Clinch SEC East by Nov 19th?

[ajvol01]

Incorrect it doesn't matter what happens if Florida doesn't lose another game. UF has to lose 4 sec games for uk to win the east uf owns the tiebreaker

he asked about being tied with SC at 4-4. Meaning SC beat Florida.

I assumed that meant UF also lost to LSU.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Titan, the answer is no. Here's why:

Your question can be re-stated this way: can we clinch the East even with a loss to Vandy? Because that's the game we won't have played by the 19th of November. Whatever scenario we come up with has to include the possibility of that being a loss.

If we lose to Vandy, but win Kentucky and Mizzou, we'll end the season 4-4 in the SEC. That means the teams we beat in this scenario (FL, UGa, Ky, Mizzou) have to end the season 4-4 or worse. The teams that beat us in the scenario (USCe and Vandy) have to end the season 3-5 or worse.

But here's the problem:

• FL would have to lose both their remaining SEC games to be at 4-4. That includes USCe.
• USCe would have to lose to FL next weekend, to get them down to 3-5.

See the conflict? Florida can't lose to USCe, AND USCe lose to Florida. But both are requirements of this scenario.

At this point, the only remaining chance is this: you could have a 4-way tie in the East, with FL, Ky, USCe, and the Vols all at 4-4. Now the tie-breakers kick in:

• First Tie-breaker: Head-to-head. Solves nothing, since FL lost to the Vols lost to USCe lost to Ky lost to FL...round robin of losses.
• Second Tie-breaker: Division record. This one knocks out Kentucky, because the Vols, FL and USCe are all 4-2 in the East, while Ky is 3-3.
• So now cycle back to First Tie-breaker: Head-to-head. And this ends our chances because in this scenario USCe will have beaten both FL and us. So USCe goes to the SEC CG as the first team ever to get to Atlanta with a 4-4 conference record.

So bottom line is, we have to win out for a shot at the East.

The good news is, if we DO win out, the only other requirement is that FL lose one more game, whether to USCe or to LSU. Everything else falls in place with us winning out.

 

[gunner]

UT needs to beat the brakes of off their last 3 opponents if they are going to the SECCG and challenge Bama or the West Champion.

 

[Titan05]

Titan, the answer is no. Here's the short version of why:

Your question can be re-stated this way: can we clinch the East even with a loss to Vandy? Because that's the game we won't have played by the 19th of November. Whatever scenario we come up with has to include the possibility of that being a loss.

If we lose to Vandy, but win Kentucky and Mizzou, we'll end the season 4-4 in the SEC. That means the teams we beat in this scenario (FL, UGa, Ky, Mizzou) have to end the season 4-4 or worse. The teams that beat us in the scenario (USCe and Vandy) have to end the season 3-5 or worse.

But here's the problem:

• FL would have to lose both their remaining SEC games to be at 4-4. That includes USCe.
• USCe would have to lose to FL next weekend, to get them down to 3-5.

See the conflict? Florida can't lose to USCe, AND USCe lose to Florida. But both are requirements of this scenario.

So bottom line is, we have to win out for a shot at the East.

The good news is, if we DO win out, the only other requirement is that FL lose one more game, whether to USCe or to LSU. Everything else falls in place with us winning out.

Thanks for the thought out response but you're not applying the tiebreakers correctly in this scenario. 2-team tiebreakers wouldn't come into play at all. With 3 or more teams, the first tiebreaker is record among the other tied teams. UT would at least tie if not win that tiebreaker against all other teams.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Thanks for the thought out response but you're not applying the tiebreakers correctly in this scenario. 2-team tiebreakers wouldn't come into play at all. With 3 or more teams, the first tiebreaker is record among the other tied teams. UT would at least tie if not win that tiebreaker against all other teams.

Haha, Titan, sorry, I tend to write my responses in pieces when they're long, and hadn't finished yet. I have now, though.

 

[golfballs]

Ehh, they'll be lucky to win out. That's the only thing Tennessee needs to focus on.

Lucky? No. They're fully expected to win out

 

[Titan05]

Haha, Titan, sorry, I tend to write my responses in pieces when they're long, and hadn't finished yet. I have now, though.

Thanks again. Georgia beating Auburn Saturday makes it a 5 way tie. UT would win the first tiebreaker with a 3-1 record and would go to Atlanta.

 

[VFFL@THE BEACH]

Florida looks terrible and has bad team chemistry, probably as bad as ours but not exposed yet. This has been brewing since the summer but not exposed because they took a month off for the hurricane. I would not be surprised if they drop both games, definitely the one to LSU. We played tougher west opponents. Coach O owes one as well. USCe is playing extremely inspired but I think they have too many losses.

I really think we have the best chance to win the east and honestly why not. Our bad loss was to the bammers. Not sure what happened there but we were really banged up and had a bad attitude coaching staff down.... We have a double overtime loss to a one loss west team and 3 point trap game loss. Not a good resume but better than anything else in the east...

Kentucky will challenge us but we should pull out the win at home.

Go Vols!

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Thanks again. Georgia beating Auburn Saturday makes it a 5 way tie. UT would win the first tiebreaker with a 3-1 record and would go to Atlanta.

Ah, good catch. So, theoretically possible.

I've always wanted to see a hypothetical scenario that got a 4-4 team to the SEC CG. Well, there we have one.

 

[sameolvol]

UT wins out (which I believe will be the case), UF barely beats USCjr and loses to LSU.....then we're looking at the most bullet-proof route to Atlanta. Remember: Barring further injuries to starters or key backups, we've got some guys coming back from their injuries=a healthier O line, Cam coming back, etc., plus more quality snaps to some of those uber-talented youngsters (Wow! Kongbo, Taylor, Bates............and Bain!). As in the past two years, our guys will be harder to beat in November and December than the early season. Just win baby! AMIRIGHT?:yes: