I thought I read somewhere that the stars are given based on how soon of an impact a player can usually have on a team. 5* players are expected to have major impact right away. 4* star players are expected to have an impact and are potential future all-americans. 3* players typically need to develop.
This is a blurb about the Rivals rating system:
6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect
6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player
4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about
About Football Ratings
Obviously, many fans are interested in the recruiting process, the ratings, rankings, etc., but in the end its all up to the coaches, their internal assessments, and the best fits for the schemes they choose.
The public services don't always get it right and sometimes the coaches don't either. I figure coaches in the end will do a better job than the public services but coaches can't predict how a player will develop in time because of the human variables only the player can control.
CDD said recently when asked about 3* RB Tom Smith that he had been put on the shelf. Many have seemingly been disappointed in 4* WR Matt Milton. There are others, some surprises, some more disappointments.
About 1/2 of all the players we've signed over the past 2 classes and 1/2 of the players right now on the incoming class are all all-american candidates. Most will likely not win the award simply because winning the award is a numbers game. Few are selected.
One of the guys on our team that I think could really be great is Rajion Neal. IMO he has amazing talent but I sort of get the feeling that he's coasting on his laurels. CDD has even said as much in a round about way. He could be really special in our backfield but right now it doesn't seem like he wants it bad enough. To me as a fan that is disappointing for him and for the team.
When I look at 5*, 4*, or 3*, I tend to think about when they will likely start making a major contribution on a fully stocked roster. 5* should be right away, 4* could be right away, 3* depending on the position maybe in 1-2 years. That is the law of averages but of course there are exceptions due to human and other variables which yeild either surprises or disappointments in most all classes regardless of the number of stars awarded out of HS.
The 3*s that develop into superstars do so because of their internal drive to succeed moreso than their talent and skill sets coming out of HS. Likewise a 4 or 5* can fall flat on his face and be surpassed in time by the 3* simply because the one chose to work his butt off while the other was trying to get by on his HS reputation. JMO.
Bruce Springsteen - Glory Days - YouTube