I don't disagree with your reasoning. Youth votes seldom materialize and I am not sure the youth vote has ever decided an election. But you are talking about regional elections and not national. I think the chances are higher for them to impact locally rather than nationally.
I dont know that it will impact youth vote so much as crystalize so many young who are looking for
something worth living (and dying) for in a world that offers little meaning. The campus institutions are ideologically hostile and that is like catnip to younger minds. I think his name will become an avatar for young people to rally to at colleges. It would not surprise me if Turning Point does not triple or quadruple in size in the next few years and it was fairly big already.
Here you had a young man who from all we can glean was an absolute icon of what everyone of those kids would hope to become. Had been a HS sports star, had married the state beauty queen, had two beautiful kids, founded and now, only 31yo, running a multi-million dollar organization, where politicians and business leaders call him
their friend, with a very public presence and before his death, mildly famous. He had strong beliefs that, by every account, he lived personally (no skeletons) and in spite of constant threats on his life, was willing to wade out in the crowd in order to perhaps "save" one.
He just had a national eulogy that most Presidents would be lucky to get. He died in a very public way, with honor and glory, fast and without much pain. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW THAT LOOKS TO A YOUNG MIND WANTING SOMEONE TO FOLLOW? Thank God Charlie Kirk's whole spiel was conversation over violence or a true civil war might be underway.
As someone has seen many things come and go, sometimes its easy to overlook things in the moment but I dont think we can yet estimate the impact this is going to have on not just the midterms but an entire generation of young people - not just in the near term but across the passage of time.
Je suis Charlie Kirk