Butch Jones... How much longer

[tenninohio]

Wow! Some people on this website are complete idiots! CBJ's is working with 23 freshman playing in the SEC! Why is that so hard for some of you to understand! Please for the love of God just try to atleast be quite cause that is your best shot at not showing your ignorance.

well, I think they should be "quiet" as well, not to show their ignorance....agree?

 

[daj2576]

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

Please allow me to retort.

Let me begin with this threshold question to you. How long should Miles, Malzahn and Sumlin be allowed to stay in their jobs? Before I answer this question with some data, let me make a few general observations about this year's team.

From year 1 to year 2, and only looking at Tennessee's yearly SEC competition (UGA, UF, Mizzou, KY, Bama and SCAR, but excluding Vanderbilt as the game has yet to be played), Team 118 has performed, on average, 13 points better by looking at margin of victory against each opponent than Team 117.

Against EVERY SEC team but Georgia, Tennessee has either lost by significantly less, or won by more than last year.

Against UGA, Tennessee lost by 3 in 2013 and 3 in 2014, so the change is 0 (although this could be argued as an improvement as UGA was at full health and the game was played in their house this year).

Against UF, Tennessee lost by 14 in 2013, and 1 in 2014, so that is a 13 point net improvement.

Against SCAR there is a 1 point improvement, Bama 21, Kentucky 21, and Missouri 20.

This is both an indication of a sharp incline in the ability of Team 118, but also an indication of the depth of the hole that Tennessee is trying to climb out of. It is interesting, to me, how much better UT is doing against all same competition from last year to this. There is no variance, against every team (even UGA arguably) there has been a marked improvement.

Next consider that while you are outing our current coach, or talking about his potential replacement, that roughly a whole class of students attended my beloved alma mater and didn't see the Vols do two things that are within reach this year, 1) win 3 SEC games, and 2) go to a bowl. Let that sink in. Barring a catastrophic meltdown, at which time I might actually be on board with this discussion, Tennessee will reach both of those goals for the first time since 2010.

Assuming UT beats Vandy, this will help you visualize where we have come from and where we are going.



While you are thinking about all of that, consider the real issues with depth, injury, and experience that were endured this year. This is a very young, but very talented team. Butch only has one real recruiting class under his belt, and is moving towards his second stellar class.

Returning to my threshold question about Miles, Sumlin, and Malzahn brings us to the following. Recruiting matters, immensely. About 70% of the time, one could predict the outcome of an SEC game by just averaging four years of rivals recruiting, and picking the team with that average closer to one. As such a strong correlation exists, this evaluation can be used to aid in determining how well a coach is doing in relation to his talent. This year, Jones has lost to two teams that UT has out-recruited: Mizzou and Ole Miss (in 2010 Dooley lost to 3). Both were ranked at the time Tennessee played them (only 2 of Dooley's 3 losses to lessor talented teams were ranked).

Do you know what other coaches have lost to two teams that they have out-recruited? Miles, Sumlin and Malzahn. Should Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, you can scratch Malzahn and add Mr. Nick Saban to the world of -2 underperformers for this season.



Finally, while I have addressed the issue of us losing to a lessor talented Missouri there is another interesting point to make. Talent doesn't tell the whole story (it is not 100% as I have said for awhile). Some coaches have a history of doing more with less. Pinkel, for instance, averages a little over a game a year more than his talent would predict. That is including his significant over-performances this year and last. There is a caveat to that discussion and it goes to stability. It is easier to maintain that it is to rebuild, so let me point this out.

After 3 years in the East, Missouri has a winning record against Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. All three of those programs have one thing in common: they have all had, or in the middle of, a coaching change since Missouri joined the SEC. Against the two SEC East coaches with tenure, Missouri has a losing record and a combined point deficit of 40 (UGA) and 23 (SCAR). On the other hand, against teams in coaching transitions, Missouri has a positive point difference of 63 (KY), 41 (UF), 39 (UT), and 29 (Vandy).

UT has had a chance to beat UGA both years under Jones, and to-date, is 2-0 against Spurrier. Spurrier is a coach with a relatively long history of doing more with less. One could say he is a good coach, if not great. Yet, you want to fire or replace the Tennessee coach who for only the second time in history has beaten a Spurrier led team in back-to-back years.



Sorry so long. And all the people say amen.

Go Vols!

 

[tenninohio]

Please allow me to retort.







Next consider that while you are outing our current coach, or talking about his potential replacement, that roughly a whole class of students attended my beloved alma mater and didn't see the Vols do two things that are within reach this year, 1) win 3 SEC games, and 2) go to a bowl. Let that sink in. Barring a catastrophic meltdown, at which time I might actually be on board with this discussion, Tennessee will reach both of those goals for the first time since 2010.



While you are thinking about all of that, consider the real issues with depth, injury, and experience that were endured this year. This is a very young, but very talented team. Butch only has one real recruiting class under his belt, and is moving towards his second stellar class.








Sorry so long. And all the people say amen.

Go Vols!

slow down, bucko; don't think anyone has outed CBJ; he is obviously your man.
if this is this year's thesis, WOW, you should get a really good grade.
Excellent points.

 

[vol5198]

smh

 

[jmkvols]

Thanks Mods for the ignore button.

 

[rickyyrs]

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

And you were probably one of those who were mad when Dooley left. lol:k:

 

[volinSmyrna]

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

Good gosh, do you feel better now? Why don't you enlighten us on who should be the next coach.

 

[PowerWookie]

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

Calm down and quit acting like a spoils child

 

[PowerWookie]

Please allow me to retort.

Let me begin with this threshold question to you. How long should Miles, Malzahn and Sumlin be allowed to stay in their jobs? Before I answer this question with some data, let me make a few general observations about this year's team.

From year 1 to year 2, and only looking at Tennessee's yearly SEC competition (UGA, UF, Mizzou, KY, Bama and SCAR, but excluding Vanderbilt as the game has yet to be played), Team 118 has performed, on average, 13 points better by looking at margin of victory against each opponent than Team 117.

Against EVERY SEC team but Georgia, Tennessee has either lost by significantly less, or won by more than last year.

Against UGA, Tennessee lost by 3 in 2013 and 3 in 2014, so the change is 0 (although this could be argued as an improvement as UGA was at full health and the game was played in their house this year).

Against UF, Tennessee lost by 14 in 2013, and 1 in 2014, so that is a 13 point net improvement.

Against SCAR there is a 1 point improvement, Bama 21, Kentucky 21, and Missouri 20.

This is both an indication of a sharp incline in the ability of Team 118, but also an indication of the depth of the hole that Tennessee is trying to climb out of. It is interesting, to me, how much better UT is doing against all same competition from last year to this. There is no variance, against every team (even UGA arguably) there has been a marked improvement.

Next consider that while you are outing our current coach, or talking about his potential replacement, that roughly a whole class of students attended my beloved alma mater and didn't see the Vols do two things that are within reach this year, 1) win 3 SEC games, and 2) go to a bowl. Let that sink in. Barring a catastrophic meltdown, at which time I might actually be on board with this discussion, Tennessee will reach both of those goals for the first time since 2010.

Assuming UT beats Vandy, this will help you visualize where we have come from and where we are going.

View attachment 86818

While you are thinking about all of that, consider the real issues with depth, injury, and experience that were endured this year. This is a very young, but very talented team. Butch only has one real recruiting class under his belt, and is moving towards his second stellar class.

Returning to my threshold question about Miles, Sumlin, and Malzahn brings us to the following. Recruiting matters, immensely. About 70% of the time, one could predict the outcome of an SEC game by just averaging four years of rivals recruiting, and picking the team with that average closer to one. As such a strong correlation exists, this evaluation can be used to aid in determining how well a coach is doing in relation to his talent. This year, Jones has lost to two teams that UT has out-recruited: Mizzou and Ole Miss (in 2010 Dooley lost to 3). Both were ranked at the time Tennessee played them (only 2 of Dooley's 3 losses to lessor talented teams were ranked).

Do you know what other coaches have lost to two teams that they have out-recruited? Miles, Sumlin and Malzahn. Should Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, you can scratch Malzahn and add Mr. Nick Saban to the world of -2 underperformers for this season.

View attachment 86816

Finally, while I have addressed the issue of us losing to a lessor talented Missouri there is another interesting point to make. Talent doesn't tell the whole story (it is not 100% as I have said for awhile). Some coaches have a history of doing more with less. Pinkel, for instance, averages a little over a game a year more than his talent would predict. That is including his significant over-performances this year and last. There is a caveat to that discussion and it goes to stability. It is easier to maintain that it is to rebuild, so let me point this out.

After 3 years in the East, Missouri has a winning record against Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. All three of those programs have one thing in common: they have all had, or in the middle of, a coaching change since Missouri joined the SEC. Against the two SEC East coaches with tenure, Missouri has a losing record and a combined point deficit of 40 (UGA) and 23 (SCAR). On the other hand, against teams in coaching transitions, Missouri has a positive point difference of 63 (KY), 41 (UF), 39 (UT), and 29 (Vandy).

UT has had a chance to beat UGA both years under Jones, and to-date, is 2-0 against Spurrier. Spurrier is a coach with a relatively long history of doing more with less. One could say he is a good coach, if not great. Yet, you want to fire or replace the Tennessee coach who for only the second time in history has beaten a Spurrier led team in back-to-back years.



Sorry so long. And all the people say amen.

Go Vols!

Amen

 

[garbear]

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

Not sure if you are serious or just drunk

 

[Orangeblood98']

You've got to be kidding me. I was afraid this would happen..

We beat two teams who are below par and almost, probably should've, lost to one (SCj) and all the sudden people think we can beat anyone. We got beat by the better team and Butch didn't coach his best game but certainly not his worst.

I'm still extremely excited for next year and beyond.

 

[Flipdaddy]

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

I'll make an assessment after year 3 and 4. Another coaching change and we might as well take a wrecking ball to Neyland Stadium. Butch recruits well. Butch has class and integrity. Butch has brought a little "swagger " back to the program and these players respect him and that is HUGE considering the last two a$$holes we've had here. Go Butch and Go Big Orange!

 

[BenGrimm]

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

I only clicked on this thread to see who the simpleton was that started it. Now I know.

 

[VolsRule]

butch is still dealing with the dooley disaster---he inherited little talent due to dooley's terrible recruiting. it will take 2-3 more years to build up the roster.

 

[UGA_Dawgs_fan]

Just an outside perspective. He is recruiting very well and I personally think he has them headed in the right direction. From what I've seen, I think he deserves another season. Like I said, if nothing else he's a great recruiter and UT has a great class coming in.

 

[TGVol]

So wouldn't 6-6 and a bowl game be considered improvement?

Only if you can accept the loss to Vandy last year. I can't - we should have been 6-6 last year if not for horrible coaching in that game. Therefore this year will be no improvement after we beat Vandy (which is is not even competitive this year - even by its own historical worst in SEC standards).

 

[daj2576]

Only if you can accept the loss to Vandy last year. I can't - we should have been 6-6 last year if not for horrible coaching in that game. Therefore this year will be no improvement after we beat Vandy (which is is not even competitive this year - even by its own historical worst in SEC standards).

So, beating a Vanderbilt team this year doesn't count because UT lost to Vanderbilt team last year? Ignore the fact that while aided by some great luck, that Vandy team won 9 or so games and beat UT, UF and UGA all in the same season.

If that is the case, pull up every piece of UT history and wipe away all of General Neyland's wins. He lost to a similarly exceptional Vanderbilt his first year as well. I doubt that he would ever give another win away, no matter how bad they became, because of it.

 

[volinSmyrna]

Only if you can accept the loss to Vandy last year. I can't - we should have been 6-6 last year if not for horrible coaching in that game. Therefore this year will be no improvement after we beat Vandy (which is is not even competitive this year - even by its own historical worst in SEC standards).

Well, I don't accept the loss to Georgia this year. So when we beat Vandy, we'll be magically 7-5!!!!! Woooo Hooo :dance2:

So there's your improvement!!!

 

[manndingo]

WOW, yer an absolute dumbass...go cheer for bammy.

​

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

 

[5FingerVolPunch]

Serious question. People will blast me as a negavol ect. But like it or not... Hes not going to return us to prominence. Hes a great recruiter but a terrible tactician. And he's just one of these guys that scared to death of life. Like the guy in the highway that slams on his brakes in the middle of an intersection when the light turns yellow. I've been in the fence about him but I'm not anymore. We've lost almost every winable game he's coached in while here. The two he won (sc) both took miraculous comebacks that never should have been required. We were firmly in control of both games in the second half before getting conservative and trying to run out the clock. Last night we saw an example of a great coach. They got the ball off a to late in the game while leading and put their foot on our throats and won.

So two questions...Who's next and how much longer before we can afford to part with Butch? Serious questions so please don't merge...

I bet you're one of those people that can be surrounded by rainbows and be searching for that one dark cloud so you can complain about it. I bet you're a miserable person. We replaced both lines, we're playing with more true freshman than any team in the country, and we have had one of the toughest schedules. Even with all that adversity, our young Vols played with pride and fight and we're going to go bowling for the first time since 2010 because of it. Imagine what these boys will do in the next couple of years with experience and depth! I'm excited about our future! If you can't see that good times are ahead then I say you're blind and you just feel better about yourself when you're complaining about something.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

206 posts in this thread and 148 of them are posters with nothing to input in the discussion except to make fun of the OP. They can't defend his argument, they can just call him stupid. Brilliant.

Congrats to you for bringing so much to the table. Brilliant post. Why would we defend such a stupid argument? What's to actually defend?

 

[mscox75]

Perfect analogy

Sometimes he slams the brakes on because he doesn't know the new car he just took over can get him through in time without slipping the transmission, or accidentally going to 5th gear before 4th and slowing him down. And this would cause a catastrophic accident. Confidence in coaching comes with veteran play. Maty Mauk is that....Dobbs is not.....YET. Jones is a gutsy guy and it will show as he rebuilds his custom car.

 

[tenninohio]

Sometimes he slams the brakes on because he doesn't know the new car he just took over can get him through in time without slipping the transmission, or accidentally going to 5th gear before 4th and slowing him down. And this would cause a catastrophic accident. Confidence in coaching comes with veteran play. Maty Mauk is that....Dobbs is not.....YET. Jones is a gutsy guy and it will show as he rebuilds his custom car.

Butch strikes me as a scooter kind of guy.

 

[BeecherVol]

I don't think you fall into that category though Beech......I can't recall ever reading a ridiculous post of yours.

You got some that want the coach fired anytime they lose a game, and then you got some that like the coach and defend criticism even when its warranted.

Im somewhere in the middle. This staff has upgraded the talent on the field without a doubt but to say I feel confident that they can coach against the best in this league wouldnt be accurate at this point. He ll field the most talent next year that we have in a while, we ll see what he does with it.

 

[lightnin']

Please.

Missouri was much better prepared to win the game than was Tennessee.
Many of us (myself included) have trouble accepting Missouri as a legitimate
SEC "player"-yet, they're positioned to return to Atlanta in a few weeks.

Losses like this one again show how badly this program was ran under the
Hamilton/Kiffin/Dooley regimes from '08-'12 and how patient the fan base
will have to be.

It ain't about Jones' "play calling" at this point, it's STILL about the bad calls made by the "suits" who drug the program to historic depths.