I agree with this. Those in tier 3 will have years when they are competitive, and the schedule is in their favor. Unlike others I don't automatically put Texas and OU in tier 1. They are tier 2 until they can prove they can survive more than one game against teams in the SEC.
I do think with the addition of the teams and the disbanding of the east / west divisions and scheduling which will no longer favor UGA, we will finally see if Kirby really is that good of a coach or if he just benefited from starting with a loaded team. Saban will eventually retire - you can tell he doesn't like the new rules at all because NIL, the transfer portal and the monster conferences are leveling things. None of those who have been mentioned as replacements have been able to beat him which means that are not him.
Frankly, going all-time, I think Oklahoma belongs in Tier 1 and Texas belongs in Tier 2. Oklahoma is down right now but they won 14 out of last 20 Big12 titles or something insane like that and Oklahoma typically beats Texas.