challenge anf this will be a game decided late in the 4th.
 
#28
#28
Prediction number 2 here isn't really going out on much of a limb. We'all average between 3 and 4.5 YPC? That's a huge variance. It's the equivalent of saying we'all score between 10 and 35 points.
 
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#29
#29
Remember the article of UT being the most important team in 2013? We were the NCAA playoff teams' punching bag. Every analyst wanted to see how we fared against Oregon, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and Mizzou. It makes for more ratings and clicks but it's a flawed system.
 
#32
#32
Crazy Ivan said:
Wish it was that simple. Football is about matchups each individual game, so comparing common opponents isn't going to work, much less comparing common opponents' common opponents.

Va Tech beat UNC by 31. UGA only beat UNC by 9. We only beat UGA by 3. So how come Va Tech didn't beat us by 19?
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Because #WGWTFA... That's why..
 
#33
#33
The only basis upon which to compare the football teams for Florida and Alabama is that if they played 10 times, Alabama would win 14 of them. The extra 4 are leftovers from such lopsided margins in the first 10.
 
#34
#34
The transitive property does not apply, to be sure. The take-home point here, though, is that the Alabama football team is not, in fact, made up of gods, and Nick Saban is not, in fact, Quetzalcoatl. They can be beaten. We were within a touchdown last year, for goodness sake.
 
#35
#35
Unfortunately, the kind of "logic" used by D4H doesn't actually work.

There are useful patterns that can be pulled from those types of comparisons but not the direct correlations he tried.

Bama's early scheduled has included two good teams. Neither of them look as talented or deep as TAM. Those teams victimized Bama in the pass game but couldn't run the ball. Both are well below UT in rushing O but well above UT in passing O. That's not necessarily good news since pretty much no one has been able to run vs Bama. However, those teams have created a pattern for playing O against Bama that UT has the talent to copy.... plus hopefully run it better.

Probably the biggest thing that might be in UT's advantage is that running QB's have historically given Saban's D's more trouble than those with pro-style QB's. Kent State has a running QB (sort of) but none of Bama's other opponents do. Kelly can run and is effective when he does it but he only runs about 7 times per game including sacks. Dobbs is the first true running QB Bama has faced this year.... and Dobbs has improved throwing the ball.
 
#38
#38
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
My focus isn't on the transitive property. I'm doing more of a statistical comparison.

Given our success moving the ball offensively against similar defenses, we should move the ball against Alabama.

The only statistical outlier is Alabama's rush defense. Thats the only thing we haven't faced yet.
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.
 
#40
#40
UT will have success throwing the ball because Bamas secondary sucks. However, it won't be a crap ton of yards because UT will likely give up plenty of stacks and hurried throws. That's something you really gotta consider.

UT will have a decent rush avg with Dobbs and Kamara stretching the field (Hurd getting the crunch time yards).

The issue is ggoing to be, even if UT doesn't turn the ball they simply haven't proven to finish drives... yes they are very good at getting TDs those times they don't screw up but Bama will probably have another defensive TD. I think that and losing the TO ratio altogether will do them in, seeing how the defense simply won't be able to hold it together in the 4th.

Yeah we said that against A&M but now they played yet another gruesome game that lasted 4 hours before OT started. I'm being optimistic tho, despite me thinking they lose by 2 scores and never truly threaten to upset. I simply can't expect this team to go beyond such odds. I believe a healthy team is 6-0 and could take them down.
 
#42
#42
Simple. Alabama is Floridas defense and aTm's offense.... On the same team.

More or less
 
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#43
#43
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Alabama and Tennessee have yet to play a common opponent so its hard to stack the two teams up against one another. However, Tennessee has played 2 teams (Texas A&M and Florida) that have played against teams that Alabama has already faced.

Alabama - 34
Kentucky - 6

Florida - 45
Kentucky - 7

Alabama - 49
Arkansas - 30

Texas A&M - 45
Arkansas - 24

After looking at the box scores of the Alabama/Arkansas, Texas A&M/Arkansas, Alabama/Kentucky, and Florida/Kentucky games, I feel comfortable making the following predictions:

1. Tennessee's offense will out-gain Alabama's offense by nearly 100 yards. How Come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Texas A&M and Florida were able to match the yardage output of Alabama's offense and defense when they faced Kentucky and Arkansas. In both our games against Florida and Texas A&M we out-gained each by roughly 100 yards.

2. Tennessee's rushing offense will average between 3.0 and 4.5 yards per carry against Alabama's run defense. How come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Alabama's run defense held both those teams to roughly 2.0 yards per carry. Texas A&M and Florida's run defense in turn held Kentucky and Arkansas to roughly 3.0 yards per carry. That means Florida and Texas A&M's run defenses are roughly 1.0 yards per carry worse than Alabama. In our games against Florida and Texas A&M, we averaged between 4.0 and 5.5 yards per carry. That's 1.0-2.5 yards per carry higher than what they gave up to Arkansas and Kentucky. If we match our production against Florida and Texas A&M in terms of yards per carry over their average against Kentucky and Arkansas, then you're looking at approximately 3.0 yards per carry on the low-end and 4.5 yards per carry on the high-end against Alabama's defense. I would side with the low-end because its hard to imagine getting 4.5 yards per carry against Alabama's run defense.

3. Tennessee's passing offense will average between 8.0 and 8.5 yards per pass attempt against Alabama's passing defense. How come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Alabama's pass defense performed roughly the same as Florida and Texas A&M. Alabama shut down Kentucky's passing offense with the same success Florida did. And Alabama was lit up by Arkansas' pass offense to the same degree Texas A&M was. That means when we face Alabama we're not facing a pass defense that is superior to the pass defenses we've already faced in Florida and Texas A&M. Against Florida we averaged over 9.5 yards per pass attempt. I think that will be hard to replicate. Against Texas A&M we averaged approximately 8.4 yards per pass attempt. I think that level of production is more likely.



This is a long way of saying we're not facing something we haven't seen already. Alabama is not an unbeatable juggernaut. As you can see from the game scores, Florida and Texas A&M had roughly the same success against Kentucky and Arkansas that Alabama did. The only major difference we will see this Saturday is Alabama's rush defense. Its roughly 50% better than the rush defenses we've seen from A&M and Florida. We should expect to average about 1.0 yards per carry less than we normally do. Other than that I don't see any major obstacles Alabama has that we haven't seen before. Their pass defense is comparable to A&M and Florida. Two teams we lit up through the air. Their offense is less efficient running the ball than Texas A&M (who is right now the best rushing team in the SEC) and more efficient throwing the ball than Texas A&M (who didn't really light us up that much throwing the ball).

This will be a high scoring 4 quarter game. We should be able to move the ball on Alabama especially through the air. We should be able to score on them. I expect us to score at least 35 points. Expect Alabama to also score on us. Our run defense will perform better than they did against Texas A&M but our pass defense will struggle a little more than they did against Texas A&M. I like our chances to win as long as we don't lose the turnover battle.

Tennessee - 38
Alabama - 35
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Great read
 
#44
#44
sjt18 said:
Unfortunately, the kind of "logic" used by D4H doesn't actually work.

There are useful patterns that can be pulled from those types of comparisons but not the direct correlations he tried.

Bama's early scheduled has included two good teams. Neither of them look as talented or deep as TAM. Those teams victimized Bama in the pass game but couldn't run the ball. Both are well below UT in rushing O but well above UT in passing O. That's not necessarily good news since pretty much no one has been able to run vs Bama. However, those teams have created a pattern for playing O against Bama that UT has the talent to copy.... plus hopefully run it better.

Probably the biggest thing that might be in UT's advantage is that running QB's have historically given Saban's D's more trouble than those with pro-style QB's. Kent State has a running QB (sort of) but none of Bama's other opponents do. Kelly can run and is effective when he does it but he only runs about 7 times per game including sacks. Dobbs is the first true running QB Bama has faced this year.... and Dobbs has improved throwing the ball.
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I go along with the running qb perspective, sjt and, in fact, with your overall premis as a body. Dobbs gave 'em fits last year and he'll probably occupy their attention so much this time as to leave some opportunities for some nice diversions. I'm glad you're not dismissing the nascent potential of UT'S throw game at this juncture. I envision more guessing by bama as to when to stack the box or blitz or to double up receivers, etc., etc. As of Hurd's absence at aTm leading to a suddenly evolved paradigm in the run game & potential not-before-seen new alignments, bama's DC and all those "analysists" surely won't be able to scheme up for a lot of the stuff they'll be confronting. A bit of it'll be NEW stuff. DeBord's clever at picking up on these hiccups of confusion; when uncertainty pervades a defense's ability to remain aggressive without having to "guess," so let's expect a clever handful of wrinkles that'll free up some deep posts when the run game's stinging them and quick hits over the middle when Bama's D is doubling the outside and dropping those safeties. I'll add as well that, since Halls been back @ RG and Thomas' ankles healed, the O-line's gelling nicely. I like our chances. BTW, D4H's efforts @ redeeming himself aren't cutting it with that weak analysis. A for effort...F for shallowness for not manning up for his early season rant. Sincerity rules those who're wise. AMIRIGHT?
 
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#46
#46
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Alabama and Tennessee have yet to play a common opponent so its hard to stack the two teams up against one another. However, Tennessee has played 2 teams (Texas A&M and Florida) that have played against teams that Alabama has already faced.

Alabama - 34
Kentucky - 6

Florida - 45
Kentucky - 7

Alabama - 49
Arkansas - 30

Texas A&M - 45
Arkansas - 24

After looking at the box scores of the Alabama/Arkansas, Texas A&M/Arkansas, Alabama/Kentucky, and Florida/Kentucky games, I feel comfortable making the following predictions:

1. Tennessee's offense will out-gain Alabama's offense by nearly 100 yards. How Come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Texas A&M and Florida were able to match the yardage output of Alabama's offense and defense when they faced Kentucky and Arkansas. In both our games against Florida and Texas A&M we out-gained each by roughly 100 yards.

2. Tennessee's rushing offense will average between 3.0 and 4.5 yards per carry against Alabama's run defense. How come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Alabama's run defense held both those teams to roughly 2.0 yards per carry. Texas A&M and Florida's run defense in turn held Kentucky and Arkansas to roughly 3.0 yards per carry. That means Florida and Texas A&M's run defenses are roughly 1.0 yards per carry worse than Alabama. In our games against Florida and Texas A&M, we averaged between 4.0 and 5.5 yards per carry. That's 1.0-2.5 yards per carry higher than what they gave up to Arkansas and Kentucky. If we match our production against Florida and Texas A&M in terms of yards per carry over their average against Kentucky and Arkansas, then you're looking at approximately 3.0 yards per carry on the low-end and 4.5 yards per carry on the high-end against Alabama's defense. I would side with the low-end because its hard to imagine getting 4.5 yards per carry against Alabama's run defense.

3. Tennessee's passing offense will average between 8.0 and 8.5 yards per pass attempt against Alabama's passing defense. How come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Alabama's pass defense performed roughly the same as Florida and Texas A&M. Alabama shut down Kentucky's passing offense with the same success Florida did. And Alabama was lit up by Arkansas' pass offense to the same degree Texas A&M was. That means when we face Alabama we're not facing a pass defense that is superior to the pass defenses we've already faced in Florida and Texas A&M. Against Florida we averaged over 9.5 yards per pass attempt. I think that will be hard to replicate. Against Texas A&M we averaged approximately 8.4 yards per pass attempt. I think that level of production is more likely.



This is a long way of saying we're not facing something we haven't seen already. Alabama is not an unbeatable juggernaut. As you can see from the game scores, Florida and Texas A&M had roughly the same success against Kentucky and Arkansas that Alabama did. The only major difference we will see this Saturday is Alabama's rush defense. Its roughly 50% better than the rush defenses we've seen from A&M and Florida. We should expect to average about 1.0 yards per carry less than we normally do. Other than that I don't see any major obstacles Alabama has that we haven't seen before. Their pass defense is comparable to A&M and Florida. Two teams we lit up through the air. Their offense is less efficient running the ball than Texas A&M (who is right now the best rushing team in the SEC) and more efficient throwing the ball than Texas A&M (who didn't really light us up that much throwing the ball).

This will be a high scoring 4 quarter game. We should be able to move the ball on Alabama especially through the air. We should be able to score on them. I expect us to score at least 35 points. Expect Alabama to also score on us. Our run defense will perform better than they did against Texas A&M but our pass defense will struggle a little more than they did against Texas A&M. I like our chances to win as long as we don't lose the turnover battle.

Tennessee - 38
Alabama - 35
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eyes closed just swinging
 
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