Climbing Toward the Elite - Team 119's Statistical Improvements vs 118 and 117

[Rifleman]

I have gathered the stats for 32 key categories to compare Butch Jones' first three Vol teams and it is clear that greater progress has been made than even the +2 wins each year might suggest.

I have grouped the stats into categories by level of improvement and they are ordered from largest to smallest improvement.

1) There were 15 categories where improvements over the prior year were significant and substantial, with the largest improvements primarily on offense.

Phase - Category - 2013 Vols Rank - 2014 Vols Rank - 2015 Vols Rank

Offense - Interceptions Thrown - 107th (17) - 84th (14)-3rd (5)
Offense - Rushing Offense - 44th (188.4 yards) - 89th (146.4 yards)-20th (223.7 yards)
Offense - Sacks Allowed - 21st (1.25 per game) - 117th (3.31 per game)-53rd (1.85 per game)
Offense/Special Teams - Turnovers Lost - 87th (24) - 61st (22)-4th (12)
Offense - Third Down Conversion % - 92nd (35.8%) - 78th (38.9%)-31st (46.0%)
Offense - Total Offense - 102nd (353.3 yards) - 90th (370.5 yards)-52nd (422.3 yards)
Offense - Scoring Offense - 94th (23.8 pts) - 62nd (28.9 pts)-29th (35.2 pts)
Special Teams - Punt Returns - 51st (8.94 yards) - 37th (9.68 yards)-4th (17.18 yards)
Offense - Yards per Completed Pass - 115th (10.36 yards) - 116th (10.37 yards)-85th (11.74 yards)
Defense - Third Down Conversion Defense - 91st (42.5% Allowed) - 33rd (34.4% Allowed)-2nd (27.6% Allowed)
Special Teams - Kickoff Returns - 35th (23.27 yards) - 30th (22.69 yards)-1st (33.41 yards)
Offense - Fourth Down Conversion % - 76th (45.5%) - 33rd (58.3%)-6th (76.5%)
ALL - Turnover Margin - 54th (+ 0.08 per game) - 53rd (+ 0.15 per game)-28th (+ 0.54 per game)
Defense - Rushing Defense - 100th (207.3 ypg) - 65th (168.4 ypg)-45th (151.6 ypg)
Defense - Scoring Defense - 78th (29.0 pts) - 35th (24.2 pts)-16th (20.0 pts)


2)There were 6 categories where the Vols were about the same statistically as in 2014.

Phase - Category - 2013 Vols Rank - 2014 Vols Rank - 2015 Vols Rank


Offense - Tackles for Loss Allowed - 37th (5.25 per game) - 122nd (7.77 per game)-108th (7.08 per game)
Special Teams - Kickoff Return Defense - 118th (25.43 yards) - 23rd (18.81 yards)-14th (18.24 yards)
Defense - Passing Efficiency Defense - 58th (125.47 rating) - 24th (115.67 rating)-16th (111.02 rating)
Offense - Passing Efficiency - 111th (105.48 rating) - 70th (126.64 rating)-64th (130.19 rating)
Special Teams - Punting Net Yards - 28th (38.48 yards) - 36th (38.59 yards)-31st (38.98 yds)
Defense - Total Defense - 83rd (418.4 yards per game) - 36th (364.6 yards per game)-36th (362 yards per game)

3)Finally, there were 11 categories where the Vols were better last year, with the majority of the under-performance coming from the defensive side of the ball.

Phase - Category - 2013 Vols Rank - 2014 Vols Rank - 2015 Vols Rank

ALL - Penalty Yards per Game - 21st (37.92 yards) - 6th (34.15 yards)-18th (40.77)
Defense - Sacks - 99th (1.5 per game) - 29th (2.69 per game)-46th (2.31 per game)
Offense - Passing Offense - 109th (164.9 ypg) - 70th (224.2 ypg)-92nd (198.6 ypg)
Defense - Passing Yards Allowed - 27th (211.1) - 23rd (196.2 )-47th (210.4 yards)
Offense - Completion Percentage - 91st (55.5%) - 32nd (62.0%)-59th (59.3%)
Defense/Special Teams - Turnovers Gained - 35th (25) - 34th (24)-73rd (19 )
Defense - Passes Intercepted - 40th (14) - 15th (16)-56th (12)
Defense - Tackles for Loss - 90th (5.4 per game) - 21st (7.0 per game)-74th (5.8 per game)
Offense - Red Zone Offense - 100th (77.3%) - 5th (92.6%)-70th (83.3%)
Special Teams - Punt Return Defense - 92nd (9.91 yards) - 11th (3.23 yards)-101st (11.26 yards)
Defense - Fourth Down Conversion Defense - 117th (75.00% Allowed) - 26th (40.0% Allowed)-124th (75% Allowed)


The most glaring thing I see here is that our defense did not generate enough big plays. The loss of Maggitt was a huge part of that, obviously.

We still have room for improvement in a number of areas in all phases. However, those next steps, if the Vols can take them, will finally make them an elite college football team again.

 

[Rudy123]

Just based on wins and based on the teams attitude, we have improved to where I thought we should be.
In July, I predicted that we would lose to Oklahoma, Florida & Alabama and finish 10 - 3, to include a bowl win. The Arkansas game messed my prediction up.

Next season, we will lose to Florida & Alabama in the regular season. We will play Alabama again in the S.E.C. Championship game and beat them.
However; with 2 losses, we will not qualify for the Play-Off's.
We will get a very, very good bowl game though. Maybe the Sugar Bowl and we will win that game also to finish the season 12- 2.

 

[Vols4ever]

Wow my head hurts... but overall we are going in the right direction except 4th down conversion allowed

 

[Rudy123]

Next season had better be our season. After next season, we lose Kamara, Dobbs, Hurd, Barnett, Sutton, JRM, North etc. etc.to either graduation or to the NFL. It is now or never!

 

[Halph66]

There is always room for improvement. The coaches have shown that they address the deficiencies each year (IMO). Some is of that is talent, some of that is strategy/philosophy. The deficiencies keep getting less and less, which means we are getting closer and closer.

GBO! The future is bright.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Next season had better be our season. After next season, we lose Kamara, Dobbs, Hurd, Barnett, Sutton, JRM, North etc. etc.to either graduation or to the NFL. It is now or never!

...and have right behind them Dormady, Kelly, Young, Phillips, Gaulden, Sapp, Williams, etc. And have behind THEM Guarantano...world without end. From this point on, EVERY year is a potential championship year for the Vols.

 

[Special Ed]

The rest of the SEC will accuse us of being elitists.

 

[jwptc]

Solid analysis, Rifleman. Thank you. You have to be pleased with the rebuild Butch and Co. have brought forth. Onward and upward!

 

[ReaderVol]

Good rundown Rifleman. Hard to argue that player progress hasn't been very good. The team is in very good hands and is pointed straight up. The future is bright at UT.

 

[VOLinPD]

Next season had better be our season. After next season, we lose Kamara, Dobbs, Hurd, Barnett, Sutton, JRM, North etc. etc.to either graduation or to the NFL. It is now or never!

The same thing was said in 1997, and we all know how that turned out....

 

[berryvol]

There needs to be a "right on pace" choice in the poll

 

[Rifleman]

There needs to be a "right on pace" choice in the poll

Commit or GTFO.

 

[daj2576]

Just based on wins and based on the teams attitude, we have improved to where I thought we should be.
In July, I predicted that we would lose to Oklahoma, Florida & Alabama and finish 10 - 3, to include a bowl win. The Arkansas game messed my prediction up.

Next season, we will lose to Florida & Alabama in the regular season. We will play Alabama again in the S.E.C. Championship game and beat them.
However; with 2 losses, we will not qualify for the Play-Off's.
We will get a very, very good bowl game though. Maybe the Sugar Bowl and we will win that game also to finish the season 12- 2.

You can pick wins without even knowing who a team will be playing, yet aren't even certain what bowl game it will be played in? That's fantastic!

You need to change your name to Nostra-Vol-us.

The last time I saw a prediction this good, a man travelled to San Antonio to look for his missing bike in the basement of the Alamo.

 

[Rifleman]

Another way to quantify our improvement is to average all these rankings mentioned in the opening post.

Year - Average FBS Statistical Ranking

2013 - 75th
2014 - 52nd
2015 - 44th

So far that is a 31 spot improvement.

 

[Rifleman]

Another way to quantify our improvement is to average all these rankings mentioned in the opening post.

Year - Average FBS Statistical Ranking

2013 - 75th
2014 - 52nd
2015 - 44th

So far that is a 31 spot improvement.

A caveat to this might be Strength of Schedule (SOS). What if our SOS weakened? Then improvement in our national statistical ranks would be expected.

I checked a good stats site--teamrankings.com--to get their ranking of our schedule for these 3 years.

Year - SOS Rank

2013 - 33rd
2014 - 24th
2015 - 12th

As you can see, our schedule strength has been rising at the same time that we've posted these improvements. That makes these statistical gains that much more impressive.

 

[Rifleman]

One of my favorite stats is ESPN's Team Efficiencies, which you can read more about here: Team Efficiencies - 2015 - ESPN

Here's where we rank for that stat the past 3 years:

Year - Team Efficiencies Rank

2015 - 10
2014 - 31
2013 - 61

This shows steady improvement.



For comparison, here is the same stat for the Kiffin/Dooley tenure:

Year - Team Efficiencies Rank

2012 - 61
2011 - 50
2010 - 44
2009 - 34

This shows steady destruction of the program.

 

[VolPack22]

Biggest thing I saw was the Red Zone offense compared to last year. We were 5th last year and 70th this year. That was the difference between being a one loss or undefeated team. If we convert at anywhere close to last year we really could have been a playoff team or at least Sugar Bowl. But that's ok, next year is the year we put everything together and have a magical season. This will probably be the longest offseason we have gone through in quite some time.

 

[Chilmonty]

Wow my head hurts... but overall we are going in the right direction except 4th down conversion allowed

Overall MUCH improved but that single stat above cost us 2 games last year! :banghead2:



.

 

[photovol]

...and have right behind them Dormady, Kelly, Young, Phillips, Gaulden, Sapp, Williams, etc. And have behind THEM Guarantano...world without end. From this point on, EVERY year is a potential championship year for the Vols.

Provided Butch Jones can continue to recruit top 10 classes on a consistent basis

 

[photovol]

The rest of the SEC will accuse us of being elitists.

One can only dream, no?

 

[OWB]

Good post. Thanks.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

A caveat to this might be Strength of Schedule (SOS). What if our SOS weakened? Then improvement in our national statistical ranks would be expected.

I checked a good stats site--teamrankings.com--to get their ranking of our schedule for these 3 years.

Year - SOS Rank

2013 - 33rd
2014 - 24th
2015 - 12th

As you can see, our schedule strength has been rising at the same time that we've posted these improvements. That makes these statistical gains that much more impressive.

Good point, Rifleman. And watch for our SoS to dive next year. Real good chance that only two of the teams on our schedule will be ranked going into the season: Bama and Georgia.

Florida, A&M, even Va Tech could make it into the Top 25 by then, but as of right now, none of them are making the "way too early" lists.

With only two ranked opponents, we're going to have a middling SoS. Somewhere in the 40s, 50s, or maybe even 60s.

Flipping that coin over, that means our chances of running the table, or at least getting to 10-2 or 11-1, are much higher than they would be if we'd been playing five teams ranked higher than us again this year. :good!:

 

[newvol12]

Just based on wins and based on the teams attitude, we have improved to where I thought we should be.
In July, I predicted that we would lose to Oklahoma, Florida & Alabama and finish 10 - 3, to include a bowl win. The Arkansas game messed my prediction up.

Next season, we will lose to Florida & Alabama in the regular season. We will play Alabama again in the S.E.C. Championship game and beat them.
However; with 2 losses, we will not qualify for the Play-Off's.
We will get a very, very good bowl game though. Maybe the Sugar Bowl and we will win that game also to finish the season 12- 2.

So what 3 SEC games is Florida going to lose to have us ahead of them to make it to the Championship game?