DiderotsGhost
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The end of this season has been a huge disappointment and I'm as unhappy as everyone else, but I'm still the "let's not overreact" camp with Butch.
There have been too many great college coaches that were "nearly fired" who ended up doing great things. The most recent one is Dabo Swinney at Clemson who was on a scolding hot seat after the 2010 season when the team finished 6-7 and even after the 2011 season when the team went 10-4 and suffered what was probably the most embarrassing BCS bowl thrashing in history. Since his "near firing", Dabo has run off a string of 6 consecutive 10-win seasons, with a 14-1 season last year and another potential playoff appearance this year. Not too shabby.
Butch has done enough to stick around IMO. No one is happy right now, but Butch is still the best option for the time being, just with significant changes.
The Case for Butch
Quality Wins. We have two embarrassing losses, but we also have 3 quality wins this season versus Virginia Tech (which was much better than expected), Florida (also pretty good), and Georgia. This season was not a total failure, by any stretch of the imagination. Things really only got ugly after a rash of injuries on the defense.
The Quick Turnaround. Whatever you say about Butch, he's pulled off a very rapid turnaround for this program. When he inherited the team in 2013, it was in the worst shape it had been since Johnny Majors took over in 1977. He turned things around by the end of Year 3. That counts for something.
Loaded Roster. Even losing Josh Dobbs, Cam Sutton, JRM, and Derek Barnett next season, we still have an absolutely loaded roster. We have one of the most highly recruited QBs in the nation from the 2016 class (something we haven't had since the Fulmer years). We also have loads of talent on defense. This team can contend for an SEC Championship for the next 3 seasons.
11-1 /10-2. The rash of injuries on defense undoubtedly hurt us big-time this season. Without all those injuries, I think we're looking at an 11-1 or 10-2 season with another huge quality win over Texas A&M added to the resume. It's really difficult to say whether or not Butch is simply a victim of "bad luck" right now given the injuries.
Defense Was Excellent Early. Before all the injuries hamstrung us, our "D" looked incredibly promising. Our defense was world-beaters versus Virginia Tech when we were near full-strength. I'm not sure that any SEC program, save for possibly Alabama, could've endured this many defensive injuries (particularly on the D-line and the LB corps) and not lost a few games as a result. Given the injuries, I also think Bob Shoop deserves a bit of a mulligan this year. We've got to keep him around another year to see if things can improve if we're healthier.
Versus Johnny Majors. Butch doesn't look too bad compared to Johnny Majors. Butch took over the program in 2012 in similar shape as Johnny took over in 1977. It really took ole' Johnny about 7 years to get us consistently competitive in the SEC. After going 7-5 and making a bowl game during his third season, Johnny struggled in his 4th season, finishing 5-6. Majors' first 9-win season came in Year 7 and the huge 1985 season, where we finished in the top 5 with a Sugar Bowl victory, didn't happen till Year 9. There's something to be said for consistency and Johnny delivered even if it took him some time. Also like Johnny, Butch has been a long-term program builder.
13 Disappointed SEC Fanbases. We're not alone ... there are 13 SEC schools with disappointed fanbases right now that want to fire their head coaches. There's only 1 school with a happy fanbase (Alabama). Alabama dominated the SEC this season and no one else looked better than average. Consider that at 8-4, we still have the 3rd best record in the SEC.
The Final Argument. Look, Butch has done an incredible job rebuilding this program. He's delivered top 10 classes and he's even "hit" on an very large number of 3-star recruits, which tells me he's one of the best talent evaluators in the game. We have incredible young talent on the roster, including one of the most highly recruited QBs from the 2016 class. Butch tends to get the most out of his players. He's had two bad games and both can be blamed, to a significant degree, on an overwhelming number of defensive injuries. He deserves at least another year or two to right the ship. Ultimately, though, I think he needs to take a deep look at his staff and consider making some changes in the offseason. It's not going to be easy, but we have the foundation of a championship team and Butch built that. I want to see him succeed more than anything in the world and think he deserves a minimum of one more year. If he fails again, then it's time to think about moving on.
Changes
Bring in QB Coach. Still seems crazy we don't have a full-time QB Coach with one of the best pool of QBs in the nation.
Replace DeBord! I'm not totally negative on DeBord, but I don't think he's a championship caliber OC. He has a ceiling. He seems to struggle when he's caught by surprise by the defense. He's unable to adjust. I just don't know that we can win an SEC Championship that way. We need a more dynamic OC.
Mark Helfrich? I would kind of like to see Butch go after someone like Mark Helfrich. Helfrich is currently the Head Coach of Oregon, but seems very likely he will be fired shortly. Helfrich would also be an absolutely perfect fit for our offensive scheme. The only problem, as I see it, is that Helfrich has been a lifelong West Coast guy.
Eli Drinkwitz? Another good name for OC. He's only been at his current job for one year (NC State), so might not be willing to come to UT. That said, he has an excellent pedigree. Worked under Gus Malzahn at Auburn back in 2010 and 11. Followed Gus to Arkansas State. Stayed on at Arkansas State under Brian Harsin and became OC. Followed Harsin to Boise State; started as TE coach then became OC in 2015. Then became OC at NC State this year. Would be a good fit for offensive philosophy.
Issues With Firing
There's a Lot of Competition. There will likely be an opening at Oregon and a strong chance of an opening at Notre Dame. Likely see a few more jobs coming open, as well. The best "up-and-coming" coach has already been nabbed by Texas.
Bad Precedent. I feel like it's bad precedent to fire a coach that completely turned around our program merely because he had two bad games. We need to see a clear trend that the program is moving downwards or "stuck in neutral."
What if We Did Fire Butch? We'd almost certainly be unprepared for a new coaching search and we'd be very unlikely to get a better coach.
Mike McIntyre? While I'm opposed to firing Butch, if we did, there's only two real "good" options as I see it. We could try (probably unsuccessfully) to get Mike McIntyre away from Colorado. McIntyre is from the South originally. He graduated from Georgia Tech, spent some time as a coach in the SEC, and was a DC under David Cutcliffe at Duke. He's been very successful at two stops now (San Jose State and Colorado) and could have success in Knoxville. But my question is, why does he leave Colorado now that he's a hero there and has built the program up? The only things we can really offer him are (a) more money and resources, (b) the lure of competing against Nick Saban, and (c) a return to the Southeast. Is that really enough?
Tee Martin. The other option, as I see it, would be to go after Tee Martin. Tee has turned us down for assistant openings, but he'd have a more difficult time turning down a head coaching gig. We'd be getting a UT alum who is also an excellent coach. The downside is that he's never been a head coach before and might have difficulty succeeding at some at a place like UT in his first HC job.
David Cutcliffe. Not happening. We missed the boat on Cutcliffe. He's 62 years old now. Do we really want to hire a coach who is that close to retirement?
Dan Mullen? Maybe you could throw the farm at Dan Mullen, who's likely felling underappreciated at Miss State and could probably be much more successful in Knoxville. However, Mullen already makes $4 mil in Starkville, so we'd probably have to pay upwards of $5.5 mil to nab him.
Other Realistic Possibilities? Can anyone name a possibility other than the ones I've mentioned that would actually be good? There really aren't a lot of great options out there. I also think the job would be a more difficult sell if we fired Butch now. So while the "FIRE BUTCH!" crowd may be unhappy, if they got their way, we'd likely end up with another Dooley.
There have been too many great college coaches that were "nearly fired" who ended up doing great things. The most recent one is Dabo Swinney at Clemson who was on a scolding hot seat after the 2010 season when the team finished 6-7 and even after the 2011 season when the team went 10-4 and suffered what was probably the most embarrassing BCS bowl thrashing in history. Since his "near firing", Dabo has run off a string of 6 consecutive 10-win seasons, with a 14-1 season last year and another potential playoff appearance this year. Not too shabby.
Butch has done enough to stick around IMO. No one is happy right now, but Butch is still the best option for the time being, just with significant changes.
The Case for Butch
Quality Wins. We have two embarrassing losses, but we also have 3 quality wins this season versus Virginia Tech (which was much better than expected), Florida (also pretty good), and Georgia. This season was not a total failure, by any stretch of the imagination. Things really only got ugly after a rash of injuries on the defense.
The Quick Turnaround. Whatever you say about Butch, he's pulled off a very rapid turnaround for this program. When he inherited the team in 2013, it was in the worst shape it had been since Johnny Majors took over in 1977. He turned things around by the end of Year 3. That counts for something.
Loaded Roster. Even losing Josh Dobbs, Cam Sutton, JRM, and Derek Barnett next season, we still have an absolutely loaded roster. We have one of the most highly recruited QBs in the nation from the 2016 class (something we haven't had since the Fulmer years). We also have loads of talent on defense. This team can contend for an SEC Championship for the next 3 seasons.
11-1 /10-2. The rash of injuries on defense undoubtedly hurt us big-time this season. Without all those injuries, I think we're looking at an 11-1 or 10-2 season with another huge quality win over Texas A&M added to the resume. It's really difficult to say whether or not Butch is simply a victim of "bad luck" right now given the injuries.
Defense Was Excellent Early. Before all the injuries hamstrung us, our "D" looked incredibly promising. Our defense was world-beaters versus Virginia Tech when we were near full-strength. I'm not sure that any SEC program, save for possibly Alabama, could've endured this many defensive injuries (particularly on the D-line and the LB corps) and not lost a few games as a result. Given the injuries, I also think Bob Shoop deserves a bit of a mulligan this year. We've got to keep him around another year to see if things can improve if we're healthier.
Versus Johnny Majors. Butch doesn't look too bad compared to Johnny Majors. Butch took over the program in 2012 in similar shape as Johnny took over in 1977. It really took ole' Johnny about 7 years to get us consistently competitive in the SEC. After going 7-5 and making a bowl game during his third season, Johnny struggled in his 4th season, finishing 5-6. Majors' first 9-win season came in Year 7 and the huge 1985 season, where we finished in the top 5 with a Sugar Bowl victory, didn't happen till Year 9. There's something to be said for consistency and Johnny delivered even if it took him some time. Also like Johnny, Butch has been a long-term program builder.
13 Disappointed SEC Fanbases. We're not alone ... there are 13 SEC schools with disappointed fanbases right now that want to fire their head coaches. There's only 1 school with a happy fanbase (Alabama). Alabama dominated the SEC this season and no one else looked better than average. Consider that at 8-4, we still have the 3rd best record in the SEC.
The Final Argument. Look, Butch has done an incredible job rebuilding this program. He's delivered top 10 classes and he's even "hit" on an very large number of 3-star recruits, which tells me he's one of the best talent evaluators in the game. We have incredible young talent on the roster, including one of the most highly recruited QBs from the 2016 class. Butch tends to get the most out of his players. He's had two bad games and both can be blamed, to a significant degree, on an overwhelming number of defensive injuries. He deserves at least another year or two to right the ship. Ultimately, though, I think he needs to take a deep look at his staff and consider making some changes in the offseason. It's not going to be easy, but we have the foundation of a championship team and Butch built that. I want to see him succeed more than anything in the world and think he deserves a minimum of one more year. If he fails again, then it's time to think about moving on.
Changes
Bring in QB Coach. Still seems crazy we don't have a full-time QB Coach with one of the best pool of QBs in the nation.
Replace DeBord! I'm not totally negative on DeBord, but I don't think he's a championship caliber OC. He has a ceiling. He seems to struggle when he's caught by surprise by the defense. He's unable to adjust. I just don't know that we can win an SEC Championship that way. We need a more dynamic OC.
Mark Helfrich? I would kind of like to see Butch go after someone like Mark Helfrich. Helfrich is currently the Head Coach of Oregon, but seems very likely he will be fired shortly. Helfrich would also be an absolutely perfect fit for our offensive scheme. The only problem, as I see it, is that Helfrich has been a lifelong West Coast guy.
Eli Drinkwitz? Another good name for OC. He's only been at his current job for one year (NC State), so might not be willing to come to UT. That said, he has an excellent pedigree. Worked under Gus Malzahn at Auburn back in 2010 and 11. Followed Gus to Arkansas State. Stayed on at Arkansas State under Brian Harsin and became OC. Followed Harsin to Boise State; started as TE coach then became OC in 2015. Then became OC at NC State this year. Would be a good fit for offensive philosophy.
Issues With Firing
There's a Lot of Competition. There will likely be an opening at Oregon and a strong chance of an opening at Notre Dame. Likely see a few more jobs coming open, as well. The best "up-and-coming" coach has already been nabbed by Texas.
Bad Precedent. I feel like it's bad precedent to fire a coach that completely turned around our program merely because he had two bad games. We need to see a clear trend that the program is moving downwards or "stuck in neutral."
What if We Did Fire Butch? We'd almost certainly be unprepared for a new coaching search and we'd be very unlikely to get a better coach.
Mike McIntyre? While I'm opposed to firing Butch, if we did, there's only two real "good" options as I see it. We could try (probably unsuccessfully) to get Mike McIntyre away from Colorado. McIntyre is from the South originally. He graduated from Georgia Tech, spent some time as a coach in the SEC, and was a DC under David Cutcliffe at Duke. He's been very successful at two stops now (San Jose State and Colorado) and could have success in Knoxville. But my question is, why does he leave Colorado now that he's a hero there and has built the program up? The only things we can really offer him are (a) more money and resources, (b) the lure of competing against Nick Saban, and (c) a return to the Southeast. Is that really enough?
Tee Martin. The other option, as I see it, would be to go after Tee Martin. Tee has turned us down for assistant openings, but he'd have a more difficult time turning down a head coaching gig. We'd be getting a UT alum who is also an excellent coach. The downside is that he's never been a head coach before and might have difficulty succeeding at some at a place like UT in his first HC job.
David Cutcliffe. Not happening. We missed the boat on Cutcliffe. He's 62 years old now. Do we really want to hire a coach who is that close to retirement?
Dan Mullen? Maybe you could throw the farm at Dan Mullen, who's likely felling underappreciated at Miss State and could probably be much more successful in Knoxville. However, Mullen already makes $4 mil in Starkville, so we'd probably have to pay upwards of $5.5 mil to nab him.
Other Realistic Possibilities? Can anyone name a possibility other than the ones I've mentioned that would actually be good? There really aren't a lot of great options out there. I also think the job would be a more difficult sell if we fired Butch now. So while the "FIRE BUTCH!" crowd may be unhappy, if they got their way, we'd likely end up with another Dooley.
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