Butch by the numbers

#1
LostVol55

LostVol55

Butch smash!!!!!
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#1
In trying to figure out why we looked so poorly against the first 3 opponents this year and turned it around offensively against Florida, I came up with a theory that Butch just has difficulty gameplanning for a coach that he hasn't faced before and then figures it out on the 2nd go around. Then I looked back at the his time at UT to see if that theory holds up. Here's what I found:

17 losses as the HC at UT (11 were against coaches he was facing for the first time). Yes, he's going to face a lot of coaches for the first time being the HC in a new conference.

That's not all, of the games he's lost and then returned to face that coach again the next year, he has improved the spread every time.

Florida (Muschamp) 1st year, 14 point loss - 2nd year, 1 point loss
Florida (McElwain) 1st year, 1 point loss - 2nd year, 10 pt win
Georgia (Richt) 1st, 3 pt loss - 2nd, 3 pt loss - 3rd, 7 pt win
Alabama (Saban) 1st, 35 pt loss - 2nd, 14 pt loss - 3rd 5 pt loss
Missouri (Pinkel) 1st, 28 pt loss - 2nd, 8 pt loss - 3rd, 11 pt win
Oklahoma (Stoops) 1st, 24 pt loss - 2nd, 7 pt loss

I've got a little more belief in my theory after his win against Florida (didn't have any in it during the first half).

So what does this tell me? We may struggle with Georgia, but he has faced a Kirby Smart defense a few times already so that's a good thing. I do think we're going to have a better showing against Alabama than we do at Texas A&M, due to the obvious factors of one being a road game and the other at home, as well as my little theory.

So in conclusion, I have a little more faith in Butch based on the above stats, but I will still yell at the TV when I don't agree with his decisions. Also, GBO :rock:
 
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#2
#2
Our team has also gotten more depth/talent in that time period as well. Correlation != Causation in all cases
 
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#3
#3
We are getting better/older/experienced/talented each year.

Game planning has never been an issue for Butch and his staff. Overall talent level has been the issue. That's why we get better each year.
 
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#4
#4
Very simple, pure vanilla play calling the first 3 games to not show Florida anything. How many of the plays that worked or we scored on against Florida did you see run in the first 3 games? Im going to say 0.
 
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#5
#5
The struggles early this year against the first three opponents I think were largely due to the players circling Sept 24 on the calendar and that being their focus. Anyone not called Gators just didn't get their attention until they were in danger of losing the game. Being the proverbial dog that has now caught the car let's hope they can focus on each upcoming opponent and play like they are capable.
 
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#6
#6
emzeeee said:
Our team has also gotten more depth/talent in that time period as well. Correlation != Causation in all cases
Click to expand...

After the first year, as you have said, the team is more talented and has depth. This year they are loaded, so they should improve with each year. Butches first 2 years here he was so depleted with talent and depth that Tennessee was vandy.
 
#8
#8
LostVol55 said:
In trying to figure out why we looked so poorly against the first 3 opponents this year and turned it around offensively against Florida, I came up with a theory that Butch just has difficulty gameplanning for a coach that he hasn't faced before and then figures it out on the 2nd go around. Then I looked back at the his time at UT to see if that theory holds up. Here's what I found:

17 losses as the HC at UT (11 were against coaches he was facing for the first time). Yes, he's going to face a lot of coaches for the first time being the HC in a new conference.

That's not all, of the games he's lost and then returned to face that coach again the next year, he has improved the spread every time.

Florida (Muschamp) 1st year, 14 point loss - 2nd year, 1 point loss
Florida (McElwain) 1st year, 1 point loss - 2nd year, 10 pt win
Georgia (Richt) 1st, 3 pt loss - 2nd, 3 pt loss - 3rd, 7 pt win
Alabama (Saban) 1st, 35 pt loss - 2nd, 14 pt loss - 3rd 5 pt loss
Missouri (Pinkel) 1st, 28 pt loss - 2nd, 8 pt loss - 3rd, 11 pt win
Oklahoma (Stoops) 1st, 24 pt loss - 2nd, 7 pt loss

I've got a little more belief in my theory after his win against Florida (didn't have any in it during the first half).

So what does this tell me? We may struggle with Georgia, but he has faced a Kirby Smart defense a few times already so that's a good thing. I do think we're going to have a better showing against Alabama than we do at Texas A&M, due to the obvious factors of one being a road game and the other at home, as well as my little theory.

So in conclusion, I have a little more faith in Butch based on the above stats, but I will still yell at the TV when I don't agree with his decisions. Also, GBO :rock:
Click to expand...


Or you could say the level of talent has drastically risen each year resulting in better teams to compete. Even if this is the case, kudos to CBJ for bringing in the talent!
 
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#9
#9
I also think there is a "coaches learning curve" for most new coaches in the SEC - whether it be HC, OC, DC, etc.
 
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#10
#10
Trying to go out and win on athleticism alone. That is what you saw for the first 3 games....if Josh Dobbs runs the ball more than 15 times a game....it will be ugly for any opponent. It completely opens up the passing game and running game for the other backs.

BTW....IF OUR WR'S CATCH A FEW PASSES IN THE FIRST HALF AND NOT DROP THEM....WE PUT OVER 50 UP ON THE GATORS.
 
#11
#11
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Very simple, pure vanilla play calling the first 3 games to not show Florida anything. How many of the plays that worked or we scored on against Florida did you see run in the first 3 games? Im going to say 0.
Click to expand...

Im going to back up and say I know of one. The screen to Kamara to dobbs right side we have run a few times without success.
But in the overall picture it was being run to set up Hurds wheel route on the TD against Florida.
That side of the defense bit hard on that play from watching film from the first 3 games.
 
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#14
#14
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Im going to back up and say I know of one. The screen to Kamara to dobbs right side we have run a few times without success.
But in the overall picture it was being run to set up Hurds wheel route on the TD against Florida.
That side of the defense bit hard on that play from watching film from the first 3 games.
Click to expand...

The way some plays are so wide open and work so well, it's pretty clear that much of what we do is a setup for the big plays.
 
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#15
#15
Iam4utalways said:
The way some plays are so wide open and work so well, it's pretty clear that much of what we do is a setup for the big plays.
Click to expand...

I would like to know from someone on the staff if that Hurd wheel route for the TD was an RPO and Dobbs made an outstanding read or if it was pass all the way. Either way it was an outstanding play call and execution Dobbs sold it well.
 
#16
#16
1974Vol said:
The struggles early this year against the first three opponents I think were largely due to the players circling Sept 24 on the calendar and that being their focus. Anyone not called Gators just didn't get their attention until they were in danger of losing the game. Being the proverbial dog that has now caught the car let's hope they can focus on each upcoming opponent and play like they are capable.
Click to expand...

Or maybe they were strategically circled ONLY the 2nd Half of 9/24.

We will never likely know, until the day Mr. Dobbs publishes his memoirs / biography.
 
#17
#17
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Very simple, pure vanilla play calling the first 3 games to not show Florida anything. How many of the plays that worked or we scored on against Florida did you see run in the first 3 games? Im going to say 0.
Click to expand...

1 Dobbs up the middle on the last TD.
 
#19
#19
emzeeee said:
Our team has also gotten more depth/talent in that time period as well. Correlation != Causation in all cases
Click to expand...

I get that and understand that's a factor, no doubt about it. But you also look at the offensive talent Dooley had and the inconsistent results from game to game and see how subpar coaching can negate a lot of talent.
 
#20
#20
The last two years, with more depth, we have also improved as a football team as the season progresses.

That is a huge development.

By the end of the Fulmer era, and under Kiffin and Dooley, we did not play good football after Halloween.

Consider:

2007

Beat Vandy 25-24
Beat UK 52-50 in 4 OTs

2008

Lost to So. Carolina and Wyoming in November

2009

Crushed by Ole Miss and another OT win at UK
Awful in the Bowl Game against VT too

2010

Looked pretty good this year, uninspired but comfortable wins against Vandy/UK - should have won bowl game

2011

Crushed at Arkansas, beat Vandy in OT, and lost to UK

2012

Worst football I have ever seen. Rebounded to beat UK after Dooley was fired.

2013

A very difficult November. Mizzou was at their peak, and we had to play Auburn. Lost to Vandy again. This team peaked against Georgia and Carolina. Once Worley went down, they fell short by losing to Vandy. In retrospect, they were never going to beat Auburn or Mizzou.

2014

Close loss to a strong Mizzou team, but we handled business otherwise.

2015

Back to the undefeated November's we expect at Tennessee.

2016

We will beat all of our post-Bama opponents and be at least 10 point favorites in every game. The challenge will be to maintain focus and improve as a team. We have not had this challenge since 2007, and we failed it then.
 
#21
#21
Or it could simply be the by product of a successful rebuild.

Here is a number on CBJ plus 8. Many on this board have expressed that Majors rebuild was equal to this one on talent when it started. At this point in season 4 CBJ has a record of plus 8 wins over losses. It took Majors into season 7 to reach this wins over losses ratio.
 
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#22
#22
Old Man Orange said:
Or it could simply be the by product of a successful rebuild.

Here is a number on CBJ plus 8. Many on this board have expressed that Majors rebuild was equal to this one on talent when it started. At this point in season 4 CBJ has a record of plus 8 wins over losses. It took Majors into season 7 to reach this wins over losses ratio.
Click to expand...

Which makes what Jones is doing even more impressive since I think it's a lot harder to rebuild now than it was in the late 70s & early 80s.
 
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#23
#23
This thread is why true science should always be open to peer cross review. Nice hypothesis. Difficult to stand up under scrutiny IMO.
 
#24
#24
I don't know about this theory. In year one CBJ beat Spurrier who he had never coached against but lost to Franklin who he had previously beaten while at Cinci.

As others have said, he upgraded the talent, depth, and experience each year. Most importantly he got guys who buy into his coaching philosophy. I'm sure that plays a big part in these double digit comebacks. Not just this year but vs UGA last year and even USCe in 2014.
 
#25
#25
Good luck with that...might as well talk about "chicken or the egg"...this could be a long thread...:rofl:

I'm just enjoying it...:wassup:

GO VOLS!
 
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