Butch By the Numbers.

[NashVol11]

I originally posted this in a thread but I think it makes more sense on its own.

Here's pretty much how I evaluate a coach (in no particular order):
1. Record before he got there vs. record with him
2. Conference record
3. Conference titles
4. Record in rivalry games
Winning big games you shouldn't is another one, but I have no idea which games Central Michigan should and should not win.

For Jones at Central Michigan:
1. 10-4 pre-Jones, 11-2 when he left.
2. 20-3 vs. the MAC.
3. 2 outright conference titles
4. 3-0 against Western Michigan

My take: Kelly did go before him, but he still looks great at this point. You could say that Kelly left the program before he peaked there, but Jones took them to heights (11-2, 8-0 in the MAC) Kelly never reached.

At Cincinnati:
1. 12-1 Sugar Bowl team pre-Jones, 9-3 now.
2. 12-9 in the Big East.
3. 2 shared conference titles
4. 2-1 against Louisville

My take: This is a lot more underwhelming. People just kind of accept that Jones has "2 titles," but both of them were three- or four-way tie kind of deals. Never was his team actually the one invited to a BCS bowl as Big East champion. He only beat one team with a record better than 7-5, and it was Miami (OH) - not really seeing any surprise victories out of Jones.

Overall, 12-9 in the Big East sticks out to me as Jones now moves to the SEC. It seems like that's where he kind of leveled out, and where he belongs. Those looking for positive signs can certainly play up the CMU record, because it is impressive, but given his lack of signature wins I have a really hard time seeing him beat the likes of Saban/Miles/Spurrier/Sumlin/Richt/Muschamp. And that's exactly what we need to do.

 

[Unimane]

Excellent analysis, devoid of the hope factor. People can hope and want him to do well, but, in the end, it's all about results. Can he do it or can't he? The numbers don't look promising.

 

[mreed90]

Still only one losing season and if you take that out of his record because of the injuries Cincy had his record there is much better. With like talent his teams do well that's pretty much a given. Saying he "belongs" at the level is yet to be seen.

 

[bo7712]

Don't know what the future holds but,

Nick Saban before LSU
HC record 41-28-1 0-3 in bowls
1 co conference championships at Toledo

Butch Jones before UT
HC record 50-27 1-2 in Bowls
2 conference championships in MAC at Crntral Michigan
2 co-conference championships in Big East

Lets see what he can do.

By the way Nick Saban was 8-4 in first year at LSU

 

[bo7712]

Dooley in six years is 32-41 doesn't even compare.

1st 6 years HC winning %

Nick Saban 59%
Derek Dooley 43%
Butch Jones 64%

 

[NashVol11]

Dooley in six years is 32-41 doesn't even compare.

1st 6 years HC winning %

Nick Saban 59%
Derek Dooley 43%
Butch Jones 64%

Hire Larry Coker!!

I guess I should give up on the idea that people here can look any deeper than overall win %.

 

[ukvols]

Excellent analysis by the OP.
This hire can be spun either positively or negatively very easily.
A lot of people are going to begin to focus on the positives, because that's what fans do. Based on the data in this thread, the OP's conclusion that CBJ belongs in the Big East seems correct. On the plus side though, is that CBJ's classes at UC were ranked higher than Kelly's classes, per Rivals.

 

[gasguy98]

Dooley in six years is 32-41 doesn't even compare.

1st 6 years HC winning %

Nick Saban 59%
Derek Dooley 43%
Butch Jones 64%

Numbers matter. Personnel matters.
Most importantly, recruiting matters. If he win off the field he will be able to win on the field as his % suggest.

Let's get behind this guy until he gives us a reason not to. :clapping:

 

[PPPpartsp3]

This is why I laugh at these "championships", and he is a winner crap:

This is winning conference co-championships in the Big East:

Sagarin Ratings
2011
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30
30 Cincinnati 10 3 68.43( 73) 0 0 | 0 1

2012
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30
45 Cincinnati 63.85( 99) 0 0 | 0 0

 

[T_man_J]

...Overall, 12-9 in the Big East sticks out to me as Jones now moves to the SEC. It seems like that's where he kind of leveled out, and where he belongs. Those looking for positive signs can certainly play up the CMU record, because it is impressive, but given his lack of signature wins I have a really hard time seeing him beat the likes of Saban/Miles/Spurrier/Sumlin/Richt/Muschamp. And that's exactly what we need to do.

Butch's success in the SEC will come down to the quality of coaches that he hires. All of his experience gained in the Big East (and his previous staff's experience) can be neutralized (or blown up) by the raw talent in the SEC. Let's face it... if his previous staff was that good, they would already be coaching in the SEC.

In the SEC, it all comes down to AIR:

• Adaptability
• Innovation
• Recruiting

So, I will hold by breath until I get some AIR.

 

[utvolkyle06]

Dooley in six years is 32-41 doesn't even compare.

1st 6 years HC winning %

Nick Saban 59%
Derek Dooley 43%
Butch Jones 64%

Yep now add Fulmers numbers to the comparison,,,,,,,interesting.

 

[VolFanNC09]

Take out his first year at Cincy where he was replacing a ton of talent and his record looks better. 8-4 in Big East.

The interesting side to me is once he got his plan in place did his teams improve and did they play for championships?

I am not sold on him by any means, but he does have a better track record than our last two hires. Basically he and Gundey and Strong all had their strengths and weaknesses.

 

[Brianchevy]

I have 2 degrees from UT, i love my university, but I want to bring up the subject that very few others are discussing. The CBJ offensive philosophy in the SEC, will it work?

I understand the multiple lists of coaching candidates, i understand trying to get a "named" guy -- but what I don't understand is spending 4 years building athletes to compete on the Line of Scrimmage in the SEC, and then immediately switching to a CBJ style overnight just because he was best available. Hart didn't hire a search firm, he should have -- he didn't look at the impact of the new philosophy on current roster and what we are built to do.

Switching horses in the middle of a stream with no search firm, no help. Sheesh.. I have to say, Hart is in over his head. It will take us 3 years to 'reload' to have his roster.

I am a season ticket holder, and I am very worried that this sets us back. I felt Dooley made a many on field mistakes, but recruited well and this roster is not that far off from USC, Georgia (nowhere near Bama).

Brian

 

[NashVol11]

I felt Dooley made a many on field mistakes, but recruited well and this roster is not that far off from USC, Georgia (nowhere near Bama).

Dooley wasn't that great a recruiter. But I don't have much hope for Jones, either, based on the coaches he's going up against. The SEC is loaded right now.

 

[patrick]

Excellent analysis, devoid of the hope factor. People can hope and want him to do well, but, in the end, it's all about results. Can he do it or can't he? The numbers don't look promising.

I will probably get lit up for this but I think that we have gotten another Dooley. Overpaying for an underwhelming coach.

 

[TNGrad2012]

Indeed, you can make any number of arguments supporting your claim, VKAman, but every coach has to start somewhere and has to crawl before he sprouts wings and flies. Let's look at some historically great coaches who had little success before they wound up at their destination where they gained their greatest fame:

Ara Parseghian: 36-35-1 at Northwestern; 95-17-4 at Notre Dame*

Darrell Royal: 12-8 at Mississippi State; 5-5 at Washington; 167-47-5 at Texas*

Bear Bryant: 6-2-1 at Maryland; 60-23-5 at Kentucky; 25-14-2 at Texas A&M; 232-46-9 at Alabama* (Granted, he coached teams to a .710 winning percentage or better at every place other than Texas A&M, but he was nowhere near as success at the other schools as he was when he got to Alabama.)

Bobby Bowden: 42-26 at West Virginia; 315-98-4 at Florida State*

Woody Hayes: 19–6 at Denison; 14–5 at Miami (OH); 205–61–10 at Ohio State*

Bo Schembechler: 40-17-3 at Miami (OH); 194-48-5 at Michigan*

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Not every great coach had glamorous statistics before they coached at the school they are most famous at. I'm not saying that Butch Jones is going to be one of these coaches, but I think people need to quit being so negative about him and just think for one second that we may well have a diamond in the rough. His offense is about like that of Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State in that he likes to throw the ball a lot, but if anyone knows anything at all about him, the one thing that changed when he got to Cincinnati was that he started running ball more, though still out of the spread in what is essentially zone reads. I think he'll be fine here once he gets the players he needs to run his team properly. Just be patient.

 

[NashVol11]

Indeed, you can make any number of arguments supporting your claim, VKAman, but every coach has to start somewhere and has to crawl before he sprouts wings and flies. Let's look at some historically great coaches who had little success before they wound up at their destination where they gained their greatest fame:

Ara Parseghian: 36-35-1 at Northwestern; 95-17-4 at Notre Dame*

Darrell Royal: 12-8 at Mississippi State; 5-5 at Washington; 167-47-5 at Texas*

Bear Bryant: 6-2-1 at Maryland; 60-23-5 at Kentucky; 25-14-2 at Texas A&M; 232-46-9 at Alabama* (Granted, he coached teams to a .710 winning percentage or better at every place other than Texas A&M, but he was nowhere near as success at the other schools as he was when he got to Alabama.)

Bobby Bowden: 42-26 at West Virginia; 315-98-4 at Florida State*

Woody Hayes: 19–6 at Denison; 14–5 at Miami (OH); 205–61–10 at Ohio State*

Bo Schembechler: 40-17-3 at Miami (OH); 194-48-5 at Michigan*

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Not every great coach had glamorous statistics before they coached at the school they are most famous at. I'm not saying that Butch Jones is going to be one of these coaches, but I think people need to quit being so negative about him and just think for one second that we may well have a diamond in the rough. His offense is about like that of Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State in that he likes to throw the ball a lot, but if anyone knows anything at all about him, the one thing that changed when he got to Cincinnati was that he started running ball more, though still out of the spread in what is essentially zone reads. I think he'll be fine here once he gets the players he needs to run his team properly. Just be patient.

Parseghian took over a winless team. Bryant took over a 1-7-1 team at Maryland, and at UK he took a 2-8 Kentucky team to 9-0, its first bowl game and first SEC title. These are coaches who made their teams significantly better than they had been before, which is basically the first thing I said. Jones didn't do that.

 

[NashVol11]

Bump. I'd use these same criteria again.

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

I originally posted this in a thread but I think it makes more sense on its own.

Here's pretty much how I evaluate a coach (in no particular order):
1. Record before he got there vs. record with him
2. Conference record
3. Conference titles
4. Record in rivalry games
Winning big games you shouldn't is another one, but I have no idea which games Central Michigan should and should not win.

1. 28-44 in 5 previous seasons under Fulmer, Kiffin, and Dooley. 34-27 in 5 years under Butch. Grade C+
2. 14-24. Grade F
3. Zero. Grade F
4. 0-5 vs Alabama
1-4 vs Florida
2-3 vs Georgia
3-2 vs Carolina
2-2 vs Candy
8-16 overall.333 grade F

 

[NashVol11]

1. 28-44 in 5 previous seasons under Fulmer, Kiffin, and Dooley. 34-27 in 5 years under Butch. Grade C+
2. 14-24. Grade F
3. Zero. Grade F
4. 0-5 vs Alabama
1-4 vs Florida
2-3 vs Georgia
3-2 vs Carolina
2-2 vs Candy
8-16 overall.333 grade F

He looked like he'd reached his ceiling before we hired him. Hopefully, if we have to go the up-and-comer route again, we at least don't repeat that mistake.