Stevorino
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2007
- Messages
- 2,490
- Likes
- 465
I always find it interesting to look back to last year's game when it looks to be a close one and then see what has changed:
** There may be a few factual errors here, I did my best to look into anything I wasn't 100% sure on. Correct me if I'm wrong and I'll gladly own up to it with an edit & explanation. **
--------------------------------
2011 Result: Florida 33, Vols 23
--------------------------------
Going into the game:
Tennessee was coming off of dominating wins over Cincinnati (10-3, 5-2 Big East) and Montana. While Florida was coming off of explosive wins over Florida Atlantic and UAB.
Similar to this year, it was hard to tell at the time based on the wins because it is so early. Florida clearly had a strong defense (allowing only 3 pts in the two wins) and a relatively decent offensive showing (scoring 80 points in two wins).
While Tennessee had played better competition, they scored similarly but allowed far more points.
Remembering the game: The score makes this game look closer than it really was. Tennessee scored in the final 5 minutes, but was clearly out of reach for most of the game, at one point Tennessee was down 30-7.
Tennessee essentially went into shell-shock after Hunter went down in the first quarter. By the end of the first quarter, it looked pretty gloomy as Florida was up 10-0 and we were down our best player.
Brantley was better than Bray on the day. He threw for 213 yards going 14 for 23, 2TDs and 0 INTs. Bray had 26 completions on 48 attempts for 288 yards, 3TDs and 2INTs. Rivera had 71 yards, and DaRick had 62.
Tennessee had negative running yards on the day while Florida had over 100 with Rainey and another 48 with Demps.
Conclusion: The game was over as soon as Hunter went down. But even on paper, this was a Tennessee team that was clearly outmatched. Florida was arguably superior at every position on the day.
While the running game tells the story up front, it's not like the Tennessee passing game was stellar either. When you have 22 incompletions, your passing game is not ready to be leaned on.
--------------------
What has changed:
--------------------
(For both teams, I'm going to assume nobody major is going to go out of the game, as a hunter-like injury is equally possible for both teams)
Going into the game:
It seems both Tennessee and Florida have played a pattycake and a solid team.
While some are now questioning NCSU's quality, there are two pieces of the game that I consider takeaways: Bray's torching of one of the best secondaries in the country and Tennessee's 4 INTs on one of the highest rated QBs in the league.
Florida showed a lot of grit/heart in the win over A&M and really just silenced them in the second half. Other than that, it's hard to take much away as it was A&M's first game. The game was statistically very even except that A&M had a TON of penalties (first game jitters IMO) and Florida had the ball more. Driskel had an efficient day throwing for 162 yards on 13 of 16 passes. Gillislee was solid, but actually not as good in the stat line as I thought - going 83 yards on 14 carried (5.9 average).
What is perhaps more telling about Florida is the win vs. Bowling Green. The total yardage numbers were actually VERY similar, with Florida having about 100 more rushing and BG having about 100 more passing. This game was close into the fourth quarter when a big pass opened the game up for the Gators.
Bowling Green is not good. Their week 2 win came over Idaho - with a margin of victory less than Eastern Washington's in week 1. What happened here for Florida? Is it a sign of things to come or maybe just working out some kinks/playing down to competition? Clearly the defense responded vs. A&M, but the offense performed similarly.
-----------------------
Major Talent & Roster Changes
-----------------------
Florida:
The defense looks reloaded to a non-fan's eyes, and I think we saw their stopping power in the second half vs. A&M. Losing Jenkins at LB is the equivalent of losing AJ, IMO. Even with Jenkins out, the front 7 is sick. I consider their cornerbacks much worse than NCSU's, but their safeties better than NCSUs. I'd consider their defense upgraded from last year on paper.
The offense has a lot of question marks. Gone are Brantley, Demps, and Rainey. Which are your top passers, receivers, and runners. Stepping in aren't necessarily electric guys either. I'm sure many Florida fans like Driskel over Brantley, but for the time being, I think this is downgrade compared to this time last year. I think Driskel will be a better QB than Brantley ever was by the end of the season though (that's not saying much).
Gillislee has had a good start - but this guy is not Rainey/Demps from 2011, in fact he sat behind them up until now, his senior year. The groin injury may or may not be a factor, but regardless, this is a downgrade.
The top two WRs from 2011, Rainey and Debose are gone and buried in the depth chart. I'm not sure what happened to Debose - but he seems to be a non-factor thus far in 2012. Instead returns known quantities that were all around last year. Nobody here is electric or open-field stars that make you grip the couch when they get the ball. Downgrade.
TE Jordan Reed is coming back after a solid 2011 season. I see this and the Oline as strengths on the offense.
Florida returns Sturgis at kicker who is fantastic. Because he's back another year, I'd say this is an upgrade. Without Rainey/Demps returning, I would say their special teams returns are a downgrade.
On paper, Florida is a worse team than they were in 2011, IMO. Their defense could be downright nasty with that front 7, but the offense has so many question marks, not to mention the new coordinator. The last time Florida had this little star power in the skill positions may have been in the early 2000's before Caldwell, Baker, and Harvin.
----------
Tennessee
----------
Offensively, Tennessee is significantly better at every single position across the board. Bray is back and more mature and knowledgeable of the playbook. He has made this very evident with his check-downs and throw-aways so far. His first two games have been ridiculously impressive, especially against a veteran and heralded NCSU secondary. I don't think we could possibly see 22 incompletions again on Saturday, like we did last year. Hunter (a year older) and CP are a much more daunting duo than Da'Rick and White Lightning last year. CP could be the most electric offensive playmaker we've had since Kelley Washington in 2001. The backs are better this year, IMO, but not something that is a huge upgrade. O-Line is much better and experienced.
Defensive talent is upgraded across the board. Almost every key contributor from last year returns, minus Malik Jackson who was a stud. The real question here is in regards to the defense knowing the new system: are the players ready for the big game in Sal's D? Early returns are favorable, but it's still hard to say.
Tennessee's field goal kicking is a huge question mark with Brodus coming in. The guy has been solid to date, but unproven at range. If the offense doesn't come out in high gear, a low score affair is not good for the Vols. Darr is improved from last year and kickoffs are better as well. Returns are MUCH better with Young & CP, best they've been in over half a decade.
---------
Conclusion
---------
Tennessee is a better team across the board. Every position seems to have upgraded, some by a huge margin.
Florida looks just as good or better on defense, but significantly worse off on offense.
-----------
My Prediction
-----------
I was much more concerned about Tennessee's performance going into NCSU than going into Florida. While NCSU doesn't appear to be as good as advertised, Tennessee has looked better across the board. At week 3, I think this could be Tennessee's best team since 2004.
Florida, after 2 showings, looks to me like the worst team they've fielded in 20 years. It looks worse than the last 2 years and maybe worse than 2004's (minus having Zooker as head coach). That statement is only possible because Florida has been SO GOOD for the last 20 years. They've only undershot 8 wins twice since the 80's (both being 7 win seasons).
Tennessee should win, and I wouldn't be suprised if it was by the largest margin since 1992.
** There may be a few factual errors here, I did my best to look into anything I wasn't 100% sure on. Correct me if I'm wrong and I'll gladly own up to it with an edit & explanation. **
--------------------------------
2011 Result: Florida 33, Vols 23
--------------------------------
Going into the game:
Tennessee was coming off of dominating wins over Cincinnati (10-3, 5-2 Big East) and Montana. While Florida was coming off of explosive wins over Florida Atlantic and UAB.
Similar to this year, it was hard to tell at the time based on the wins because it is so early. Florida clearly had a strong defense (allowing only 3 pts in the two wins) and a relatively decent offensive showing (scoring 80 points in two wins).
While Tennessee had played better competition, they scored similarly but allowed far more points.
Remembering the game: The score makes this game look closer than it really was. Tennessee scored in the final 5 minutes, but was clearly out of reach for most of the game, at one point Tennessee was down 30-7.
Tennessee essentially went into shell-shock after Hunter went down in the first quarter. By the end of the first quarter, it looked pretty gloomy as Florida was up 10-0 and we were down our best player.
Brantley was better than Bray on the day. He threw for 213 yards going 14 for 23, 2TDs and 0 INTs. Bray had 26 completions on 48 attempts for 288 yards, 3TDs and 2INTs. Rivera had 71 yards, and DaRick had 62.
Tennessee had negative running yards on the day while Florida had over 100 with Rainey and another 48 with Demps.
Conclusion: The game was over as soon as Hunter went down. But even on paper, this was a Tennessee team that was clearly outmatched. Florida was arguably superior at every position on the day.
While the running game tells the story up front, it's not like the Tennessee passing game was stellar either. When you have 22 incompletions, your passing game is not ready to be leaned on.
--------------------
What has changed:
--------------------
(For both teams, I'm going to assume nobody major is going to go out of the game, as a hunter-like injury is equally possible for both teams)
Going into the game:
It seems both Tennessee and Florida have played a pattycake and a solid team.
While some are now questioning NCSU's quality, there are two pieces of the game that I consider takeaways: Bray's torching of one of the best secondaries in the country and Tennessee's 4 INTs on one of the highest rated QBs in the league.
Florida showed a lot of grit/heart in the win over A&M and really just silenced them in the second half. Other than that, it's hard to take much away as it was A&M's first game. The game was statistically very even except that A&M had a TON of penalties (first game jitters IMO) and Florida had the ball more. Driskel had an efficient day throwing for 162 yards on 13 of 16 passes. Gillislee was solid, but actually not as good in the stat line as I thought - going 83 yards on 14 carried (5.9 average).
What is perhaps more telling about Florida is the win vs. Bowling Green. The total yardage numbers were actually VERY similar, with Florida having about 100 more rushing and BG having about 100 more passing. This game was close into the fourth quarter when a big pass opened the game up for the Gators.
Bowling Green is not good. Their week 2 win came over Idaho - with a margin of victory less than Eastern Washington's in week 1. What happened here for Florida? Is it a sign of things to come or maybe just working out some kinks/playing down to competition? Clearly the defense responded vs. A&M, but the offense performed similarly.
-----------------------
Major Talent & Roster Changes
-----------------------
Florida:
The defense looks reloaded to a non-fan's eyes, and I think we saw their stopping power in the second half vs. A&M. Losing Jenkins at LB is the equivalent of losing AJ, IMO. Even with Jenkins out, the front 7 is sick. I consider their cornerbacks much worse than NCSU's, but their safeties better than NCSUs. I'd consider their defense upgraded from last year on paper.
The offense has a lot of question marks. Gone are Brantley, Demps, and Rainey. Which are your top passers, receivers, and runners. Stepping in aren't necessarily electric guys either. I'm sure many Florida fans like Driskel over Brantley, but for the time being, I think this is downgrade compared to this time last year. I think Driskel will be a better QB than Brantley ever was by the end of the season though (that's not saying much).
Gillislee has had a good start - but this guy is not Rainey/Demps from 2011, in fact he sat behind them up until now, his senior year. The groin injury may or may not be a factor, but regardless, this is a downgrade.
The top two WRs from 2011, Rainey and Debose are gone and buried in the depth chart. I'm not sure what happened to Debose - but he seems to be a non-factor thus far in 2012. Instead returns known quantities that were all around last year. Nobody here is electric or open-field stars that make you grip the couch when they get the ball. Downgrade.
TE Jordan Reed is coming back after a solid 2011 season. I see this and the Oline as strengths on the offense.
Florida returns Sturgis at kicker who is fantastic. Because he's back another year, I'd say this is an upgrade. Without Rainey/Demps returning, I would say their special teams returns are a downgrade.
On paper, Florida is a worse team than they were in 2011, IMO. Their defense could be downright nasty with that front 7, but the offense has so many question marks, not to mention the new coordinator. The last time Florida had this little star power in the skill positions may have been in the early 2000's before Caldwell, Baker, and Harvin.
----------
Tennessee
----------
Offensively, Tennessee is significantly better at every single position across the board. Bray is back and more mature and knowledgeable of the playbook. He has made this very evident with his check-downs and throw-aways so far. His first two games have been ridiculously impressive, especially against a veteran and heralded NCSU secondary. I don't think we could possibly see 22 incompletions again on Saturday, like we did last year. Hunter (a year older) and CP are a much more daunting duo than Da'Rick and White Lightning last year. CP could be the most electric offensive playmaker we've had since Kelley Washington in 2001. The backs are better this year, IMO, but not something that is a huge upgrade. O-Line is much better and experienced.
Defensive talent is upgraded across the board. Almost every key contributor from last year returns, minus Malik Jackson who was a stud. The real question here is in regards to the defense knowing the new system: are the players ready for the big game in Sal's D? Early returns are favorable, but it's still hard to say.
Tennessee's field goal kicking is a huge question mark with Brodus coming in. The guy has been solid to date, but unproven at range. If the offense doesn't come out in high gear, a low score affair is not good for the Vols. Darr is improved from last year and kickoffs are better as well. Returns are MUCH better with Young & CP, best they've been in over half a decade.
---------
Conclusion
---------
Tennessee is a better team across the board. Every position seems to have upgraded, some by a huge margin.
Florida looks just as good or better on defense, but significantly worse off on offense.
-----------
My Prediction
-----------
I was much more concerned about Tennessee's performance going into NCSU than going into Florida. While NCSU doesn't appear to be as good as advertised, Tennessee has looked better across the board. At week 3, I think this could be Tennessee's best team since 2004.
Florida, after 2 showings, looks to me like the worst team they've fielded in 20 years. It looks worse than the last 2 years and maybe worse than 2004's (minus having Zooker as head coach). That statement is only possible because Florida has been SO GOOD for the last 20 years. They've only undershot 8 wins twice since the 80's (both being 7 win seasons).
Tennessee should win, and I wouldn't be suprised if it was by the largest margin since 1992.
