CBS Sports- Dobbs a Top 10 QB for 2017 Draft

#51
#51
Lol, KB hard to believe you of all people gave D4H this assist at a slam dunk! I love Dobbs as a Vol, I'm not convinced the young man has what it takes to be a starting NFL QB or even wants to be one. Time will tell.

Haha! I like you am a huge Dobbs fan, I love the kid. Guess I posted this because I think more of Josh than I get sick of arguing with D4H. Dobbs deserves the pub.

Also, this article more accurately portrays Josh where he actually stands among qbs nationally. Yes, he's a top 10 QB, but no, he's not the best QB in the country, worthy of the number one overall pick like D4H would have us all believe.
 
#52
#52
If he needs to improve his consistency, then he's by definition not accurate enough. I agree he'll be drafted, only question is when.

His worst year as far as accuracy is 59.5 %. That includes a lot of drops and a whole bunch of throwaways against pressure. He is accurate. He can have a lull where he throws a bad pass of two. Overall he is accurate though. The top two qbs drafted this year only completed 64%. Most of the other drafted qbs completed 54-64 % of their passes. Only Paxton Lynch and Hogan were above 65%. Dobbs can definitely improve. He isn't inaccurate like people seem to believe though.

CBSsports draft prospect tracker actually has Dobbs as the number 3 qb.

NFL Draft - 2017 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com
 
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#53
#53
His worst year as far as accuracy is 59.5 %. That includes a lot of drops and a whole bunch of throwaways against pressure. He is accurate. He can have a lull where he throws a bad pass of two. Overall he is accurate though. The top two qbs drafted this year only completed 64%. Most of the other drafted qbs completed 54-64 % of their passes. Only Paxton Lynch and Hogan were above 65%. Dobbs can definitely improve. He isn't inaccurate like people seem to believe though.

CBSsports draft prospect tracker actually has Dobbs as the number 3 qb.

NFL Draft - 2017 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

His 59.5 comp % last year also included a majority of WR, slip and bubble screens. There's a reason why his yards per attempt was so low, a paltry 6.7. Goff not only completed 64.5% of his passes, but he did so while averaging nearly 9 yards per throw, which is a double whammy when comparing him to Josh.

You said Josh is accurate, just not consistent. I've said you cant be considered an accurate passer UNLESS you can do it consistently. Put another way, if you have the ability to make an accurate throw, like Josh does, then that's great. But if you can't repeat it, you can't consistently make that same throw so that your completion % isn't much higher than 59.5%, then you're not an accurate passer. Then throw in the fact, again, that the majority of his throws are horizontal or within 5 yards of the los, and not down the field, and what do we have? It's similar to judging a pitcher. If a guy can throw a strike while throwing 90 mph, that's great. But if he can't consistently pound the strike zone and get guys out, is he a good pitcher? The answer is obviously no.

Josh is an outstanding SEC QB, but he is not an outstanding collegiate passer. He's just not, and everybody knows it. He's capable of making some outstanding throws, no doubt about it, we've all seen it. He just hasn't shown the ability to make all the throws consistently like most all the elite collegiate qbs can IMO. And, IMHO, that's the only reason why he's number 8 on the list and not in the top 3-4.
 
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#54
#54
His 59.5 comp % last year also included a majority of WR, slip and bubble screens. There's a reason why his yards per attempt was so low, a paltry 6.7. Goff not only completed 64.5% of his passes, but he did so while averaging nearly 9 yards per throw, which is a double whammy when comparing him to Josh.

You said Josh is accurate, just not consistent. I've said you cant be considered an accurate passer UNLESS you can do it consistently. Put another way, if you have the ability to make an accurate throw, like Josh is, then that's great. But if you can't repeat it, you can't consistently make that same throw so that your completion % isn't much higher than 59.5%, then you're not an accurate passer. Then throw in the fact, again, that the majority of his throws are horizontal or within 5 yards of the los, and not down the field, and what do we have? It's similar to judging a pitcher. If a guy can throw a strike while throwing 90 mph, that's great. But if he can't consistently pound the strike zone and get guys out, is he a good pitcher? The answer is obviously no.

Josh is an outstanding SEC QB, but he is not an outstanding collegiate passer. He's just not, and everybody knows it. He's capable of making some outstanding throws, no doubt about it, we've all seen it. He just hasn't shown the ability to make all the throws consistently like most all the elite collegiate qbs can IMO. And, IMHO, that's the only reason why he's number 8 on the list and not in the top 3-4.

Look at the actual draft prospect rankings. He is number three. 1. Chad Kelly 2. C.J. Beathard 3. Josh Dobbs 4. Seth Russell .

NFL Draft - 2017 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com


Goff was also the number one pick. He should have better stats. Goff also threw way more ints and had 5 in one game. Dobbs is smart and throws the ball away a lot instead of forcing it downfield would raise his ypa but also his int rate. He has shown he can make all the throws. He just won't force thing that are not there and we have had some conservative game plans. He still isn't that far off from what a bunch of drafted qbs did. Dobbs and Hackenburg, who was taken in the second round had almost identical stats this year. I'm not really comparing him to the first round qbs. He has just as good or better passing stats as a lot of qbs drafted rounds 2-5 the last few years though. I think people seem to believe all drafted qbs throw for 67% and 3000 plus. They really don't. A lot have number like Dobbs had. Most qbs number are built on bs completing short passes and the wrs making something happen. Peyton and Brady both qb this way.
 
#55
#55
Christian McCaffrey is also not going in the 1st round. Just because you're a heisman contender, doesn't make you a first rounder (as Derrick Henry found out). McCaffrey doesn't have the build of an every down back. He'll go 2nd round at best.

He's 6'0, 200 pounds ... And he'll surely add weight.

He's got the build.
 
#56
#56
Look at the actual draft prospect rankings. He is number three. 1. Chad Kelly 2. C.J. Beathard 3. Josh Dobbs 4. Seth Russell .

NFL Draft - 2017 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com


Goff was also the number one pick. He should have better stats. Goff also threw way more ints and had 5 in one game. Dobbs is smart and throws the ball away a lot instead of forcing it downfield would raise his ypa but also his int rate. He has shown he can make all the throws. He just won't force thing that are not there and we have had some conservative game plans. He still isn't that far off from what a bunch of drafted qbs did. Dobbs and Hackenburg, who was taken in the second round had almost identical stats this year. I'm not really comparing him to the first round qbs. He has just as good or better passing stats as a lot of qbs drafted rounds 2-5 the last few years though. I think people seem to believe all drafted qbs throw for 67% and 3000 plus. They really don't. A lot have number like Dobbs had. Most qbs number are built on bs completing short passes and the wrs making something happen. Peyton and Brady both qb this way.

Hard to take this ranking seriously. D Watson not even mentioned. I think this may have been a list of rising seniors with no rising Jr's on the list.
 
#57
#57
Per Walterfootball, here are the QB's rated ahead of Dobbs. Hard to argue against any of these. I think Kaaya, may wind up the best of the bunch:

Deshaun Watson*, QB, Clemson
Height: 6-2. Weight: 205.
Projected 40 Time: 4.60.
Projected Round (2017): 1-3.

Brad Kaaya*, QB, Miami
Height: 6-4. Weight: 209.
Projected 40 Time: 4.72.
Projected Round (2017): 1-3.

Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss
Height: 6-2. Weight: 215.
Projected 40 Time: 4.75.
Projected Round (2017): 2-4.

Luke Falk*, QB, Washington State
Height: 6-4. Weight: 205.
Projected 40 Time: 4.79.
Projected Round (2017): 2-4.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Height: 6-2. Weight: 214.
Projected 40 Time: 4.71.
Projected Round (2017): 3-5.
 
#58
#58
Hard to take this ranking seriously. D Watson not even mentioned. I think this may have been a list of rising seniors with no rising Jr's on the list.

Agree, thought the same thing, something ain't right. If Watson ain't at the top of the list, it ain't legit.
 
#59
#59
SI.com had Barnett being drafted in the 9th slot by Indy for their 2017 mock draft.

This was not the article I was referring to...neither was the cbs mock that KBvol put up...but it was just to point out that ppl put way too much stock into media hype.
 
#60
#60
Maybe I'm the only one, but does anyone else have a feeling he's not even really interested in the NFL? It's a totally believable notion for me that he skips the draft all together and goes straight to Whitney & Pratt or whatever, where his admitted real passion is. For whatever reason, I get the feeling (based on nothing concrete, of course) he's more interested in becoming an engineer, where he'll earn plenty good money doing something he's passionate about with a much lower risk of concussions. Is that crazy?
 
#61
#61
Maybe I'm the only one, but does anyone else have a feeling he's not even really interested in the NFL? It's a totally believable notion for me that he skips the draft all together and goes straight to Whitney & Pratt or whatever, where his admitted real passion is. For whatever reason, I get the feeling (based on nothing concrete, of course) he's more interested in becoming an engineer, where he'll earn plenty good money doing something he's passionate about with a much lower risk of concussions. Is that crazy?

But somebody heard that someone wrote that he'd play football as long as he could and THEN play in the NFL. :unsure:
 
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#62
#62
Maybe I'm the only one, but does anyone else have a feeling he's not even really interested in the NFL? It's a totally believable notion for me that he skips the draft all together and goes straight to Whitney & Pratt or whatever, where his admitted real passion is. For whatever reason, I get the feeling (based on nothing concrete, of course) he's more interested in becoming an engineer, where he'll earn plenty good money doing something he's passionate about with a much lower risk of concussions. Is that crazy?

Totally agree with this. I honestly think Dobbs takes his academic career much more seriously than his football career. I highly doubt he will go to the NFL. I think like you, he will become an engineer.
 
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#63
#63
Thinking more about Dobbs and how he could significantly increase his passing numbers. As everybody seems to agree, if he can get better throwing the ball downfield, the go routes, the fade routes outside the hashes that typically result in 25+ yards, then he can make up some serious ground on the top statistical throwers.

He can attempt the same number of passes this year, 344, as he did last year and push his passing yards from 2291 to 3000 by increasing his yards per attempt by 2 yards, from a paltry 6.7 to a robust 8.7, which could very realistically be a result of him improving his deep passing. Sounds like a very tall order, but it can be done .....,. Brandon Allen of Arkansas increased his average yards per attempt by 2.6 yards from his junior to his senior season....so again, it can be done. Also, if he gets better completing those, connects on a lot of them early in the season, then it becomes a strength of the offense and then, surely to goodness, Butch and DeBord call a lot more of them, and everything snowballs in the right direction.

Additionally, Josh averaged only 1.15 TD passes per game las year....15 in 13 games. Bump that to 2 per game and all of a sudden, he's at 26 or 28, depending on if we play 13 or 14 games. Either of those numbers would've put him in the top 4 in the SEC and top 25 in the country last year. Add those passing numbers to what we suspect he'll do again on the ground this year, along with an 11 or 12-2 season for the Vols and Josh's stock as an NFL QB could rise very quickly.

Just some thoughts.

Looking at it in a similar vein, Dobbs threw for 191 yds per game in 2015. If you include all passers, it was 199 yds/game. The passing yds/game for six of the last seven national champs was in the range of 203-227 yds/game.

Not that far off. We are talking 20-30 yds more per game passing for a more balanced offense.

Preston Williams. More seam routes to Wolf and Croom. Smith and new speedy young talent at slot. Offensive line continuing to get better. We are going to be there in 2016.
 
#66
#66
Not sure if you have followed over the last few months, but the great talent evaluator that you are quoting doesnt have the first clue.

Can't remember where D4H has been truly wrong, but do remember a few people having to eat some crow for his sake. It's like my 10 - 2 prediction from last year; it didn't happen but it still should have happened and most fair-minded posters now agree. No one could have predicted the FG kicking strategies or the 2-point conversion chart or fourth down for Jancek.

Which brings me to Azzani and Mahoney.

The throw game overall has significant problems and most of it wasn't Dobbs. I wish one of our resident statisticians could check this. It felt like we threw the ball downfield about 5-times per game. Pass protection for the deep ball was a problem too. But my gut feeling is Josh hit 2 - 5 or better, but we simply didn't have a receiver who made the play.

I can think of at least a dozen big passes over several games that were bang on the money - or at least you would expect the receiver to make a play on - and the football hits the floor. I wonder what the stats look like if we hit 1.5 of those big passes per game.

I'm worried that Azzani is still considered part of the BSiA. I'm hopeful that the DeBordinator has lit a fire under his butt to teach the receivers to catch footballs and make plays towards the football. They've completed their Jedi blocking training.
 
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#67
#67
Thats got to be the dumbest mock draft I've ever seen. Love Jamal Adams but if Sean Taylor couldn't go top 3, no safety ever will. Adams is in the lower top 10 though.

Fournette at 8 is a joke. If Elliott went #4, Fournette will be top 5 next year.

Christian McCaffrey is also not going in the 1st round. Just because you're a heisman contender, doesn't make you a first rounder (as Derrick Henry found out). McCaffrey doesn't have the build of an every down back. He'll go 2nd round at best.

Jabrill Peppers in the first round is a joke as well. The kid is so overrated it's not even funny. He couldn't start in our secondary yet they have him in the first lol.

I could keep going. But thats a horrible mock draft.

Elliot was the best back in the draft. And Dallas felt good about him at 4.

Next year the lower 7 teams may not need a top back. Fournette is better than Elliot,
but still might not get drafted in the top 7 or even 10.

Jabril Peppers would most certainly start in our secondary. Which is saying a lot.
Or he would be the Star perhaps. Hes an incredible player. Im not sure why you think that of him. Hes a better player and prospect than Keanu Neal who went 1st round this year.
 
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#68
#68
Can't remember where D4H has been truly wrong, but do remember a few people having to eat some crow for his sake. It's like my 10 - 2 prediction from last year; it didn't happen but it still should have happened and most fair-minded posters now agree. No one could have predicted the FG kicking strategies or the 2-point conversion chart or fourth down for Jancek.

Which brings me to Azzani and Mahoney.

The throw game overall has significant problems and most of it wasn't Dobbs. I wish one of our resident statisticians could check this. It felt like we threw the ball downfield about 5-times per game. Pass protection for the deep ball was a problem too. But my gut feeling is Josh hit 2 - 5 or better, but we simply didn't have a receiver who made the play.

I can think of at least a dozen big passes over several games that were bang on the money - or at least you would expect the receiver to make a play on - and the football hits the floor. I wonder what the stats look like if we hit 1.5 of those big passes per game.

I'm worried that Azzani is still considered part of the BSiA. I'm hopeful that the DeBordinator has lit a fire under his butt to teach the receivers to catch footballs and make plays towards the football. They've completed their Jedi blocking training.

D4H was wrong when he guaranteed that North would go no later than the fourth round. That's off the top of my head.

If anyone else can recall another time, feel free to add.
 
#69
#69
My question is...do you think he will go to the NFL? He is really passionate about his engineering degree.
 
#70
#70
My question is...do you think he will go to the NFL? He is really passionate about his engineering degree.

Can he not go with a combination both NFL + Eng the next 7-10 years, then full-time Eng-only the next 20-30 yrs of his career?
 
#71
#71
Dobbs would be drafted even if we have a replay of last year. If we develop a downfield passing game (which I think happens with the emergence of Preston Williams) then we win the SEC championship, make the playoffs, and Dobbs goes high in the draft.

I wouldn't take your draft advice over a bum. Remember, Mr. 4th round or earlier for North.
 
#72
#72
Elliot was the best back in the draft. And Dallas felt good about him at 4.

Next year the lower 7 teams may not need a top back. Fournette is better than Elliot,
but still might not get drafted in the top 7 or even 10.

Jabril Peppers would most certainly start in our secondary. Which is saying a lot.
Or he would be the Star perhaps. Hes an incredible player. Im not sure why you think that of him. Hes a better player and prospect than Keanu Neal who went 1st round this year.

We'll just have to agree to disagree.

I think Peppers is an absolute scrub. Extremely overrated.

Him and Adoree Jackson are living off that 5 star ranking. Both get burned all the time in coverage.
 
#73
#73
D4H was wrong when he guaranteed that North would go no later than the fourth round. That's off the top of my head.

If anyone else can recall another time, feel free to add.

I hope you remember all my other predictions so you can call me out of them.

I've been quite bold so far.
 
#74
#74
:lolabove: Pages and pages of exquisite ignore messages!
 
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