BTO’s Texas Postgame Report

[VolPack22]

It isn't a matter of calling Texas unranked, it's a matter of pointing out the fact that the NCAA Tournament will be just as tough IF we get there. Texas is not even projected to be a top seeded team. My opinion is it is lunacy to think we would get in with 18 wins and dropping 7 of the last 11 games. When has that ever happened? You say it's unrealistic, but we are facing FIVE road games and none of those teams are named Auburn or Kentucky. We have played that "badly" for multiple games now including our most recent game. The team that played Arizona is simply not the team that has shown up since then. If the recent team continues to show up, we could REALISTICALLY go 4-6 if not 3-7. If we lose to KY and Auburn which is extremely likely and any of the other 3 teams at home, 3-7 looks less like a stretch. 4-6 is especially likely if we are playing like we are right now.

So, why defend trending in the wrong direction.

We shall see. I hope I'm wrong.

Oklahoma in 2017-2018 finished their season losing 8 out of 10 with an overall record of 18-13 (8-10) after the Big 12 Tournament. They were the 9 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. On January 16th, 2018 they were ranked 4th in the country and 14-2. A month later they were unranked and 16-11. That was one of the most precipitous drops I can ever recall. Made the NCAAT only because they had Trey Young imo.

 

[cncchris33]

It isn't a matter of calling Texas unranked, it's a matter of pointing out the fact that the NCAA Tournament will be just as tough IF we get there. Texas is not even projected to be a top seeded team. My opinion is it is lunacy to think we would get in with 18 wins and dropping 7 of the last 11 games. When has that ever happened? You say it's unrealistic, but we are facing FIVE road games and none of those teams are named Auburn or Kentucky. We have played that "badly" for multiple games now including our most recent game. The team that played Arizona is simply not the team that has shown up since then. If the recent team continues to show up, we could REALISTICALLY go 4-6 if not 3-7. If we lose to KY and Auburn which is extremely likely and any of the other 3 teams at home, 3-7 looks less like a stretch. 4-6 is especially likely if we are playing like we are right now.

So, why defend trending in the wrong direction.

We shall see. I hope I'm wrong.

Vanderbilt got in at 19-15 just 5 years ago in a much weaker SEC.

And again, the idea of us missing the tournament, right now, is just a projection of the most negative possible outcome. There isn't much to suggest it is very likely. And while that doesn't mean it's impossible, it is extremely unlikely. BPI Matchup Predictor favors us to win all of our remaining 10 games, FWIW. That is also extremely unlikely.

I really don't understand how you visualize my post as "defending a trend in the wrong direction". In reality, you seem to be having a difficult time separating the idea of defending our résumé and defending our recent play. Those are two different things. And right now, our résumé is elite even if our record and eye test are not. It is why we are still a 4-seed in most projections.

I'll agree, we don't pass the eye test, right now, but we've also just gone thru the meat grinder portion of our schedule. 5 games out of 10 against top-25 teams and we went 6-4 overall.

 

[VolGee4]

It isn't a matter of calling Texas unranked, it's a matter of pointing out the fact that the NCAA Tournament will be just as tough IF we get there. Texas is not even projected to be a top seeded team. My opinion is it is lunacy to think we would get in with 18 wins and dropping 7 of the last 11 games. When has that ever happened? You say it's unrealistic, but we are facing FIVE road games and none of those teams are named Auburn or Kentucky. We have played that "badly" for multiple games now including our most recent game. The team that played Arizona is simply not the team that has shown up since then. If the recent team continues to show up, we could REALISTICALLY go 4-6 if not 3-7. If we lose to KY and Auburn which is extremely likely and any of the other 3 teams at home, 3-7 looks less like a stretch. 4-6 is especially likely if we are playing like we are right now.

So, why defend trending in the wrong direction.

We shall see. I hope I'm wrong.

Because this team has yet to lose to a team below 18 in KenPom. They have literally not done in 20 games what you are suggesting. Sure, they may lose one, but this isn't difficult.

 

[VolGee4]

I appreciate your points, but what I intend to emphasize is that we are not playing good basketball and I think with facing 5 road games and two home games against Auburn and KY means trouble--especially if A&M, Vandy, or Arkansas steal one from us at home. It is my belief that LSU is trending in the wrong direction and that we will need 20 wins to go to the NCAA tournament because the selection committee will determine the Fulkerson that showed up in our only win against a team that is still ranked by the end of the season did not play the majority of the season.

Rankings don't matter. The metrics do. We are 6-6 against Q1/Q2 teams. Guess who is not as good or just as close? Houston (0-2 in Q1 and 4-2 Q1/Q2); Nova is 7-5; Kentucky is 6-4; Texas Tech is 7-5; I could go on.

This is a solid NCAAT team, and it would take a collapse to not get there. This board does this every year.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

I went to the game and sat a few rows behind the TN bench. This was the first game I have seen in person this season, but noticed that Fulky had control of the whiteboard on many occasions and was explaining things to several of the players. Is this common for him?

Yes, he understands what needs to happen and be done. The problem is his level of health. I have no idea how far away from 100% he is but it is not really that close.
He gets gassed after 2 or 3 minutes and he is just not as quick as he was before covid.
Got my fingers crossed he is getting healthier every day.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

The sky is NOT falling!
We currently have a flawed offensive strategy where everybody was looking to Santi to bail us out.
That is now dead.
We do have to shoot free throws better!!!
We do have to get more help from the post!!!
More people have to shoot for a better % from the 3.

I had Texas as a loss, but it was there for the taking.
I have mixed emotions on the loss. I want us to get on an emotional train that is thundering down the track.
But losses can be a better motivator than winning.
Will be watching to see what we do tonight.
We should go 3-1 ... with the trip to MS being the game to watch.
We must hold serve at home, which means I think we have to win tonight.
4-0 is possible.

 

[vegasvolfan]

Rankings don't matter. The metrics do. We are 6-6 against Q1/Q2 teams. Guess who is not as good or just as close? Houston (0-2 in Q1 and 4-2 Q1/Q2); Nova is 7-5; Kentucky is 6-4; Texas Tech is 7-5; I could go on.

This is a solid NCAAT team, and it would take a collapse to not get there. This board does this every year.

Hmm well I have to admit I don't know that much about what you are referring to. Hope you are right! We got a dub tonight!

 

[vegasvolfan]

Because this team has yet to lose to a team below 18 in KenPom. They have literally not done in 20 games what you are suggesting. Sure, they may lose one, but this isn't difficult.

We shall see!

 

[vegasvolfan]

Vanderbilt got in at 19-15 just 5 years ago in a much weaker SEC.

And again, the idea of us missing the tournament, right now, is just a projection of the most negative possible outcome. There isn't much to suggest it is very likely. And while that doesn't mean it's impossible, it is extremely unlikely. BPI Matchup Predictor favors us to win all of our remaining 10 games, FWIW. That is also extremely unlikely.

I really don't understand how you visualize my post as "defending a trend in the wrong direction". In reality, you seem to be having a difficult time separating the idea of defending our résumé and defending our recent play. Those are two different things. And right now, our résumé is elite even if our record and eye test are not. It is why we are still a 4-seed in most projections.

I'll agree, we don't pass the eye test, right now, but we've also just gone thru the meat grinder portion of our schedule. 5 games out of 10 against top-25 teams and we went 6-4 overall.

We shall see! Yes I agree two different things. I was just educated about the Kenpom. I don't know jack about it really. So, I guess we shall see. Got a dub tonight!

 

[vegasvolfan]

Oklahoma in 2017-2018 finished their season losing 8 out of 10 with an overall record of 18-13 (8-10) after the Big 12 Tournament. They were the 9 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. On January 16th, 2018 they were ranked 4th in the country and 14-2. A month later they were unranked and 16-11. That was one of the most precipitous drops I can ever recall. Made the NCAAT only because they had Trey Young imo.

Yeah I guess I'm wrong so far! I hope I stay that way, just concerning play!

 

[VolGee4]

Hmm well I have to admit I don't know that much about what you are referring to. Hope you are right! We got a dub tonight!

Not trying to act like a know-it-all, but those are the metrics that the NCAAT committee will use. If you have time, read up on the NET rankings and KenPom rankings. We are currently 13th in both. The keys are strength of schedule, quality wins, and lack of bad losses.

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

Not trying to act like a know-it-all, but those are the metrics that the NCAAT committee will use. If you have time, read up on the NET rankings and KenPom rankings. We are currently 13th in both. The keys are strength of schedule, quality wins, and lack of bad losses.

Exactly. Would the wins on a neutral court against Texas Tech and at Alabama/Texas been awesome and boosted the Vols' resume? For sure. Are those Q1 losses being held against Tennessee, let alone in terms of any sort of bubble? Of course not!

Tennessee is now 4-0 in Q2 games, and 3-6 in Q1 with four Q1 matches remaining on the schedule. As long as they don't lose one of Vanderbilt (Q3) or Georgia/Missouri (Q4), things are shaping up well for March insofar as seeding.

 

[vegasvolfan]

Not trying to act like a know-it-all, but those are the metrics that the NCAAT committee will use. If you have time, read up on the NET rankings and KenPom rankings. We are currently 13th in both. The keys are strength of schedule, quality wins, and lack of bad losses.

Yeah I was concerned we were headed for some bad losses. If we can put together tonight's O with our typical D, I think we could go deep!